Top 200 Starting Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball 2026

Let’s rank the best 200 starting Pitchers to draft in fantasy baseball for 2026 way too early with in-depth blurbs I normally save for my February article. Strap in y’all.

The fantasy baseball season just ended and before we all hibernate, run the numbers, and produce polished projections, I feel it’s important that I put out what I like to call my “rough draft” of February 2026’s Top 300 Starting Pitchers when my opinions and thoughts of 2026 are still fresh. In short, it means I spend the next two weeks getting everything on paper to review the season behind us and rank the top 200 starting pitchers for 2026 fantasy baseball before outside biases seep in.

What I’m trying to say is, today’s rankings will be vastly different in February. I have no idea how different – if I knew that, they wouldn’t be different – and I’ll use this foundation to discuss players through the off-season, helping me determine who I’m actually higher or lower on than originally thought, while I have yet to do my complete dives into each player’s season. Please don’t hate me for this.

 

How To Use These Rankings

 

These rankings mean nothing if we’re not on the same page about how to draft for the season ahead. Remember, you are not drafting a Best Ball team – on those teams you are stuck with the arms you draft for the entire year. Because it’s a game of burn and churn, my rankings reflect a different upside/floor weight than an attempt to replicate the 2026 end of season Player Rater rankings. In other words, these are Draft Rankings, not ROS Rankings.

With that in mind, I wanted to focus on two tenets that are reflected in these rankings:

1. Draft FOUR starting pitchers I trust to never drop during the season

There’s a classic phrase I hear during draft season. I need to get that one SP I can rely on in the early rounds. I don’t adhere to this thought most seasons and I especially don’t for 2026. Pitcher injuries are awfully random (save for the rare few with heightened risks: Glasnow, deGrom, etc.), and despite all the rhetoric you and I emit, SP volume will remain the most difficult part of pre-season analysis. The good news? This year’s SP landscape is massive in the top half, allowing you to create that foundation among many instead of few.

Consider your seasons of old and think about the pitchers who have stuck around on your teams throughout the year and compare them to those you’ve enlisted and returned to the waiver wire. Your goal in your draft is to snag four of the first group, opening up the rest of your SP inventory to plan for the wire, take chances, and make mistakes. No, it is unlikely for all four to stay healthy, and that amplifies the necessity to grab four of these pitchers.

The range for me at this point in October ends around the early 50s at Kevin Gausman, which is a little deeper than normal seasons.

2. Draft Pitchers You Can Determine QUICKLY In Season To Hold or Drop

It is so important to draft players at the end of your rotation who you can move on from quickly during the year in favor of other pitchers who are displaying new skills and could break out across the season. The last thing you want is to be stuck with an arm from your draft who drags you down all season and prevents you from snagging a legit SP #4 or better in April. This can be translated as “Don’t Draft Tobys” (which actually isn’t quite right this year as there’s more quality volume available in the deeper rounds than usual) and it can also be translated as “THIS IS NOT A BEST BALL LEAGUE”, but in the end, it’s ensuring that you are drafting with the mindset of the burn-and-churn that comes with playing fantasy baseball. Just because you like that strikeout-upside arm doesn’t mean you won’t be anxious and frustrated throughout April as they get only a few starts and fail to go further than five innings. Grab guys who will give you value early and their floor outlines that you can move on quickly. Nothing worse than a poor start that has you still thinking they’re fine… for the entirety of April.

And yes, you will always be able to find value on the waiver wire. Don’t believe me? Here are Starting Pitchers who had a 2024 ADP of #290 or later and could be snagged in your leagues:

 

2025 SP Drafted Past ADP #290

 

And that’s not even including this rag-tag crew containing many pitchers you were able to grab at specific points of the season for legit value:

 

Helpful Waiver Wire Pick Ups Past ADP #290

 

The whole goal is to win your league, not leave the draft getting appropriate value for the round you picked them. Grab SPs who are easily identifiable as early drops who also have a ceiling that is far above their draft value.

Now you understand. That’s where I’m coming from with these rankings and it’s important to not treat them as a “Best Ball” ranking – you’re not drafting a team you hold for the full year, instead you’re drafting a team with anticipation that you’re burning and churning at the back-end of your roster. It’s the way you win your leagues.

Sorry to be so repetitive, I have to hammer this point as it combats the standard projection or player rater approach

 

Early 2026 Team Schedules

 

One element that I often don’t discuss this early when doing rankings is the expected opening weekend schedule. It doesn’t have much of an impact on these rankings, but as we get closer to the start of the year and rotations become clearer after trades, signings, and injuries, it may reveal some late-round targets to sneak in a start or two in your head-to-head leagues that may turn into season-long holds (like Kris Bubic and Andrew Abbott this past season).

First, here are the individual offense ranks:

Team Offense Ranks Way-To-Early via PLV Projections

Note: The Athletics are still ATH.

I’m sure it’ll change before the start of 2026 + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.

In essence, we should only be considering being conservative against the Top tier offenses (and maybe some Solid tiers as well), while take a chance here or there against the Poor offenses (I’m sure some will surprise us!). Everything else in the middle is up for grabs.

And here is how the start of 2026 shapes up:

Also note: These offensive tiers are the final tiers from the end of the 2025 season and I’m willing to wager a significant number of teams shift tiers before the start of 2025.

Thanks to Kyle Bland for putting together this table!

 

Team Offense Ranks Way-To-Early via PLV Projections

I could do a whole thing about which rotations are affected most (Ryne Nelson potentially getting three tough starts or the #5 SP options on the Nats, Cards, Giants, Angels, Athletics, Atlanta, Tigers could have it rough early, etc.), and yet, it’s all so in flux that I’m not going to do that now. Remember, the opening weekend rotation order is so often out of whack and there are too many factors right now to outline it.

HOWEVER, you can take into consideration the general early schedules and if there are teams to target for confidence early, like the Yankees, Red Sox, Reds, and Astros, who have generally fantastic schedules for the first few weeks. Or the Marlins and Brewers, Cubs, and Mets who face some terrible offenses for the first week. There will be some sneaky streams there.

 

Okay I’m done prefacing. It’s time for the rankings. There are two tables here – The Top 100, then 101-the rest – and per tradition, I ask you to:

 

Tier 1 – AGA

These are the rare few who are expected to go 6+ each start with all-around production each night. Some have more Win value than Strikeout value but are the clear studs among the landscape.

 

1. Garrett Crochet (BOS) – Sort these arms any way you want. I’m favoring Crochet given his wide arsenal, higher Win chance, and less reliance on 98+ mph velocity.

2. Paul Skenes (PIT) – Two years of the elitest of elite ratios are hard to argue against, though his strikeout and Win totals are likely lower than Crochet and Skubal.

3. Tarik Skubal (DET) – I don’t have a great reason to put Skubal third, but Skenes has him beat in ratios, and Crochet has him beat in Wins + Strikeouts. So he’s the mid? Maybe? Take your favorite.

 

Tier 2 – Ripped Aces

All of these arms have injury dings against them (some more than others), but on a per-inning basis, they are as good as those in the top tier, if not better in some cases.

 

4. Bryan Woo (SEA) – This feels high. You can change it! I could, but I simply don’t know who to replace him with. Woo seems like Wheeler 2.0 with his great heaters, developing secondaries, and tenacity to finish the sixth frame, and the only concern is his tumultuous health in 2024 and a pec injury at the very end of the season (that shouldn’t linger). On a per-start basis, he’s the safest in this tier with a higher volume ceiling than The Inquisitor (Yamamoto).

5. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) – Despite pitching in a six-man rotation, The Inquisitor made 30 starts, though I wasb not suggesting managers let him fly for his Japan Series outing on March 18th (5 IP of 1 ER ball across 72 pitches!). I imagine it’ll be more of the same as the rock inside the Dodgers’ oft-injured rotation, with his volume cap forcing me to place him under Woo.

6. Max Fried (ATL) – Save for a few injury concerns in 2024 and a 2025 valley of production in the heart of summer, Fried has been absurdly consistent. He’s as all-around as it gets and was just eleven strikeouts away from the coveted two-hundred benchmark, rooted in his ability to regularly go 6+ frames. He could be top 90th percentile in Wins, Ks, ERA, and WHIP next year. There’s such minimal risk.

7. Cole Ragans (KCR) – PEW PEW PEW. Those worried about his rotator cuff should feel far better that he came back healthy at the end of the year, opening the door for a regular ramp-up next year. The Royals are not going to baby him.

8. Logan Gilbert (SEA) – I hate two things about Gilbert: He’s routinely worse away from the benefits of @TEA, and he still struggles to feature arsenal consistency. We saw more high heaters in his final five starts (54/55%) that may indicate a philosophy change (38% prior = Blegh), though he returned just one heater whiff in his final three games. Sigh. It’s awfully strange to rank a pitcher in the Top 10 who is a tough call on the road and has an inconsistent arsenal, but here we are. Sometimes you have to just keep them in your lineup and close your eyes.

9. Hunter Greene (CIN) – I may go back-and-forth on this one throughout the off-season, but Greene has yet to have an arm injury and carries the same elite ratio + strikeout talent of the top tier. With his newfound ability to throw sliders consistently for strikes, the low walk rate should continue, opening the door for his first 180-inning season.

10. George Kirby (SEA) – Part of me wants to rank him higher than Gilbert, which sounds bonkers given the horrific floor he displayed multiple times this season. However, he’s shifted his approach to go BSB with heaters and sinkers up + sliders and curveballs down and I love it. Give me that for a full season and there’s a bold prediction to be made that he’ll strikeout more batters than Gilbert. IT’S POSSIBLE.

11. Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) – Here’s another difficult one. Sanchez increased his velocity from 94.5 to flirtation with 96 mph, then had a forearm injury scare, and brought the heater down to 95 mph and change (still better!), and as we endured all of this emotion, we woke up on June 9th after 13 starts looking at a glistening 3.10 ERA and 27% strikeout rate, but with a horrific 1.29 WHIP fueled by a 9% walk rate. Yikes. All the helium and love you hear about Sanchez comes from the three months that followed: 2.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 26% strikeout rate, and 3% walk rate. Hot DANG! That was over nineteen starts where he averaged 6 2/3 frames per start (whoa). you can thank 12 point jumps in strike rate from 59% to 71% on both his slider and signature changeup, which I’m inclined to believe will stick for next year. So fine, give me the Win machine with a ton of volume at a strikeout rate that will likely regress closer to 23/24%.

 

Tier 3 – AGA with Questions

These arms do not have sub 3.00 ERA, sub 1.00 WHIP, 30%+ strikeout upside aking to those in the first two tiers (or not the absurd floors of Wheeler and Burnes). You’re going to get a large variety of opinions on what these rankings should be across the winter and don’t get too hung up on one vs. another. They are all more similar than you think.

 

12. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) – He’d be in the second tier if we knew what the Dodgers were planning for 2026. It’s not out of the question he’s limited once again, let alone the expected six-man rotation where he won’t be treated like a stable anchor ala Yamamoto. 30% strikeouts are possible, of course, it’s just the volume in question.

