The Mariners bounced back from a 1-5 homestand with a sweep in San Diego, outscoring the Padres 15-3 in three games. The rotation was good, the bullpen was good, and the lineup was good. The Mariners now hold the top spot in the AL West heading into one of the “friendlier” stretches of the season — three of their next six series are against the AL’s cellar dwellers. It comes at a good time, too. The Mariners lineup has cooled to average in May after having one of the org’s best months ever in April. But they’ve shown massive home-road splits this month, with a .244 wOBA and 31.1% strikeout rate at home, and a .332 wOBA and 19.3% strikeout rate on the road. The rotation, missing its top three arms, has struggled to pitch deep into games, exposing a shallow bullpen. The next three weeks will take the Mariners to the summer months with a (hopefully) more complete roster.
At a Glance
Mariners
White Sox
Mariners
White Sox
Game 1
Monday, May 19 | 4:40 pm
RHP Luis Castillo
RHP Davis Martin
59%
41%
Game 2
Tuesday, May 20 | 4:40 pm
LHP Jhonathan Díaz
RHP Bryse Wilson
61%
39%
Game 3
Wednesday, May 21 | 11:10 am
RHP Logan Evans
RHP Shane Smith
52%
48%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
Team Overview
Overview
White Sox
Mariners
Edge
Overview
White Sox
Mariners
Edge
Batting (wRC+)
77 (15th in AL)
115 (3rd in AL)
Mariners
Fielding (OAA)
-6 (12th)
-7 (14th)
White Sox
Starting Pitching (FIP-)
109 (9th)
93 (6th)
Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)
108 (12th)
104 (10th)
Mariners
Last year, the White Sox were 14-33 through 47 games. They would finish as the worst team ever. This year, the White Sox are 14-33 through 47 games. They just got swept by 18 runs at the Cubs. There’s reason to believe this year’s squad is a bit improved (their negative run differential is about half what it was at this point last year), and the Rockies seem to be redefining what “worst ever” means. But the White Sox remain one of the weakest opponents the Mariners will face this year. Still, the White Sox took a home series against the Astros earlier this month and a home series against the Red Sox in April. They have a respectable -1 run differential at Rate Field, which has played colder than any other park this year. It’s expected to be cold, wet and windy this week. The series won’t be a breeze.
White Sox Lineup
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Chase Meidroth
SS
R
92
15.2%
12.0%
0.074
114
Miguel Vargas
3B
R
180
17.2%
9.4%
0.176
114
Joshua Palacios
RF
L
89
24.7%
10.1%
0.065
69
Luis Robert Jr.
CF
R
176
29.5%
11.9%
0.125
69
Edgar Quero
C
S
94
14.9%
10.6%
0.037
106
Andrew Vaughn
1B
R
182
23.6%
3.8%
0.132
45
Josh Rojas
2B
L
39
33.3%
10.3%
0.000
28
Tim Elko
DH
R
22
31.8%
4.5%
0.286
93
Brooks Baldwin
LF
S
142
26.8%
4.9%
0.115
64
The White Sox lineup is bad. There’s some chance you’ll recognize more names on their coaching staff. Rookie shortstop Chase Meidroth has been interesting, showing a great eye and contact rate while batting leadoff. Fellow rookie Edgar Quero has also shown a great eye and contact rate, albeit with a bit more power than Meidroth. Miguel Vargas, who the White Sox acquired from the Dodgers last year in the Michael Kopech deal, struggled early but has been hot for a month now and hit four homers last week. Everyone else has been bad. Luis Robert Jr. doubled his walk rate this year and leads MLB in stolen bases at 17. He also has a 30% strikeout rate with no power. Andrew Vaughn has pushed his walk rate to a new low as a first baseman with no power. Former Mariner Josh Rojas is looking for his first extra base hit after starting the year on the injured list.
