RHP Bailey Ober 
Age on Opening Day 2026: 30 
Service Time: 4 years, 93 days
2023 Salary: $720,000
2024 Salary: $761,580
2025 Salary: $3.55 Million
MLB Trade Rumors Estimate for 2026: $4.6 million

Background
Born in Huntersville, NC, and attending the College of Charleston, Bailey Ober was drafted by the Twins in the 12th round of the 2017 amateur draft, having previously been a 23rd-round selection by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2015. His decision to stay in college one more year made a huge difference in his talent and draft class. He made his major league at 25 years old with the Twins in 2021, going 3-3, 4.19 in 20 starts and 92 ⅓ innings. He has since turned into a regular in the Twins rotation, accruing a 4.08 ERA over 618 MLB innings. He has spent his entire career in Minnesota. 

2025 Season
Ober’s 2025 season was a roller coaster. He started slow and inconsistent, taking longer than usual to find his rhythm. By midseason, he was battling through pain in his left hip — a lingering issue that eventually caught up to him. In July, after a rough stretch where he went 0–5 with a 9.00 ERA and surrendered 14 home runs, Ober landed on the injured list.

Before the injury, Ober had appeared in 27 games, logging 92 innings with 108 hits, 55 runs, 22 walks, and 74 strikeouts, for a 5.28 ERA and a -1.0 WPA. After a month-long rehab stint, he returned to the mound on August 2 against Cleveland and showed noticeable improvement. Over his final 10 starts, he regained command and consistency, posting a 4.80 ERA with 46 strikeouts and just nine walks, raising his WPA to 0.3. It wasn’t a perfect finish, but it was a strong recovery to close out an uneven season.

Overall 2025 Stats: 27 G, 146 1/3 IP, 159 H, 31 BB, 120 K, 5.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP.

Twins Depth at his Position (Starting Pitchers): 
40-man roster – David Festa, Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, Marco Raya, Simeon-Woods Richardson Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Travis Adams
Arbitration-Eligible: Joe Ryan
Triple-A: Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Cory Lewis, John Klein, Aaron Rozek, Kendry Rojas, Connor Prielipp.
Double-A: Ricky Castro, Darren Bowen, Ryan Gallagher, Sam Armstrong, 

Why the Twins Should Offer Him Arbitration:
Despite an uneven 2025, retaining Bailey Ober should be a straightforward decision for the Twins. He’s demonstrated stretches of frontline-caliber pitching in past seasons, remains under 30, and will come at a relatively modest arbitration price. Even for those skeptical of his long-term upside, the combination of cost control, experience, and need makes him a clear asset to keep.

Why the Twins Should Non-Tender Him 
While tendering Ober a contract is a no-brainer, the Twins could weigh the decision to trade him even with his stock depressed. If they aren’t confident his mechanics and velocity will rebound, the front office may seek to flip him to a team needing veteran innings. 

Projection: I think that the Twins keep him, but his future in Minnesota is anything but certain. 

Ober is a solid pitcher, when he is healthy. In fact, he is downright talented. He has amazing command and control of the strike zone; his height and size make him a weapon on the mound. The concern is the staying healthy part, but there is plenty of time in the offseason for him to work on straightening out his physical issues. Even with his injuries, knowing the ethic of Ober, he can come back better and stronger. His previous three seasons remind us of who he is on the mound. 

What do you think about Bailey Ober? Consider his stats and his health, then what is seen on the mound when he is healthy. Are there reasons they should keep him? Trade him away? Explore a buy-low extension? What would you do?