13. Chris Sale (ATL) – Oh hey, the volume game! You’ll hear me say this a lot: Sale + a 12-teamer streamer for a season (at worst) = what overall SP? Dunno, and maybe we get stupid lucky and find a 150 IP in here.

14. Jacob deGrom (TEX) – Pigs have apparently flown with deGrom going 172.2 innings in 2025, though it does make a bit of sense given the first season he’s had a healthy elbow since 2019 and he was conscientious of not going max effort all the time. It would be foolish to assume that volume for another season, though, given his age and a possible TJS-honeymoon ending before September next season. Oh, and his fastball command has gotten worse and that’s kinda annoying.

15. Tyler Glasnow (LAD) – Volume this, volume that, you know what actually bothers me about Glasnow? His slider. What is up with that thing? It fell to average SwStr rates with a terrible strike rate, which is startling for a pitch that fueled his breakout from PEAS to AGA.

16. Hunter Brown (HOU) – I know, I’m the weird analyst who appears to have “take lock” and just sticks to his guns, right? Well, at least I have Brown in the Top 20 this year, though his near 30% strikeout rate comes with an average SwStr rate, with unsustainable putaway rates on his four-seamer, curve, and especially the slider. His 97/98 mph velocity fell over the year, too, and I’m not ready to call him a four-seamer/sinker arm on the same level of Woo or Wheeler – they lack the extension, vert, or HAVAA to make them exceptional outside of velocity. But sure, he’ll help throughout the year.

17. Joe Ryan (MIN) – The season was worse as he continued, with HRs catching up to him once again. And yet, I just can’t quit him. The four-seamer is elite and the secondaries should be good enough for another productive season.

18. Kyle Bradish (BAL) – Bradish’s slider and curveball are stellar and even if I’m a little concerned about the efficacy of his four-seamer and sinker, he’s set to pitch every five days with a long leash for the Orioles, who should win more games this year. I think we’ve learned that returning for a month or two post-TJS sets up former studs for a solid full year the following season.

19. Shane Bieber (FA) – Like Bradish, Bieber’s breakers are looking great and unlike Bradish, he’s even sporting harder fastballs. I see Bradish and Bieber both as high volume arms with all-around ability, creating a higher floor than the exciting fun arms of Tier 4 and 5.

 

 

Tier 3.5 – Pitcher List Friends

 

Hey you. You’re reading this way before any normal person would think about 2026 fantasy baseball. Why? Because you’re one of us.

So why aren’t you in our Discord talking baseball every day with the kindest community on the internet?

Or using our Live Draft Assistant with our 2026 rankings update in mid-November?

You can with PL+ and PL Pro. Join our Discord and read every article ad-free for as little as $4 per month with promo code EARLYLIST20 to get 20% off any annual Pitcher List subscription. That’s 20 cents a day for a premium Pitcher List experience. Surely zero ads and great people are worth a pair of dimes, no?

Sign up here and get 20% off yearly PL+ and PL Pro subscription for 20% off with promo code EARLYLIST20: Pitcherlist.com/Premium

 

Tier 4 – Why Am I Taking Risk This Early?

These guys should be aces, but their warts make us concerned they will miss the mark over a full year. I hope all of them make me look really dumb in a good way, but they can absolutely make me look dumb in a bad way.

 

20. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) – Boy do I want to put him in the Top 5. Sadly, I have concerns that the Brewers will continue to mess around with his volume and routine, preventing the upside of your standard stud AGA who averages at least six frames for 30+ starts. But yes, he’s incredible and if he gets even a hair better at making adjustments during at-bats to find the zone, he’ll be unhittable.

21. Blake Snell (LAD) – I don’t know. Snell has proven himself to be who he is – inconsequential for three months, then a stud in the second half – and it doesn’t seem right to assume otherwise at this point. That does hand-wave the chance that Snell actually pitches in spring and performs well early, which would turn him into a Top 10 SP easily. He has one of the wider ranges of outcomes inside the Top 30.

22. Shota Imanaga (CHC) – The man of prophecy is what he is. He’s hard to hit four-seamers with great splitters and sweepers, deftly doing what he can to prevent his nemesis (the long ball) from ruining his day. The volatility of HRs makes him a little less appealing than others, especially with a strikeout rate that could fall closer to 20% than 25% in the year ahead if he struggles to get the splitter down. There is a sense that Imanaga has already displayed his peak, too.

23. Freddy Peralta (MIL) – I feel like I’ve been a little too down on Peralta, but then again, his value this year was propped up a bit by his high win total that likely won’t replicate next year.  He also benefited from the deadened ball (far fewer HRs) and lowered his WHIP massively without a reduction in walk rate via an unsustainable 6.3 hits-per-nine, which forces me to push him into this fourth tier. Sorry fella.

24. Nick Pivetta (SDP) – He finally had a sub-4.00 ERA season and it was awesome. You can thank the deadened ball for his massive HR drop and you’re going to hear a lot of analysts say “His ERA will likely be in the middle of the two”, referring to an ERA around 3.50 or so. Why? Because that seems super logical. He won’t be this good, but the days of 4.30 ERA seasons are likely in the past. It also helps massively that Pivetta is pitching inside San Diego, known for reducing HRs in the first few months. Take note.

25. Eury Pérez (MIA) – I really like Pérez, though I need to be careful. His heater is fantastic and the Marlins are making it apparent that he’ll be granted a long leash for 2026, yet I see two major issues: 1) The Marlins’ defense was an atrocity and could remain the same entering next year. 2) I’m wishcasting that Pérez will come into form with both his in-zone fastball command and find a reliable secondary for both RHB and LHB. The fastball is so good that I want to ignore that latter concern, but I can’t raise him much higher in the ranks given the odds he simply doesn’t take that step.

 

 

Tier 5 – I Can’t Help Myself

These are the high upside arms who could very likely take a large leap forward and demand the AGA tag before too long. I absolutely love them all and arguably should have some higher or lower, I’m sure. They don’t have quite as high of a floor as I’d like, and yet, they all can be Top 10 SP studs.

 

26. Ryan Pepiot (TBR) – Yeah, I love Pepiot for next year and the reasoning is simple: His home park was George Steinbrenner Field (Incredibly difficult to pitch there) and now will be restored to Tropicana Field (Eno mentioned that Pepiot likened it to his pitching lab – “The ball moves as it should”). That means fewer HRs, less volatility, and a season with the training wheels off. It has all the makings of a breakout season.

27. Cam Schlittler (NYY) – Schlittler vs. McLean is awfully tough for me. The Yankees have displayed their lack of fear to overwork the young talent, with Cam reaching 90+ pitches often and opening the door for six frames with many Wins for 2026. His high-octane fastball sets a great foundation for his cutter and curve, which should become a more consistent trio with more reps. The only true concern is health given his 98 mph velocity that climbed quickly across the last three years merged with a career-high workload in 2025. I’m not one to ding pitchers too harshly for injury risks (especially pitchers who haven’t showcased it directly yet) and I’m expecting quality from the onset.

28. Drew Rasmussen (TBR) – Rasmussen had his season of being on an incredibly frustrating leash while pitching in a terrible park and still gave you roughly 150 innings of production. Better park + a longer leash should return a great arm, though I can’t help but have concerns that the Rays will keep his workload down given his lengthy injury history. I also wish he could find his sweeper or curve, which disappeared across the season and made strikeouts harder to find. At the end of the day, Rasmussen shouldn’t hurt you (those three inning games are a thing of the past, right?) and there’s value in that.

29. Michael King (SDP) – I want to rank King higher, but he just had a lost season and it’s hard to expect him to fall right back into being the command-freak of old. After all, his 2024 began without a feel for his sweeper and there may be some frustrations along the way next year. Oh, and the whole “Will he be healthy?” thing exists, too.

30. Dylan Cease (FA) – So, uh, Cease is not this bad. You know that, we all know that. And yet, it never ended. Now he’ll head to another team, have a proper off-season, make some tweaks, and return with the same high stuff four-seamer and slider + likely something that will bring back the old Cease. It’s 200 strikeouts here, y’all. I can’t say no.

31. Chase Burns (CIN) – It’s hard to earn 10+ strikeouts across four starts and suddenly regress to a 23% strikeout rate or so. The dude hurls 100 mph with a deadly slider and his command improved after the early Rookie jitters subsided. Will he come into his own with a third pitch? Or can he simply be Greene 2.0 with a slightly worse fastball? HRs are likely going to be a problem, which has me hesitant to push him up any further.

 

Tier 6 – Holly

I don’t expect you to drop any of these pitchers across the year, but I have noticed that the premium “safe” options of old do not distance themselves enough from better options later. So instead, I have them ranked below the Cherry Bomb types in Tier 4 and 5. And I didn’t know where to put Chandler and Luzardo, okay?

 

32. Robbie Ray (SFG) – Ray added the changeup and stuffed a production sandwich between two pieces of struggling bread in April & September. Never write that again. I won’t. I don’t love his volatility and I worry it gets worse from here, not better. The changeup worked at times, the slider and curve went in-and-out, and I wonder if he can actually survive with his fastball upstairs as much as he did. At least he pitches in San Francisco, though he could be traded at the deadline if the Giants aren’t faring well.

33. Logan Webb (SFG) – Webb looked like a strikeout fiend with a proper four-pitch mix in April and May, then it unraveled as the season unfolded, with legit struggles in the second half. The WHIP is the biggest question mark for me, which ultimately hurt managers given the volume attached to it. I might be underestimating Webb this time around (how can I favor those Cherry Bomb youngins instead? They don’t have the same upside in terms of productive volume!) and I can’t wait to yell at my 2026 self as I put him at the end of Tier 5. Then again, it was a 1.34 WHIP in the second half across thirteen starts when he mainly went sinker/sweeper/change.

34. Framber Valdez (FA) – We saw Valdez terrorize managers for the first half of 2024, then flip the script with one of the greatest second halves you’ll see, via absurd feel for his curveball. It was the reverse in 2025, with Valdez’s hook dominating until it hit a clear wall, leading to a horrific second half before entering free agency. Welcome to the man who I never draft because of his maddening nature. I may be raising him once we know where he signs and if I had to wager, I’d say Valdez has more days with the curve than without it, though the volatility shouldn’t be overlooked.

35. Nick Lodolo (CIN) – Lodolo just pitched better than any year of his career. His command was stellar, but the ERA climbed a bit when he returned from injury at the end of the season, masking a brilliant campaign. If he can stay healthy again, expect Lodolo to pick up where he left off and quietly produce once again.

36. Bubba Chandler (PIT) – I had Chandler at the end of Tier 5 and part of me still does. His heater is just so good, including absurd precision upstairs when he finally got the chance to start. His secondaries are solid, though the gyro 89 mph slider didn’t miss many bats, with just an 11% SwStr to RHB (blegh). It’s heater + slider + changeup and the fastball isn’t quite as elite as some others, while those two secondaries need a touch more polish. In other words, this isn’t a destined too good to fail starter, and I hate that he’s on the Pirates, who may still limit him next year. All that said, he throws 98 mph dotted four-seamers. He’ll help your teams.

