2025 In A Discarded-On-The-Dugout-Floor Nutshell

One of the most valuable players on the 2025 Red Sox was, for two months, one of the worst players in baseball. But at least he was playing baseball at all.

Trevor Story was saved by money. Amidst a Red Sox tenure that had been defined almost entirely by injuries, Story entered the 2025 season healthy, finally. And with that health. . . he proceeded to be one of the worst players in the world for two whole months of the baseball calendar. His OPS bottomed out at .581 on May 28. He’d struck out 67 times in 54 games. He was ugly, unwatchable, and poised to be DFA’d. Most baseball players would have been cut loose at that point, particularly players on a team that had an elite prospect playing the same position down in AAA.

But Trevor Story had money on his side; $72.5 million of it, to be specific, which is what the Red Sox would have owed him through the 2027 season if they’d sent him packing. And so Story got some rope — lots of it, like more rope than the HMS Bounty. And with that rope he fashioned a lifeline for his career.

On June 7, Story collected three hits in a game against the Yankees, including a double. He would collect two hits in each of his next three games, too. Those nine hits represented a full 15% of his total production for the whole season at that point, but he was off. Over the remaining three-plus months of the season, he raised his OPS by 160 points, while somehow staying as healthy as anyone in baseball. He ended the season fourth amongst all big league shortstop in home runs with 25 and a 3.0 fWAR that placed him fourth on team amongst position players.

It was one of the most shocking and incredible turn-arounds I’ve ever seen a baseball player make.

Well, those two months still happened, didn’t they? How much differently would the 2025 Red Sox season have gone if he’d been merely below average in April and May instead of unplayable?

And, for as excited as we all were about his turnaround, his overall numbers still ended up being mostly fine instead of good. He managed to carry a putrid OBP of just .308, 21st amongst all shortstops, and he led all shortstops with a 26.9% strikeout rate. It’s hard to take a close look at his offensive numbers and conclude that he’s a good hitter:

Moreover, his typical excellent defense no longer appears to be typical or excellent. Everyone remembers the rash of throwing errors down the stretch of the season, but he the numbers actually suggest he was not just a mediocre glove man all year long, but a terrible one, as his -8 fielding run value was 40th amongst all players who played at least 200 innings at shortstop. And it wasn’t just the arm that was a problem, either, as he finished with a -7 in Outs Above Average, fourth-worst amongst shortstops.

His overall value was buoyed by his excellent baserunning and, ironically, his pristine health and accumulated playing time. But at this point in his career, his baserunning, 25-homer power, and solid-ish glovework (if not his arm) appear to be the only positive traits Trevor Story brings to the table.

Ironically, Story’s two best games actually came before his turnaround. He collected three hits including a homer and knocked in all three runs in a win over the White Sox in mid-April. Then he homered twice against those same White Sox the next week. But I’m saying his best moment came on September 17, when he broke the American League record for most steals without being caught at 31. When you consider how long Major League Baseball has been around for, it’s amazing that anyone ever does anything that hasn’t been done before.

How much do the Red Sox need Trevor Story?

That would’ve seemed like a really silly question coming into 2025. And, as evidenced above, even after his career revival, he’s just not that valuable of a ballplayer overall and probably should be moved off the shortstop position.

And yet, as we stand here today, we have no idea who will play second, third, or shortstop for the 2026 Red Sox. Alex Bregman is reportedly opting-out; the Kristian Campbell second base experiment appears to be dead (a mercy killing); and planning on Romy Gonzalez to be an everyday infielder doesn’t seem sound. Marcelo Mayer is the only player we can pencil in for one of those positions next year, and he has yet to prove that he can either hit big league pitching or stay healthy. Somehow, Trevor Story — a player who dragged the roster down for years — may now be irreplaceable. Which brings us too..

Like Alex Bregman, Trevor Story has the ability to opt-out of the remaining two years on his Red Sox contract. Unlike Alex Bregman, the Red Sox can negate his opt-out by signing him up for a third season for a hefty $25 million. Until just a few months ago, it seemed impossible that Story would opt-out, and impossible that the Red Sox would yoke him back in if he did.

So will he opt-out now? No one is going to offer him a contract that tops the $25 million per year he makes now . But I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to think that someone would offer him a deal that pays him more than $55 million over 3-4 years (in addition to the two years and $50 million remaining on his contract, he has a $5 million buy-out). Moreover, I think he knows that the Red Sox need him.

It’s a tough call, but I think he opts out and I think the Red Sox negate it. Then I think they move him to second base. It’s Marcelo time.