Probable Pitchers
Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Davis Martin
49 1/3
15.7%
5.7%
10.7%
45.7%
3.65
4.26
Luis Castillo
49 1/3
18.2%
9.3%
6.5%
43.5%
3.65
3.86
RHP Davis Martin
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
29.3%
93.5
98
92
103
0.357
Sinker
7.5%
92.3
97
Cutter
22.0%
88.9
94
86
106
0.341
Changeup
24.1%
90.0
99
61
92
0.363
Curveball
2.4%
77.7
Slider
14.7%
83.8
97
89
95
0.426
Across his first three seasons in the majors, encompassing 162.2 innings, Davis Martin has posted FIPs of 4.28, 4.27, and 4.24. While the peripherals have stayed relatively stable, his ERA has dropped from 4.83 in his rookie season to 3.65 this year. He uses a kitchen sink approach to keep batters off balance, though none of his individual pitches are standouts. With a command-over-stuff profile and deep six-pitch repertoire, you might expect that his contact quality metrics would be driving his success. Unfortunately, his low ERA is a pretty significant mirage; he’s allowed a 47.5% hard hit rate this year, a ten point increase over last year, and batters are barreling up his pitches more than 10% of the time. Regression is coming.
Game 2 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Bryse Wilson
33
12.4%
9.2%
17.8%
35.7%
6.00
6.47
Jhonathan Díaz
30 2/3
19.9%
7.4%
16.7%
53.7%
5.87
5.10
Díaz’s stats from minor leagues
RHP Bryse Wilson
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
12.3%
92.2
98
Sinker
26.0%
91.9
108
69
90
0.369
Cutter
24.7%
88.1
89
86
60
0.528
Changeup
19.3%
85.8
86
47
88
0.385
Curveball
17.7%
80.4
107
57
65
0.450
It’s been a long time since Bryse Wilson was a top prospect for the Braves; nearly a decade in fact. In that time, he has bounced around a bunch of teams, carving out a role as a swingman and long reliever for the Pirates, Brewers, and now White Sox. Every rebuilding club needs innings eaters, no matter their quality, and Wilson just happens to be the guy for Chicago right now. He has eaten innings, but has done nothing else to really benefit the Sox.
Game 3 Pitching Matchup
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Shane Smith
48 1/3
21.3%
7.9%
4.2%
43.8%
2.05
3.17
Logan Evans
21
15.1%
8.6%
7.7%
37.1%
2.57
4.15
RHP Shane Smith
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Pitch
Frequency
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
43.1%
95.0
91
131
94
0.310
Sinker
7.1%
94.9
97
Changeup
21.8%
90.0
103
111
83
0.296
Curveball
8.1%
81.5
96
Slider
19.4%
88.7
94
77
79
0.289
Shane Smith’s success has been the brightest beacon of hope for the White Sox this year. A Rule 5 pick from the Brewers, Smith has had a wild path to the majors. He threw all of 10.1 innings in college thanks to injury and COVID, signed with Milwaukee as an undrafted free agent, and very quickly rose through their system as a one-inning reliever. He only made the switch to the rotation midway through last year, but gaudy strikeout numbers in the minors made him an enticing pick for the White Sox, who had the roster room to take a risk on someone like Smith. Across his first nine starts in the big leagues, Smith has been brilliant, pitching to a 2.05 ERA and a 3.15 FIP.
The Big Picture:
AL West Standings
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Recent Form
Mariners
26-19
0.578
—
W-L-W-W-W
Astros
24-22
0.522
2.5
W-L-W-L-W
Rangers
25-23
0.521
2.5
W-W-L-W-L
Athletics
22-25
0.468
5.0
L-L-L-L-L
Angels
20-25
0.444
6.0
L-L-W-W-W
The Astros and Rangers split their four-game set last weekend, keeping them tied in the standings and well behind the M’s. Houston travels to Tampa Bay this week while the Rangers head to New York for three games against the Yankees. In a huge upset, the Angels swept the Dodgers during Rivalry Weekend and now travel to Sacramento to face the Athletics.