37. Jesús Luzardo (PHI) – Yes, the 20 ER in two games in the middle of the season ruined everything. His new sweeper was a gamechanger and the Phillies are a solid fit for him. There will be annoying days, though.

 

Tier 7 – Probably Holly

Tier 6 either has a better track record or look better on paper than these below. This is the last tier where I’m confident you won’t drop these arms through the full season, though it gets far muddier by the end.

 

38. Nolan McLean (NYM) – I’ve flip-flopped so many times on McLean and I literally just did it again, raising him into Tier 6 and now back down to Tier 7. The argument for McLean is the stud performances since his callup and the vision of him as an anchor for the Mets in 2026 with likely solid ratios and many Wins. However, I worry about his approach to LHB (four-seamer isn’t elite and changeup + curve need more consistency), and I’m shocked to see the sweeper held a sub 10% SwStr rate last year (albeit, many called strikes) to RHB, relying on sinker called strikes for his punchouts. It all screams unsustainable, even if I have more faith in McLean than others to adapt given his quick rise to success after becoming a pitcher later in his development than most.

39. Cade Horton (CHC) – Am I allowed to be jazzed for a kid with a 20% strikeout rate? It’s hard not to be a little skeptical of his 7.2 hit-per-nine with an ICR rate just under 40%, but I see Horton as a pitcher who has a good floor based on Chicago’s elite defense with room to grow to find more strikeouts via breakers and changeups – both the sweeper and changeup held a 20%+ SwStr rate. After his rookie season of 118 innings, expect Horton to go every five days without fail.

40. Trevor Rogers (BAL) – That was wild, wasn’t it? Is Rogers really that good? It’s really hard to convince myself that Rogers can repeat the results with 93 mph meh four-seamers + changeups down, plus some solid sweepers if we’re lucky, among sprinkles of other offerings. Then again, so many southpaws with changeups had success this year despite their low-90s velocity, so why can’t they go another round? Seriously, I have no idea.

41. Ranger Suárez (FA) – Suarez’s command was spectacular for most of the season and he’s displayed that feel more and more as he gets more frames under his belt. I see him as a step up from most of the other southpaws who “overperformed” last year given his track record, though if he signs outside of Philly, I may have to lower him a few spots. You don’t want to disrupt what has clearly worked for him and it may not be replicated elsewhere.

42. Aaron Nola (PHI) – It will be even year Nola, which means everything is going to be A-OK, y’all. But seriously, he got off on the wrong foot, allowed 9 ER as he hit the IL, and had a few stumbles in the second half as he got settled back into the rotation. The velocity is good, the curve is still great (elite…?) and his changeup command is there. I’m not expecting peak Nola at all, but a solid ratio arm with good volume and more strikeouts than his contemporaries seems right.

43. Sandy Alcantara (MIA) – He wasn’t Sandy until the final month. Just trade him, Miami. PLEASE. He found the changeup (finally) and if you let him thrive in a better organization, you know he’s going to have himself a season. Sidenote: I still can’t believe the Marlins let him throw so many innings in his first season back from TJS, but then again, why wouldn’t they if they’re trading him?

44. Bryce Miller (SEA) – I can’t help but continue to worry about Miller outside of @TEA, though I have to wonder if his four-seamer + sinker + splitter combo is the key. Yes, there’s a chance something else clicks in the arsenal too, but let’s not wishcast here. He should be let loose for consistent innings next year with the rest of his buddies and there is legit upside if he can find four-seamer consistency.

45. Edward Cabrera (MIA) – Is he healthy? Is he going to stay in Miami? I don’t love his situation down in Florida and if he’s staying put, I question if he’ll be able to make the in-season adjustments he needs to make when things inevitably get off-course. That said, projections are sure to be down on him as they underate the changes made this year to dramatically lower his walk rate, and given health, ECab should be a beneficial member of any rotation.

46. Sonny Gray (STL) – Yes, he can be Gray when the command isn’t quite there or batters get hold of his fastballs. He’ll also have a great home park and likely a strong defense behind him once again, and oscillate through the year while being more Sonny than Gray. Just plug and forget.

47. Gavin Williams (CLE) – What are you going to be, huh? I JUST DON’T KNOW. He’s four-seamer + sinker + sweeper + curve + rare cutter these days, with varying extension and velocity, and he found outs far better than expected in the second half as he rarely gave us the same thing twice. I don’t know what to make of it outside of “Hey, he had success and he could do it again.” I really question if I can trust his command or not.

48. Andrew Abbott (CIN) – Welcome to the trio of southpaws with a changeup that we all don’t believe can do it for a second year in a row. Abbott has bewildered us in the past where he’s outperformed for longer than expected and I’m adjusting my approach this year to understand that potential Holly arms are easier to hit and should be valued highly, just like the potential strikeout darlings. So here we are, giving a nod to Abbott that he can perform the show once again.

49. Noah Cameron (KCR) – Cameron is a little more believable on paper, but has a shorter track record, without the same leash as Abbott. He has a wider arsenal and excellent command, though I hope we can see him raise his velocity to 94 mph as he displayed in the spring. He may be climbing on my draft board if he does, especially with his home park and a good squad around him.

50. Matthew Boyd (CHC) – It was a mix of the deadened ball and an elite defense that led Boyd this year, while he didn’t do a whole lot different than what we saw with the Guardians – 93 mph four-seamers up, changeups away, and breakers that didn’t do quite as much as we wanted them to. HRs returned in the latter part of the season, though there’s little reason to expect Boyd to be on the waiver wire entering May.

51. Ryne Nelson (ARI) – Nelson’s four-seamer is elite and will continue to be elite. I’m tempted to raise him higher simply because he’s had success just with that and he has a chance of finding a true #2 pitch to turn him into a better Bryce Miller. That chance doesn’t seem high, though, as it’s rare for a pitcher who has been searching for a long time to suddenly find that pitch. Or at least it’s not a smart wager.

52. Kevin Gausman (TOR) – He’s good! He’s not! He’s good! If you blindly took Gausman and let him fly last year, all would be well. If you’re like every other manager in fantasy, though, you didn’t know what to do in the middle of July with a 4.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through his first 19 starts and it was driving you up the wall. For those who kept the faith, you were rewarded (until his last two games) with a 2.19 ERA and 0.78 WHIP across 74 frames, which is my way of telling you that 30% of his season is occluding the real man he was for the full year. But he regained his splitter! That’s the question, isn’t it? If Gausman has the splitty he found at the end of the year for six months, he’ll be fantastic. But don’t forget, he had lost that pitch for 20 months before the middle of July this year. Just a thought.

 

 

Tier 8 – I Don’t Care If These Don’t Usually Work Out

I’ve looked back and noticed that many of the arms I target once “The Cliff” hits (i.e. The SP you can rely on for your four rocks you don’t drop throughout the year that ends after Tier 7) don’t actually pan out. And that’s okay! They are also arms you drop quickly instead of ruining your season by holding on too long. Here are the shiny new toys that I see having a higher chance of panning out than the other subset of strikeout potential arms later on.

 

53. Tatsuya Imai (FA) – If he gets posted this off-season, Jeff Passan mentioned a source expecting $150M in free agency. That’s all you really need to know right now (it’s a 95+ mph heater with a large variety of weapons) and I’ll have a deeper dive on him across the off-season. Lots of questions about it now, of course.

54. Troy Melton (DET) – I see Melton and I see the face of every young arm I’ve been amped for in previous years who has fallen short. But he’s different! I want to tell you that due to a 97 mph four-seamer with near seven feet of extension and a flat attack angle (and good command!) with a legit slider, and an arsenal that could fill out with cutters, splitters, curveballs, and sinkers. That said, if he’s in the Detroit rotation (not a given even if I expect it!), he may be babied, and could be a frustration early on in the season, trapping you to hold on longer than you should. Or maybe he does work out, but you have to endure growing pains early. All this to say Melton should be great if given time in the rotation, but I’d rather go for arms who can go six innings constantly right out of the gate and have done so in the past.

55. Emmet Sheehan (LAD) – If I knew the Dodgers were planting Sheehan in the rotation for the entire 2026 season, I’d have him up 10-20 spots. Sheehan’s four-seamer is elite at the top of the zone consistently, while the slider returned a 24% SwStr in both 2023 and 2025. Yes, he needs to add a touch of polish to his changeup to help silence LHB, though he’s already displayed the ability to dismantle lineups regularly when starting without a hitch. Just give him the green light. PLEASE.

56. Connelly Early (BOS) – It’s rare to find a well-rounded rookie southpaw at 94+ mph. Imagine if Cameron had more velocity or if Cade Povich had a touch better stuff and command. The curve and change destroy RHB, the sinker and slider to LHB, and the four-seamer with great extension lands over the plate effectively. Don’t be shocked if he appears next season with a cutter, too. He’s the anchor of the future for the Red Sox, moreso than Tolle simply due to the expansive set of tools at his disposal.

57. Shane Baz (TBR) – But he was so frustrating to roster! Yeah, read what I said about the other pitchers on the Rays. Ohhhh, he’ll be in the Trop next year. Yuuuup. More consistency across his arsenal + no more of that dang slider in the way. Now that Baz has a full season under his belt for the first time, too, I’m so down to draft and see if he’s looking like a stud early. Connelly? No, Shane. But you said Early. DON’T DO THIS.

58. Trey Yesavage (TOR) – Do I like Yesavage or not? I think I do given a slider that makes success possible even when Yesavage doesn’t have his splitter on point. I worry that the heater is too hittable with its steep attack angle, mid velocity, and ride that doesn’t shock given his high release point (sub 10% SwStr rate in his three regular season starts, FWIW). I see an arm with the playoff tax attached to him who could be a menace to roster in 2026 once batters grasp the look of his heater and splitter. The one positive that keeps him elevated is the Blue Jays’ faith in him for the playoffs. He looks built to last 90 pitches consistently.

 

Tier 9 – Injured Delights

All of these pitchers have an injury tag on them and we’re in the dark until the new year about their status and skills for 2026. Expect many of these arms to be ranked higher by March.

 

59. Pablo López (MIN) – PabLó had a scare late in the season and fortunately the MRI on his elbow came back clean. Expect a proper off-season and a possible steal in drafts as many worry about the health. Then why is he down here? Because we’re still in the dark. If he were 100% good to go right now, I’d have PabLó in Tier 4 right around Imanaga. He’s not going to hurt you in-season.

60. Brandon Woodruff (MIL?) – I wonder if Woodruff sticks with Milwaukee or elects Free Agency, but regardless of his team, Woody is a bit of an enigma. His pair of sinkers and four-seamers at 93 mph did far better than I’d expect given their facets, even if I like his cutter & friends as well. My concern that he’ll regress in 2026 merged with the whole “Wait, you actually returned from that injury?!” has him as a high risk/reward play.

61. Shane McClanahan (TBR) – He had nerve surgery in August 2025 and is expected to be ready for the spring. He was expected at the start of this season, too. Yeah, I know. I’ll make sure I don’t add too much helium when he’s pitching fine in spring training + the Rays are sure to manage his workload throughout the season. That said, if all we’re worried about is health and the quality per inning should be great, then you should be favoring McShane as high as your SP #5, given you have four sturdy arms already on your staff.

62. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) – Mr. Crescendo suffered a right elbow fracture and resumed throwing around the end of September, making spring training look like a very real possibility. We may see the velocity dip down after he raised it massively following his fantastic rookie season, though the large arsenal and great command will make him a great addition to any rotation, given health.

63. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) – I underranked Eovaldi at the start of this past season and if he’s good to go entering the upcoming season, I’ll be ranking him favorably. Obviously the ratios will get worse, but he gets a whole lot of credit for finding a legit curveball to create a proper four-pitch mix, in concert with his fantastic ability to locate his arsenal.

64. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) – We know the ace potential, but when will he get the volume to let it come out? Will he be healthy next year at all? Will the quality of inning match his peers? The good news? His final surgery was bone spur removal, which should make it okay for spring training.

65. Joe Musgrove (SDP) – Musgrove went under the knife at the end of the 2024 season and I’m cautious trusting a pitcher who didn’t get a few innings at the end of the previous season (ala deGrom last year or Ragans this year). Keep in mind, Musgrove is not your 25-30% strikeout arm, either. He was a solid SP #4 Holly and the hope at this point is for him to reclaim that status, nothing more.

66. Zack Wheeler (PHI) – Wheeler had good version of TOS (yes, there is a good version, see this great article at The Athletic) that outlines a 6-8 month recovery from his surgery at the end of August. That outlines a return before June. The quality of Wheeler upon return is up for contention, though I’m inclined to believe he’ll fit right back into place. He only has until the end of the 2027 season to empty the tank.

67. Carlos Rodón (NYY) – He embraced the changeup and it turned him into a reliable arm with a little worse floor than those in Tier 2. There is a bit of concern that his fastball dipped to 94 mph from 95/96 mph, but the addition of the changeup allowed him to land low more than ever with his four-seamer, creating far better contact at the cost of whiffs. The man adapted and established a new norm.

68. Gerrit Cole (NYY) – Be careful with Gerrit. We don’t know when he’ll return – the Yankees are inclined to take it slowly with their current depth + high chances to be competitive late in the season + their investment in Gerrit for years to come – and let’s look at Strider as an example for a pitcher formerly reliant on velocity failing to return to acedom post-surgery. We have already seen Gerrit’s stuff decline and he may never be a reliable anchor again.

69. Kris Bubic (KCR) – A rotator cuff injury in late July ended his breakout campaign and you never want to see shoulder injuries. I’m a believer in his ability as an SP #3/#4 for your squads if healthy and sitting 92+ mph. The command was real with a better fastball than other southpaws with changeups.

70. Reese Olson (DET) – Olson was injured, returned, and injured again, getting shut down with a shoulder strain. The good news? There was hope for Olson to return for the postseason, which could outline a regular off-season for Olson. He doesn’t have the same ceiling as the rest of the arms here, but there’s proper Holly potential.

71. Kodai Senga (NYM) – He never became quite the guy we saw early in his career, but it doesn’t mean he can’t return to be a staple of the Mets rotation, even with the small dip in velocity. It would be a product of his cutter and friends supplementing the four-seamer and Ghost Fork™ consistently – a skill he lacked for most of 2025. But what’s his status? Technically, he’s not hurt and was just in Triple-A, but let’s be real. He wasn’t himself and something was bothering him. It feels right to put him in this tier as an “injured” arm who we’ll have clarity on during spring training.

 

Tier 10 – The Player Rater Darlings

These are all similar to Tier 7 but are a step below the arms I’d actually chase in my drafts. However, I am favoring the upside of quality volume over the upside of strikeout ability this year, leading toward Potential Hollys instad of Potential Cherry Bombs.

 

72. Tanner Bibee (CLE) – Oh jeez. It was a horrific year for Bibee and slightly salvaged by a far better September, and it’s so hard to tell what we’re going to get in 2026. Bibee was the arm I didn’t trust in 2023 and 2024 due to questionable grace with his arsenal, featuring enough control to get through starts, but lacked the fluidity to mix-and-match his wide variety. It made me skeptical, but I shrugged my shoulders in March 2025, accepted the results, and I failed all of you. Bibee’s bread-and-butter has been a cutter/slider to RHB + a changeup to LHB, while his heater has been just good enough to keep the strikes coming. Those secondaries let him down for most of the season and even if they returned for whiffs in the final month, displaying a terrible floor for the heavy majority of a season cannot be ignored. The good news? He has all the runway to succeed in 2026 and there may have been a tweak late in the year that he’ll have in his back-pocket if he struggles to find his cutter and/or changeup again.

73. Will Warren (NYY) – Warren was so fun to watch early in the season when he had his sweeper and changeup cooking (even if the ratios weren’t matching the strikeouts) and as his four-seamer improved and sinkers constantly landed armside, Warren lost the feel for his secondaries and battled his way through the final months. I want to believe it was a product of fatigue and that we’ll see a return to his high SwStr rates, which would make for a legit Top 30 SP given his situation in New York, though there is a slight chance he’s not in the rotation if Gil looks incredible and another arm appears (let alone Cole returning at some point), but let’s not think about that for now. It’s a low probability.

74. Luis Castillo (SEA) – This sure looks harsh, doesn’t it? I was impressed with Castillo’s four-seamer command in the second half, which kept him above water as his slider and changeup continued to decline. Castillo will be startable at home and a decent amount of time on the road, though the peaks will be more like stoops in 2026.

75. Seth Lugo (KCR) – That second half was rough, though it can be explained by a back injury that led to an IL stint. Maybe he doesn’t return to the same wide-arsenal command artist as before, though I’m willing to wager he’ll be productive early in the year as long as he’s healthy. I’m worried he may not be able to return a full season without noticeable fatigue in the future.

76. Merrill Kelly (FA) – Kelly isn’t fun, but he’s clearly good at what he does – throw strikes and prevent punishment. This ranking can change depending on where he signs – focus on the Win potential and the defense behind him. He hasn’t had a WHIP above 1.20 since 2021 and that should continue as long as he has decent support.

77. Zac Gallen (FA) – We saw Gallen get a bit of his mojo back near the end of the year and he’s destined to sign to a playoff-hopeful club this off-season. I may be a bit too low on Gallen given the upside of making a few tweaks and returning to top form, though there’s a floor of him hurting your team without you realizing it until it’s too late.

78. Joey Cantillo (CLE) – I really love the core of Cantillo – 95th percentile extension that allows his low velocity to excel up + a legit changeup, making him a SWATCH – though he doesn’t have the volume history of those above him to bank on 160+ IP in the Guardians rotation. It looks like he should get that chance, and that gets me excited for a sleeper in 15-teamers.

 

Tier 11 – The Frizzle Method

Now we get to the fun stuff that isn’t actually that fun as you get anxious watching many of them appear as the #4 or #5 SP after the “ole reliables” already started and have the long leash for six innings we crave from these arms. Then again, you’re going to see these names on many breakout lists and as Ms. Frizzle would say it’s time to “Take Chances! Make mistakes! Get Messy!” Don’t forget, you need to have a quick trigger finger early in the year if they are not showing the skills we need them to display.

 

79. Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET) – This feels clear cut. If SGL is in the rotation, I’m incredibly in. He has the make-up of a high-volume, hard to hit arm with strikeout potential who also possesses absurd extension and sink on his fastball + whiff potential on changeups and sliders. If he’s not, then you drop him. This ranking isn’t a statement that he’ll finished higher on the player rater than the names below him. It’s a rank that understands the game we play and what I believe is a better play to make.

80. MacKenzie Gore (WSH) – Boy was he something special at the start of the year. His new slider demolished LHB while his fastball, curve, and change made for effortless punchouts regularly. However, the feel for his curve dwindled across the season, and Gore became far less reliable. I’m making it a point to avoid HIPSTER arms as much as possible and unless Gore is on a different team or looks vastly different in the spring, I think I’m going to avoid just to remove the stress.

81. Jack Flaherty (DET?) – Flaherty did what he was good at – breakers down and just out of the zone – and had more trouble getting the results of old. Was it just a fluke? Probably not, even though the velocity did increase by September. He looks destined to be a HIPSTER and I prefer more stability. I should note, he has a player option to stay with the Tigers or head to free agency, and I’m expecting the latter. It’s his last shot for a multi-year deal, in my view, which may mean the open market.

82. Spencer Strider (ATL) – He had an elite fastball before getting elbow surgery. He had a decent fastball when he returned, losing 1-2 ticks of velocity (sometimes three!) and less rise, making him worse than a streamer. I cannot find an example of a pitcher returning from TJS or UCL revision or UCL internal brace surgery, having a worse fastball, and gaining it back over the winter. Please let me know if I’m missing an example. With this in mind, I can’t expect Strider to take steps forward to be the man of old for 2026. It’s too hard of a sell.

83. Ryan Weathers (MIA) – The velocity was up, the changeup had promise, and the slider was effective. It really felt like Weathers was ready for a great season, but injury struck twice – forearm strain and an index finger strain – preventing the southpaw from finding a rhythm. There’s certainly a chance Weathers is an exciting arm early in the season, though I simply don’t see a 150-170 IP arm who you start with confidence each time out. There will be ups and downs, while the velocity isn’t guaranteed to stick. It’s too much of a headache.

84. Payton Tolle (BOS) – I absolutely adore Tolle’s fastball and I’d wager Tolle will be ranked far higher entering next season, save for injury or massive role change. However, there’s a good chance he’s not in the Boston rotation exiting camp and he needs to find a few reliable secondary pitches to play off his four-seamer before he can take the leap to stardom. In addition, his four-seamer command needs a touch of work to land upstairs regularly and not thigh high. If he improves his spots and adds a reliable sinker and cutter, his fastball’s 16% SwStr rate could climb even higher with its absurd 99th percentile extension and 87th percentile flat attack angle. If he’s a starter out of camp, I’m drafting him in the last round and hoping there’s more than the four-seamer, even if that heater could bring production on its own.

85. Mick Abel (PHI) – Hot dang, I really like Abel long term. He has a great fastball, a reliable curveball, and potential in both his slider and changeup. Throw in above-average command for a young arm who is built to be efficient, and you have yourself a future Holly in Minnesota. It takes time to get there, though, and even if the Twins are clearly enamored after making him the main piece in the Duran deal, it’ll likely take some time for him to be locked into a rotation spot, let alone removing himself of the HIPSTER tag (see Zebby). The question isn’t if he ca(i)n, it’s if he’s Abel.

86. Jack Leiter (TEX) – The stuff is stupid good. His heater profiles out as one of the nastiest around, while the changeup and slider have flashed elite many times. I sit here and wish I could believe he could execute consistently with a gameplan throughout starts. Until then, he’s going to keep the PEAS label, even if he pitches in a lovely park. Yes, Leiter has proper Top 20 SP potential, though that upside has a lower chance than incessant frustration.

87. Zebby Matthews (MIN) – Like Leiter, you can see how it works with Zebby. He has a set of above-average offerings with frequency inside the zone, though he can’t quite find that groove. I see it twofold: First, he doesn’t have that elite pitch in the arsenal. His heater, cutter, slider, are all solid, but none are the true money pitch to ensure he gets out of a jam. Second, while his control is great, Zebby struggles to command effectively inside the zone. There isn’t a ton of pitch separation and he makes batters a bit too comfortable in the box to hack away at hittable pitches. But he walks batters too! Yes, I’m specifically talking about the pitches that do find the zone. This can be corrected, but to expect this jump in ability before the season begins is too much of a reach in my book.

88. Jonah Tong (NYM) – When you look as Yesavage vs. Tong, you can see a clear difference – Tong has more extension, while Yesavage has a solid third pitch in his slider. That makes a huge difference in consistency, even if Tong can overwhelm with his four-seamer a little more often than Yesavage. With just a two-pitch approach (yes, there is a curve, but it’s not one you’ll see every game), Tong’s volatility exceeds the point of pain for my drafts. Don’t get too much FOMO if he has a great April – I’d be shocked if his vulcan changeup (same as a splitter, really) is consistent for a full season, let alone more than two.

89. Andrew Painter (PHI) – We expected Painter by June. Then the All-Star Break. Then he was poor in Triple-A and never got the call. Now he “has a shot” to make the rotation in camp. Oh dear. I can’t tell you he’ll be fantastic the second he steps on the field, and the only way I’m drafting him is if the Phillies don’t have a clear #5 starter and Painter is performing well in the Spring. And even then, it’s not lock that he’ll perform up to snuff in his

 

Tier 12 – Just Pick A Spot Already

Sooooo I can see how all of these can be good for the year ahead, but now we’re really starting to get to the Uggghh, I guess I have to put them somewhere rankings. If you see them here and below, consider me out on them.

 

90. Zach Eflin (FA) – This is really a question of health and where he signs. Eflin has enough to be a decent Toby and possible Holly if he can stay on the field long enough to go each turn of the rotation, with double-digit Wins easily in his grasp if he joins a successful club. Yes, I expect his curveball to return to form, reducing its sub 60% strike rate with a .500 BABIP across the last season. In addition, the sweeper and curve mix (might be a classification thing!) should be here to stay.

91. Lucas Giolito (BOS) – That was an… experience. Giolito flashed new skills that excited me upon his return from TJS and after a few hiccups that questioned the faith, he sparkled for a 2.51 ERA across his final nineteen games. That said, the 1.19 WHIP and 20% strikeout rate left plenty to desire and I rarely saw Giolito master two of his three pitches on a given night – four-seamer, changeup, and slider. On one hand, if he stays with the Red Sox or heads to another team (BOS will offer the QO at $22M, and he’ll probably reject it), he’ll have a long leash for consistent flirtation with 6+ frames, while holding upside for a 23%+ strikeout rate if he can find a groove with his arsenal. On the other, Giolito had an elbow issue at the end of the season that prevented him from pitching in the ALWS (no structural UCL damage) and the chance of consistent health + living at a plateau seems unlikely. He’s decent volume who will be prone to the blowup.

92. Brayan Bello (BOS) – Bello looks like a better option than Giolito on paper with a 3.19 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across his final 23 starts – a product of finally making the adjustment to attack hitters with his arsenal – though he feels more like he’s stuck as a Toby than Giolito, carrying a sub 20% strikeout rate in those frames. He’s a better deep-league play for those searching for Wins and can take a potential 4.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

93. Casey Mize (DET) – I like Mize and I also am disappointed about Mize. He feels close to being a Holly but continues to struggle with his #3 pitch (Slider? Cutter?) and has bouts of inadequacy with his four-seamer and splitter. The team context is positive, though, and who knows, maybe this is the year he can find get over the hump of bottom-end Toby.

94. Shane Smith (CHW) – Smith was one of the bigger surprises of the year as a Rule-5 RP turned SP and nearly hit 150 frames with a respectable 3.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 23% strikeout rate. And seven Wins. Yeah, that’s not going to change much pitching for the White Sox, but I was impressed by his stamina growth across the season, enabling him to sit 96 mph not just for two innings, but his whole starts by mid-season. That said, I’m not sure he has the secondaries yet to make it worthwhile for 12-teamers. The curve replaced sliders to RHB and showed promise down the stretch, while the kick-changeup looks appealing but lacks reliability. He looks like a streamer early who you may hold onto for longer.

95. Quinn Priester (PIT) – I know, it feels wrong to be down on a guy with a 2.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 21% strikeout rate across five months and 24 starts. Sadly, I don’t buy into his sinker, cutter, slider pitch mix a whole lot, nor the sustainability of his 81% LOB rate, or the 23% putaway rates for his sinker and cutter to LHB. Or the sub 33% ICR on all three pitches against RHB. I totally get those who want to buy in (maybe he finds something new to compensate for the expected regression!), and do that if you like! I personally see a good run that won’t last for another season.

96. Cade Povich (BAL) – Now we have a trio of SWATCH arms who can be considered deeper Toby picks with the chance for more in-season. Povich is the perfect example of a SWATCH who can transform into much more with improvement in one of many areas. Velocity is always welcome, but returning to his cutter of old or nailing down the feel of his sweeper to LHB and changeup to RHB could turn him into a surprise Holly at no cost in your drafts. He’s one of those “Let’s just go with this stream… Okay fine, I’ll hold him for another… Oh wait, he’s actually solid,” kind of arms.

97. Parker Messick (CLE) – I dig Messick’s pitch separation as a SWATCH and the Guardians’ philosophy of higher pitch counts for their starters. I do question if there’s enough juice if the league starts to figure out how to deal with the rise of SWATCH pitchers, though.

98. Ian Seymour (TBR) – Another SWATCH who will benefit from the return to Tropicana, but doesn’t have the same command as Messick. Take note of the Rays’ signings this winter, too. Seymour is the #5 as of now, but that could be eradicated quickly if a discount Toby appears. For the most part, I don’t see a huge ceiling, though a quiet Toby could be a welcome surprise mid-season.

 

Tier 13 – They Drive You Mad And Yet…

These are the HIPSTER types who I know will each have at least one analyst claim as their darling SP pick for the year. They all have a case as to why they will be undervalued in drafts and yet, they’ll most likely be a possible waiver wire add early in the season.

 

99. Joey Wentz (ATL) – I kinda love Wentz, but I also recognize that he shouldn’t be treated like that guy. Atlanta may still have some holes in their rotation entering next season and I adore Wentz embracing the SWATCH life by adding the slowball at the end of the season. His extension came down a touch over the course of the season, though, and I’m hoping we see Wentz in the spring act like his prime self, standing out among the likes of Sale, Schwellenbach, and friends. Don’t overlook him.

100. Cristian Javier (HOU) – The stuff is there for Javier to be a legit starter, but the command has always been a question, even before TJS. We saw inconsistency when he returned in the second half and I’m not as inclined to chase the following season post-TJS when I’m not seeing electric skills during their limited return stint. I can see Javier being a HIPSTER quickly with a mix of productive and ragged outings, and I’m trying to avoid those situations as much as possible.

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES. For Real.

 

Labels Legend

Aces Gonna Ace

Ace Potential

Holly

Toby

Cherry Bomb

Hipster

Vargas Rule

Frizzle

Streaming Option

QS Bonus

Wins Bonus

Strikeouts Bonus

Ratios Bonus

Rotation Spot Bonus

Team Context Effect

Stash Option

Injury Risk

Playing Time Question

 

And now for the other 100 starting pitchers I considered that should be noted for 2026. I really debated if I wanted to write blurbs for all of these pitchers and eventually caved in to take the extra time to write something about everyone. Have fun.

 

Tier 13 – They Drive You Mad And Yet…

Continued

These are the HIPSTER types who I know will each have at least one analyst claim as their darling SP pick for the year. They all have a case as to why they will be undervalued in drafts and yet, they’ll most likely be a possible waiver wire add early in the season.

101. Landen Roupp (SFG) – A deep bone bruise ended his season after taking an arrow a comebacker to the knee, but let’s not forget his legit curveball that destroyed RHB with a sinker that comes with a ton of movement… and returned all the hits. Yes, the BABIP should have been elevated given his lack of support and locations of his sinker, though it’s not hard to imagine Roupp improving upon a .427 BABIP against RHB. It’s a great park to pitch in, and the changeup can be better, plus I’m curious if he can take a step forward if he gets a clean bill of health.

102. Luis Gil (NYY) – We didn’t see Gil have the command needed to become a promising strikeout arm after enduring injury for most of 2025, nor did we see an electric four-seamer that demanded success. With Carlos Rodón expected to miss the start of the season, Gil’s spot in the rotation looks secure out of camp, though there is a chance a signing + a surprise in camp changes Gil’s security, too. In short, even if he gets the job, I’m concerned we’ll see an inefficient WHIP killer without the strikeouts to justify a roster spot.

103. Reid Detmers (LAA) – Detmers will be given a chance to earn a rotation spot in the spring and while I think he’ll earn it, it could be a poor spring and it’s back to the pen for you. They really should just trade him BUT I DIGRESS. Detmers’ four-seamer was exceptional as a reliever, jumping all the way to an 19% SwStr rate against LHB with a 99th percentile PLV, rooted in exceptional command upstairs with its 95/96 mph velocity. Yes, that’s about two ticks harder than what we saw as a starter, with an extra inch of vert, too. The slider was also elite with 20%+ SwStr rates against both LHB and RHB with a high strike rate, making a two-pitch tandem perfect for a reliever. However, is that enough as a starter? The curve is a show-me pitch for called strikes to RHB and the changeup was abandonded for the relief role. In addition, Detmers’ feel for the slider has notoriously wavered across his time as a starter (even if it had far more depth this year than ever. That will reduce with the expected velo drop of transitioning from RP to SP.) and I’d be cautious believing he can carry it over into the rotation. All of that said, give it a shot. Maybe the tweaks are real, maybe he can hold the velocity more than expected ala Bubic, and hopefully the changeup feel returns when he needs it more often.

104. Roki Sasaki (LAD) – So, uh, are you starting or closing? Obviously things are looking better in relief and let’s be real, the Dodgers need that shutdown guy these days, but then again, if he’s back to upper 90s with a fantastic forkball, Los Angeles may try to redeem some of the former magic of Sasaki, the starter. Welcome to the tier of We’ll know more in a few months, but just look at the upside!

105. Ryan Bergert (KCR) – He was traded to the Royals at the deadline and he added a sweeper with his four-seamer + slider mix that helped him become a late season streamer. It wasn’t magical, but shockingly productive, which has me neglecting to reach for a draft pick unless he improves in some way. Hopefully it’s from velocity, which would allow his well-spotted four-seamer to soar with its good vert at ~93 mph. In addition, as the #5 before the FA market opens, Bergert has no promises of being the #5 out of camp.

106. Hurston Waldrep (ATL) – Please don’t DM me about his record-setting ERA to start his career. That’s Baseball, Suzyn. Waldrep is built on his splitter that isn’t as consistent as Yesavage’s, nor does he have a heater close to as good a Tong’s. Maybe the cutter takes a step forward and we see cutter/splitter as the main focus, but even that doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. The breakers also need to get better and the whole thing screams “He’ll throw strikes and give himself a chance with rare moments of strikeout love via the splitter, but mostly be a WHIP killer.” It’s HIPSTER in a bottle and I need to see something different.

107. Yu Darvish (SDP) – Is he retiring? Is he not? Darvish never got comfortable during the season and if he’s locked in entering the season, I’d be down to draft him and see where it goes. I simply don’t believe he’s as poor as he was in 2025 given his arsenal depth and velocity. Unfortunately, it’s the middle of October and we still are in the dark about his future. If he’s confirmed in the rotation with no signs of degradation in the spring, you bet I’m taking a chance on Darvish and seeing how it goes.

108. Tyler Mahle (FA) – I kinda like Mahle…? I wonder if his 92 mph velocity climbs a little with a healthy off-season, while the splitter and cutter were effective strike pitches and served their roles well. The massive drop in strikeout rate from 25/27% in the past to just 17% in 2025 is due to a horrific 15% putaway rate on his fastball that could climb back north of 20% if he can get a little flatter in his delivery. He’s really not as far away from his old self than it looks and who knows, maybe we see his low-80s breaking ball get more love, too? Follow where he signs and if he has a clear role in April.

109. José Soriano (LAA) – There’s so much promise in his hard sinker + CSW-darling curveball + promising slider, but the volatility. Oh my, the volatility. Will he throw enough strikes? Will the sinkers find gloves? Can he get a feel for his slider on a given night? If Soriano were on a different club, I may be more inclined to believe he’ll shed his HIPSTER label (I have zero faith in the Angels staff to fix in-season issues across their SP, just look at Detmers above and Kikuchi below). Alas, he’s sporting a halo once again and I see another headache of a season incoming.

110. Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) – Speaking of Los Angeles Angels and a HIPSTER, why, it’s Kikuchi! The man who was throwing the incorrect slider grip for the first two months of the season. Yeah. No one caught that. That isn’t to say that the slider was demonstrably better across the final four months, though. Its 18%+ SwStr rates of old were just 13-14% in that stretch, and he was constantly doing something new in an effort to “figure it out.” I can’t sit here and tell you what Kikuchi should do and what would be great to see in the spring, but at the very least, hopefully he’s sitting 95/96 mph (not 94/95) with clear pitch separation, more slider whiffs, and a curveball + changeup that actually help. It’s a lot to ask and even if he actually ticks all the boxes in March, his routine volatility suggests it could be gone by may.

111. Cade Cavalli (WSH) – He throws hard, though his four-seamer is more hittable than you’d think. The real allure is his tight 85-89 mph curveball that can rack up the strikeouts if he has it working on a given night. I’m still looking for something more in Cavalli’s toolkit to jump on board (especially with the Nationals’ reputation for lackluster SP as of late), but the velocity and power breaker present obvious upside.

112. Max Scherzer (FA) – Mad Max has proven he still has a bit left in the tank, though what team will give him that chance? How successful will he be at keeping himself on the field? Will we see another step backward in ability when he does pitch?

113. Bailey Ober (MIN) – Hey Ober, you really need to get your velocity back up to snuff. Hovering 90 mph at best creates a minuscule margin for error, especially with an oft-traitorous #3 pitch. It’s so difficult to believe he can provide routine Bailey Special performances following the disaster we just witnessed.

114. John Means (CLE?) – He’s an OG SWATCH and we’ve been waiting for him to get regular starts since, uh, 2021. He’s pitched ten starts in four years (including zero in 2025), and now the Guardians have the choice to hold onto him in 2026 for $6M. Let’s say he stays and enters a six-man rotation. Means will hopefully have 91/92 mph velocity with his 19+ inches of vert and a proper changeup, making him an echo of Matthew Boyd, save for a worse breaker to LHB but better ride on his fastball. In addition, the Guardians likely won’t cap Means a whole lot given the one-year deal, allowing for 90+ pitches regularly once he has a few games to kick off the year. Or he could be a shell of his former self and not even make the team out of camp.

 

Tier 14 – This Is The Year! I Swear!

This is a weird tier of players. You may see the majority of them ranked below half of Tier 17 by the time April arrives, but I wanted to highlight under-the-radar arms who show potential of being 12-teamer relevant in a flash. You also may see some pitchers you expected inside the Top 100 and if that’s the case, you can kindly let me know why on our PL+ Discord or my weekday team breakdown streams on Playback.tv.

 

115. Chad Patrick (MIL) – I really love his cutter and I think Patrick does too. If the Brewers are truly trading Peralta this off-season, then you may see Patrick seize a rotation spot and force him to expand his arsenal from 2/3 pitches into a proper approach. Given the success of Milwaukee arms at home (higher strikeouts for pitchers at American Family Park!), Patrick may be worth the gamble late for 5+ innings of 20-25% strikeouts and serviceable ratios.

116. Jacob Latz (TEX) – Latz is the perfect example of a pitcher who could be a popular name in the spring if everything goes right. That would include securing a rotation spot and adding a hint of extra velocity to go with his lively fastball upstairs + whiffable changeup down. Wait, he’s a SWATCH? I guess he is, but with a tinge of electricity and less reliability. The slider could also take a step further from its clear #3 role to RHB and a good-but-not-great weapon to LHB.

117. Kyle Harrison (BOS) – We didn’t get much of a look at Harrison in a Boston uniform, and we were hoping to get a look at a new cutter and other improvements since his time in San Francisco. We got three appearances, two starts, and one meh expression on my face. That’s not to say a full workout with the team this off-season can’t change things for the future for Harrison, I’m simply not going to wishcast that it’s going to happen.

118. Brandon Sproat (NYM) – He’s a sinker/sweeper guy who doesn’t have an answer for LHB yet. Maybe it’s the curve and/or changeup over time, but until then, I’m out, especially with his status inside the Mets rotation heavily in question.

119. Kumar Rocker (TEX) – What are we going to see from Rocker? I’m infatuated with his cutter that was all kinds of deadly in the middle of the season, and after a year of experimenting with approaches, here’s to Kumar showcasing a straight-forward cutter-first approach, with heaters and breakers adding support. It can work and I hope he’s in the rotation when camp ends – Rocker and Latz are the clear #4/5 right now, but we’ll likely see a Free Agent signing (or two?) to muddy the waters, let alone Winston Santos or another prospect making their case.

120. Johan Oviedo (PIT) – Oviedo has elite extension and a 90th percentile flat attack angle with his 95/96 mph four-seamer, in addition to a pair of strike-heavy breaking balls, though he hasn’t been able to return whiffs on his slider and curve, nor can he consistently elevate his fastball to create proper pitch separation. However, if he were to take his arsenal and mold it into its best form, Oviedo could be a surprise hit of the season with legit 25%+ strikeout upside. It’s a longshot given the 55% strike rate on his four-seamer last season. Yes, that was the worst among all starting pitchers.

121. Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) – He throws hard and features a fantastic low-90s slider, so why do I rank him so low? Because his 97 mph heater returned a sub 10% SwStr rate (poor shape n all) and there’s not much else outside of the slide piece. He was also babied by the Pirates and among their cluster of blossoming arms – Skenes, Chandler, Oviedo, Burrows, Keller, Harrington, Barco, etc. – it’s no lock that Ashcraft steals a rotation spot and gets free reign for the year. In fact, I see a reliever moreso than a starter here. This could change quickly, though, and I don’t mind investing in Ashcraft’s chance of looking different in the spring, let it be a different release point, tweaking his arsenal, or adding a pitch.

122. Nestor Cortes (FA) – Another lost season for Cortes and now we wait to see where he signs this off-season. There is legit talent as fastball/cutter arm, especially with the lean toward developing a changeup as of late (a new SWATCH!). If he signs with a team that lets him start regularly (say, the Cardinals?), he could turn into a solid Toby with Holly potential if he can get back to 23%+ strikeouts.

123. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) – Alright, how real was the end of his season? Is he really a splitter guy we can expect to churn a strikeout per inning? With a high heater and good slider? I can’t quite get behind that idea, but it’s possible he shows up to camp and forces the Twins to place him in the rotation as he sits 94/95 mph with those secondaries. My gut says he’ll continue being a dude I just can’t trust.

124. Yoendrys Gómez (CHW) – Gómez has some positives on paper. Solid extension with above-average movement on two breakers, and it’s possible he can squeeze everything out of the wide mix to become a regular producer with more strikeouts than your average waiver-wire arm. The White Sox serve him few favors, though, and I don’t see the appeal of leaning into Yoendrys over other options.

125. Sean Burke (CHW) – Mark two straight Septembers of Burke raising eyebrows, though we should take a lesson from April 2025: There’s no promise that Burke will look the same out of spring. If he can sport whiffable secondaries consistently to pair with a 95 mph heater upstairs, then we’re talking. And like Yoendrys, Burke will take a dent in the wins department as a member of the White Sox.

126. Luis Morales (ATH) – Morales was the hot ticket in August when focused fantasy managers didn’t abandon their leagues and got value from an unknown streamer. The dude throws hard at 97+ mph, but struggles to earn whiffs (7% SwStr rate?!) while the rest of the arsenal failed to eclipse a 60% strike rate. That creates obvious room for growth, but pessimistically, pitching in Sacramento for half his starts will make it difficult to roster Morales for an extended period.

127. Ben Casparius (LAD) – We have a sub-tier here with pitchers who don’t have a clear rotation spot but have some intrigue if they do (and show improvement early). Casparius is my favorite and boy do I want the kid to start. He throws hard and has two secondaries he can throw for strikes + has a legit slider for whiffs. The problem? It’s the Dodgers. He could be another example of an arm flung into uncertainty between opening, long relief, firearm, the minors, etc. I hope he gets traded in a package in the off-season like Ryan Pepiot, which would get me amped as a Frizzle to consider early in the season. Until then, he’s just a fun arm who could be a reliable strikeout arm if given enough runway in the rotation.

128. Grant Taylor (CHW) – This dude is hilariously good… when he finds strikes. He’s been injured often and was eased into the majors as a reliever in 2025, though there’s a chance he transitions into an SP (See: Sale, Crochet) and his ceiling is too fantastic to ignore. If he’s confirmed as a starter and not walking the farm in the spring, you bet I’ll be taking a chance on him.

129. David Festa (MIN) – Festa hasn’t had enough runway in the rotation to fine tune his command at the major league level and a mild version of TOS ended his 2025 campaign early. Don’t worry, he didn’t require surgery and received a BOTOX injection instead, making him expected for spring training 2026. That said, there’s a bit of competition for him to seize a rotation spot, too (SWR, Abel, Zebby, Ryan, PabLó, Ober, etc.), and I’d pass until he forces our hand.

130. Trevor McDonald (SFG) – I gotta say, I sure didn’t know about McDonald until the final two weeks of the season, and now I’m wondering if he’s going to crack the Giants’ rotation before Opening Day. He took advantage of a pair of good matchups and appropriately leaned heavily on his stellar “curveball”, but really, he’s a sinker/sweeper arm with a sweeper that has more depth than usual at 85/86 mph. It’s such a good breaker + the horizontal ride is above-average on the sinker + maybe he learns a changeup or cutter to put it all together to avoid massive punishment against LHB.

131. Hayden Birdsong (SFG) – You’ve seen the fun of Birdsong at times. His control is awfully erratic and despite the moments where one (or two if we’re lucky!) of his slider, changeup, or curve are cooking, it’s just not sustainable. As of now. The Giants could easily move to other options for their starting rotation to kick off the 2025 season, which makes it even harder for us to expect improvement with his command without proper runway to get his footing. It’s all just a massive headache.

132. Ben Brown (CHC) – He’s a two-pitch arm who has a deadly curveball and a four-seamer that gets hit too much to avoid breaking the Huascar Rule. I’m anticipating the Cubs to leave him out of the rotation (he profiles as a reliever IMO), and even if he does get a spot, I’ll still avoid him unless there is a new pitch we love in the mix.

133. Tobias Myers (MIL) – I’m expecting the Brewers to give Myers a chance in the rotation again this spring and we’ll see how it goes. It’s a four-seamer with good under-the-hood marks + a splitter + cutter + blegh slider. I can see a world where he features enough variety and precision to keep his ERA down, but a breakout is only possible if he takes a significant step forward somewhere. Maybe it’s the splitter or cutter becoming more legit pitches or a breaking ball turning into a reliable whiff pitch. Or why not, how about some velocity?

134. Robert Gasser (MIL) – If the Brewers are in fact dealing Peralta this off-season, Gasser could slide into a rotation spot and be the latest SWATCH in town. He hasn’t nailed down the slowball yet, nor has he displayed a ton of upside in his very limited time in the bigs thus far (under 40 IP in two seasons due to elbow surgery), but all of this can change quickly. I wonder what we’ll see in the spring.

135. Nate Pearson (HOU) – I want to be very clear: The majority of names listed at the bottom of this tier are sure to be far lower than many in Tier 18 by March. The thing is, guys like Pearson could have a starting gig and carry a bit more upside instead of the back-up options of wanna-be Toby types. Why not take the chance? As for Pearson, the Astros signed him with the intent of starting in the rotation and who knows, maybe this is the moment he actually becomes the SP we dreamed of in Toronto?

 

Tier 15 – Names You’ll Forget You Read

These are some other prospects who you could see in 2025, but didn’t grab me as arms to stash in 12-teamer drafts during my quick assessment. I’m so ready to be wrong about them and be aware of these names as once they get the call, they should be picked up as a spec-add at the very least.

MAJOR NOTE FOR THIS TIER: These are prospects listed as “A DUDE” on the 40-man or could be on the 40-man soon by the Dynasty Team here at Pitcher List + a few I’ve added myself given my review of them last year. I apologize that I’m not giving you a deeper dive on them here – it’s part of my off-season process and I’ll be publishing my own personal Top 100 SP Prospects for 2025 Redraft Leagues in February. For now, at least you have interesting names to explore,

 

Prospects To Consider For 2026, Sorted By Team (Alphabetically). THESE ARE NOT IN RANKING ORDER:

136. Gage Jump (ATH)

137. Owen Murphy (ATL)

138. Luis Perales (BOS)

139. Jaxon Wiggins (CHC)

140. Noah Schultz (CHW)

141. Khal Stephen (CLE)

142. Chase Petty (CIN)

143. Miguel Ullola (HOU)

144. Jackson Ferris (LAD)

145. Logan Henderson (MIL)

146. Kendry Rojas (MIN)

147. Robby Snelling (MIA)

148. Thomas White (MIA)

149. Jack Wenninger (NYM)

150. Moisés Chace (PHI)

151. Jurrangelo Cijntje (SEA)

152. Quinn Mathews (STL)

153. Tink Hence (STL)

154. Winston Santos (TEX)

155. Brody Hopkins (TBR)

156. Ty Johnson (TBR) 

157. Santiago Suarez (TBR)

158. Jarlin Susana (WSH)

 

Tier 16 – Hurt But Not Completely Out

These are injured players who have a shot of pitching again in 2025 but we have no idea when and if they’ll be any good when they do. I put those who could be pitching in spring first, then IL stashes for the season in the second half, starting with Wheeler… and put River last.

 

159. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) – He’s not expected to have surgery, but we had a lost season from The Pasta Pirate with a thumb injury followed by elbow inflammation. He’s low in this tier, but keep an eye on him for the spring. If he’s healthy, he could be part of the Houston rotation in April and hint at his exciting strikeout ability we saw in late 2024.

160. Jacob Lopez (TBR) – He had an elbow flexor injury in August and it’s unclear if he’ll be good for spring. If he’s healthy, there may be something here.

161. Josiah Gray (WSH) – He’s already made a rehab start in September – that’s good! – suggesting he could be in the starting rotation next year for the Nationals. Unfortunately, he wasn’t a guy to target before the injury, and this is a massive wait-and-see.

162. Reynaldo López (ATL) – Shoulder surgery in early April = Who knows.

163. Braxton Garrett (MIA) – He had UCL revision surgery in December 2024, which could mean he’s actually good to go in the spring…? But do you really want to draft Garrett? I don’t.

164. Max Meyer (MIA) – Hip surgery in June. That could outline a healthy spring, though it’s hard to be convinced he’ll have the same electricity.

165. Hunter Dobbins (BOS) – He’s expected to have a completely normal off-season after his knee injury, but there’s no spot for him in the Red Sox rotation + we still need to see that he’s actually healthy and back to form. I wasn’t hyped for Dobbins when healthy, either, and I’d avoid until we get promise in-season.

166. Kutter Crawford (BOS) – Wrist surgery took him out for the year after other problems, too. When will you be back? Will you be okay?

167. Drey Jameson (ARI) – You forgot about… Jameson. He’s missed a lot of time and even had a setback with elbow pain during his rehab this year, but he’s showcased his signature high velocity and could be pitching in the AFL. It could mean he gets a starting gig for the Diamondbacks early in the year. Not to say he’ll be fantastic if he does, but hey, velocity is velocity. Just a thought.

168. Justin Steele (CHC) – It wasn’t proper TJS, but it was UCL surgery and Steele won’t be back until the middle or the season or so. I dunno, we’ll get more information later.

169. Corbin Burnes (ARI) – He underwent TJS in June 2025, which could make for a Bradish/Bieber-esque return in August. Someone to note, but it’s not a stash I’m going for in drafts.

170. Grant Holmes (ATL) – He had a partially torn UCL and had surgery in late July. I have no idea when he returns. He was a productive but frustrating arm to roster in 2025, which doesn’t make for a great stash.

171. Christian Scott (NYM) – He underwent TJS in early September 2024, so we could see him next year… if the Mets don’t stash him in Triple-A for a while first.

172. Clarke Schmidt (NYY) – Schmidt got the internal brace in mid July this year, which could mean he misses all of 2026 or appears after the All-Star Break.

173. Jackson Jobe (DET) – TJS in June this year. You shouldn’t expect him back til 2027.

174. DJ Herz (WSH) – TJS in April this year, which outlines mid-season or so. And who knows if it’s any good?

175. Richard Fitts (BOS) – TJS here late in the season and I still feel terrible for Fitts.

176.  Patrick Sandoval (BOS) – Okay, so he signed a two-year deal with the Red Sox before 2025 while recovering from TJS. He should be around next season and Boston is sure to give him a chance to slot into the rotation. THAT SAID, The Irish Panda was highly suspect prior to injury and there is no guarantee Sandoval will be a better option than Early or Tolle or any of the other young arms inside this tier at Boston’s disposal.

177.  Tanner Houck (BOS) – Yes, I guess he exists too, but he got TJS in August this year. I’d be floored if he appeared before 2027. So why did you rank him? TO PROVE A POINT. What point? That the Red Sox have so many injured starters. Okay.

178. River Ryan (LAD) – He underwent TJS in 2024 briefly after his callup and I’m so curious what a healthy Ryan looks like.

 

Tier 17 – THIS GUY IS TOO LOW!

Please don’t be upset. I want you to realize that once the final March update comes out, the prospects will be sorted out and the injured arms removed, removing 40-50 names ahead of this tier from the get-go. Then you throw in rotations getting settled and voila! They are flirting with the Top 100. As of right now, though, I don’t see a reason to target any of these arms over the volume options I ranked earlier. I’m absolutely sure some of these will be waiver-wire darlings, though.

 

179. Clay Holmes (NYM) – This looks really low for all of these pitchers. Trust me, I know, I PUT THEM HERE. But then you realize there are about 50 pitchers making up prospects and injured arms. So, you’re going to delete the angry comment you were about to leave, right? RIGHT?! As for The Adobe, he never displayed the ability to take the next step across his arsenal. It felt like he was keeping his head above water for as long as possible and I simply don’t have faith he can give you a beneficial WHIP across the season.

180. David Peterson (NYM) – Same with Peterson. There is more potential in a given night with Peterson if he’s able to limit walks, while Holmes is a touch more consistent of throwing strikes.

181. Sean Manaea (NYM) – Oh why not, let’s just throw all the Mets over here. Manaea tried to make it work with just four-seamer and sweeper and it simply didn’t this year.

182. Matthew Liberatore (STL) – Liberatore was a solid Toby for the first half, before having bouts of bad command and velocity in the final months. I don’t believe you need to spring for him now, but he certainly has the chance like Povich and friends to be an upside Toby play with the Cardinals’ great defense. Keep an eye on him.

183. Slade Cecconi (CLE) – Yes, he was great despite my constant “This cannot be real” blathering. And guess what? You’re going to get a whole lot more of that drivel this winter. His heaters are due for huge regression.

184. Jameson Taillon (CHC) – The man throws strikes and with the Cubs elite gloves behind him, he has no fear. It’s hard to expect his ratios improving from here, sadly, so we’ll call him an early streamer and hope he sticks around for a while.

185. Tyler Wells (BAL) – This may be a sleeper play for deeper leagues if Wells is starting regularly. He’s a strike thrower without the greatest stuff, and he’ll find the sixth more times than not.

186. Brady Singer (CIN) – Singer was better than expected earlier in the year before settling in as the same guy he’s always been. Even if he’s split the slider into a sweeper as well, and sprinkles in more cutters and four-seamers than before. GABP still hurts, too.

187. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) – It was a rickety boat through stormy waters. Pfaadt’s approach changed constantly and even with the chance of him having his best command early in the year, I wouldn’t chase it.

188. Justin Verlander (FA) – Is he coming back for yet another year? Watch him return to Houston for one more ride. It’s hard to believe he’ll carry 94/95 mph heaters with great breakers out of the gate, and if he’s not in such a good home park like Oracle, then the odds are even greater against this generation’s Nolan Ryan.

189. Mitch Keller (PIT) – Y’all know how I feel about Keller. Maybe he gets traded to another team and his sweeper is actually a more reliable pitch for a full year, but I just don’t see how you can feel confident starting him each time out, even if he’s on a new club.

190. Logan Allen (CLE) – He’s a SWATCH (Southpaw With A Tight Changeup. Get used to this one) who can have success when the command is on point, but doesn’t inspire confidence throughout the season. He feels like the backup plan if the Guardians don’t have anything else to invest in.

191. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) – He’s a southpaw with a changeup and will routinely be a streamer throughout the season. Sure isn’t a guy to leave your drafts with, though.

192. Taj Bradley (MIN) – Maybe this is the year he actually finds consistency. He’ll be a desperate stream all year given the massive spikes of value for a start before he returns to the valley of sorrow.

193. Luis Severino (ATH) – He’s already not worth your time in half of his starts (Sacré Verde n all), let alone carrying questionable production on the road. Maybe the cutter takes center stage next year?

194. J.T. Ginn (ATH) – I saw moments when Ginn had legit command to all four corners with sinkers, cutters, sliders, and changeups, and if that appears with a sinker that can sit 94+ with elite drop, then I’ll be very interested in 15-teamers. I’m still not sure that’s enough for 12-teamers in the majority of matchups.

195. Michael Wacha (KCR) – He’s as 15-team Toby as it gets. Good for a stream here and there, especially at home. That changeup is still legit.

196. Dustin May (FA) – I can’t help but wonder where he signs. Give May a locked rotation spot on a team that is known to tinker + will let him go as long as he can, and suddenly May might have a resurgence of a season. One of the higher “clear upside” plays down here if everything lines up, though I have my serious doubts.

197. Stephen Kolek (KCR) – Kolek was a standard Vargas Rule at the end of the year. That was cool, sadly his stuff doesn’t speak to sustained success. At least it’s a good home park when he gets another shot in the rotation. Wait, he’s not a lock out of camp? Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Cameron + one of Bergert, Kolek, and anyone else they potentially sign. Oh. That’s not good. No, it’s not.

198. Jason Alexander (HOU) – The sinker and changeup can work as a Neckbeard approach, though he seems like a backup plan, not the preferred option for the Astros out of camp. And even if he does find a rotation spot, it’s possible they keep him on a short leash once again given his lack of arsenal depth that hurts his Third-Time-Through penalty.

199. Janson Junk (MIA) – His four-seamer has life upstairs and he can go Dancing With The Disco at times, and he should start regularly for Miami if they deal one or both of Sandy + ECab. This seems way more trouble than it’s worth, though, with a poor team context and a poor ratio floor.

200. Nick Martinez (FA) – Where does he sign? Wherever it is, I hope it’s as a locked SP, for his sake. He initially signed with the Reds with a promise to start, but then they added another starter or two and pushed him to the pen, granting him starts only when injuries allowed it. His wide arsenal does him favors, especially when the cutter and changeup are on point, and if he heads to a pitcher-friendly park, there’s proper 15-teamer upside here. I can’t bank on K-Mart actually getting that chance, though.

201. Davis Martin (CHW) – The cutter and changeup have potential, I just don’t like the fastball, nor his team context. Even when he does well, it’s so boring.

202. Chris Bassitt (FA) – Bassitt’s value has come from volume, which may be harder to find if he doesn’t sign with a winning squad. Keep in mind, since 19 and 21 QS in 2022/2023, he’s returned just 23 combined in two full seasons, failing to eclipse 12 Wins in 31+ starts per season along the way.

203. Jeffrey Springs (ATH) – It was difficult to determine when Sunshine and Rainbows would appear for Springs and Sacré Verde makes his forecast cloudy once again.

204. Zack Littell (FA) – He’s splitter + slider over the plate and I can understand how it worked shockingly well. He’s a Free Agent and if a team signs him with intent to start regularly (hopefully at a good park!), then fine. You can take the chance.

205. Adrian Houser (FA) – I had a fun time watching Houser sit 95 mph with seven feet of extension in the spring, then get his shot with the White Sox and become a QS darling. I wonder if he can keep the same ability in 2026, which we should see quickly in the spring after inevitably signing with a team this winter – not necessarily as a rotation piece, but as a Non-Roster Invitee at the very least.

206. Chris Paddack (FA) – Will a team pick him up and figure out his third pitch for him? Wouldn’t that be awesome.

207. Walker Buehler (FA) – Sure, his stint with the Phillies was a little better, but he’s still too far away for me to believe he’ll be productive for whatever team needs him next year.

208. Foster Griffin (FA) – Griffin quickly got TJS after his MLB debut in 2020, then had a moment as a reliever in 2022 before heading to the NPB. He’s now returning after posting a 2.57 ERA with a 20% K-BB rate across 300+ frames (sweet!) and he could be a surprise volume arm if put into a good situation. He’s 90/91 mph with a legit slider to destroy LHB (four-seamer not great to LHB, though), with cutters and changeups to RHB. Here’s more info on him. Think better than Kyle Hart.

209. José Berríos (TOR) – It may time for us to retire The Great Undulator after two of his last three seasons have sported an ERA above 4.00 and a 1.25+ WHIP. It’s possible he improves in 2026, but not that much.

210. Michael McGreevy (STL) – Despite my adoration for what McGreevy does, he’s just a streaming option against mediocre squads.

211. Caden Dana (LAA) – Dana had some intrigue in 2024 and experienced most of 2025 in the trainers’ room. If he seizes a rotation spot, he could blossom if the fastball can continue to overperform.

212. Jose Quintana (MIL?) – We’ve all seen the ebb and flow of Quintana in-season. If the Brewers don’t hold onto him, he’ll surely find a spot somewhere to flirt with six innings regularly.

213. Dean Kremer (BAL) – I called him Dean Werewolf all year and to see a 4.19 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a 20% strikeout rate at the end of the day sounds right. Remember, he had  some fantastic outings, and clearly a whole lot of disappointment to end with such mundane marks.

214. Michael Soroka (FA) – Soroka had a shoulder strain, ending his season early. He’s the perfect volume arm for teams to snag when injuries appear, and Soroka’s fastball + breaker mix opens the door for streaming opportunities.

215. Colin Rea (MIL) – Rea stepped up for the Cubs when they needed innings once Steele went down. Props to him for that, y’all know he’s just an occasional streamer if given regular opportunities again.

216. Javier Assad (CHC) – I don’t believe the Cubs will put themselves in a position to have Assad in the rotation in April, and even when he does start, it really shouldn’t work. Oh that Cubs defense…

 

Tier 18 – Stick To The Streams You’re Used To

These pitchers shouldn’t be drafted and only reserved as potential streaming options if they are proving to be in a rhythm during the year… when they get a rotation spot. Some may surprise us and look like a different arm, too. Wouldn’t that be cool?

 

217. Justin Wrobleski (LAD) – He threw harder this season when we saw him start, but he’s too far back in the queue to expect him to start early in the year. And yes, these rankings favor those who are starting in the rotation. You should not be stashing Wrobo. But if he starts? It could work. That higher velocity is cool and so is the slider.

218. Bryce Elder (ATL) – That was one ridiculous run to end the season eh? I’d be shocked if Elder made the Opening Day rotation next year and if he does, you should have zero expectations that he replicates September’s bliss. But there’s a chance…

219. Mike Burrows (PIT) – Burrows was limited heavily by the Pirates this year and while he had brief moments of success, the arsenal doesn’t speak to sleeper arm.

220. Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) – There’s a hard breaking ball in here that is fun to watch, but his command is not where it needs to be to force the Pirates to hand him a rotation spot.

221. Bobby Miller (LAD) – ONE. DAY. I joke with Eno about his love for him entering 2024, but I’m pretty sure I was right there with him if not more so. I wonder if he’ll get dealt in the off-season and figure himself out in a new home.

222. Carson Seymour (SFG) – He has good velocity, but I’m not seeing a whole lot else to demand a rotation spot early, let alone take advantage of the opportunity.

223. Carson Whisenhunt (SFG) – He has worse stuff than the other Carson, but at least he’s a southpaw with a changeup, right? You know, Whisenhunt was one of the rare ones who didn’t succeed with the approach this year.

224. AJ Blubaugh (HOU) – I know he’s done well with his heater and slider in small appearances, but he’s a RHP without a ton of depth to the arsenal. I don’t expect the Astros to put him in the rotation.

225. Colton Gordon (HOU) – He endured injuries and came back to be kinda meh. Maybe he gets the command to force a rotation spot…?

226. Emerson Hancock (SEA) – The Mariners just finished their playoff push with the massive benefit of avoiding the injury bug (save for Woo, but he’s apparently back!), and mostly rotating through their starters, granting more chances than Hancock should have. Why are you trying to say? I can’t believe they are where they are with Hancock as their sixth arm okay?! I’m expecting them to add some depth in the off-season, though Hancock is sure to get some starts along the journey of 2026. He’ll need to do more with his breakers and changeup to be a solid Toby, h*ck, just jamming his sinker inside more often would help. What about Logan Evans? He hit the IL in August with an elbow injury. If he’s healthy, the Mariners should favor him over Hancock, but we’ll see.

227. Joe Boyle (TBR) – We all were tempted at one point or another to try out the Boyle experiment in Tampa Bay. While there were a few moments on Cloud Nine, he was usually locked to his floor instead, walking too many and still struggling to find strikes like he used to. One day…

228. Adam Mazur (MIA) – Maybe the Marlins give him some time in the rotation and he can hold 96+ mph with good locations? Naaaaah.

 

Tier 19 – Why Am I Even Ranking Them

You get a holiday bonus for reading so far! But like a “Subscription to Jelly of the Month club” bonus, not a “I can now build a swimming pool” bonus. Hey, blame Colorado’s ownership, not me.

 

229. Kyle Freeland (COL) – You know, Freeland often has a start or two away from Coors to kick off the season that might actually be decent. Watch, he’ll be the opening day starter and feast in Miami. You know, I may put Freeland down as the sneakiest start for deep leagues out of the gate. Then why is he down here? Because it’s the Rockies. It’s mandatory.

230.  McCade Brown (COL) – We got a small glimpse of McCade outside Coors and actually looking great this season. Sigh. Poor guy got drafted by the wrong team.

231. Germán Márquez (COL)  – Hey. I didn’t forget about you.

232. Tanner Gordon (ATL) – Or you.

233. Bradley Blalock (BOS) – Or that your initials are literally the thing you try to avoid.

234. Chase Dollander (COL) – Nick! This is unfair! He’s actually good, it’s just that he’s on the Rockies! How can you put him so low? You answered the question yourself.

235. Antonio Senzatela (COL) – SENZ-A. WE MEET AGAIN. Oh wait, you’re leaving? Yeah, you’re probably exhausted. I get it.

 

And finally, here’s a table of all players after #100 in one convenient place because you’ve already read the notes. Thanks for that.

 

2026 Starting Pitcher Rankings 101-235(?!)

Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)