And then there were two. Unsurprisingly the Los Angeles Dodgers are representing the National League and from a near flatline pulse the Toronto Blue Jays marooned the Mariners en route to their first World Series appearance since 1993.
Pundits have quickly dismissed the series as a formality in which the Dodgers will female dog slap the Jays into submission similar to how they dispatched the Milwaukee Brewers seemingly with ease. Is there a path for Toronto to make the series competitive, even bring a trophy to Canada?
While it would be quite the upset, it’s not impossible if only because it’s a 7-game series and it’s baseball. With the acknowledgement that the likeliest scenario appears to be that the star-studded Dodgers coast to a win in 4 or 5 games, let’s take a gander at where the Blue Jays might be able to stake a claim for an upset.
Upset Factor #1: Good Hitting Beats Good Pitching?
The axiom is that “good pitching beats good hitting,” leading to expectations that post-season games will be low scoring compared to the regular season. And certainly it’s daunting to go up against Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani, all of whom shone brightly in the NLCS.
What the Blue Jays have going for them is that in general they have fared well against the best pitchers and appear to be a lineup relatively capable of thriving against quality arms. This showed up in the ALCS when they knocked George Kirby around for 8 ER in 4 IP game 3 and punished Logan Gilbert in game 6 for 5 runs (4 ER) in 4 IP.
Toronto’s lineup excels at making contact, striking out less than any other team, and has a track record of relative success against “aces”. Neutralizing the potential dominance of the Dodgers’ 4 SP would go a long way to setting up a potential upset.
Upset Factor #2: Star Power In Canada Too
The Dodgers have big name stars in spades, from Ohtani to Mookie Betts to Freddie Freeman, but Toronto can boast some star power — players capable of turning a series on its head — of its own.
Obviously there’s Vlad Guerrero Jr., named ALCS MVP and now .442/.510/.930 with 6 HR in 11 post-season games. If he continues at anything like that pace he has a chance to impact the outcome of multiple games.
Also in that conversation is the mini Mr. October, George Springer, whose dramatic 7th inning HR in game 7 not only propelled Toronto to the World Series, it also helped him rise the charts in post-season HRs where he now trails only Manny Ramirez and Jose Altuve all time.
The Blue Jays will rely on big contributions from lesser known names such as Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes, Alejandro Kirk, and Ernie Clement, but Vlad and Springer could go a long way to carrying the team in big moments and in a 7-game series just a couple dramatic knocks can sway everything. Just ask the Mariners.
Upset Factor #3: Layoff Vs. Rest
This is an age old debate: is it better or worse to have a long layoff between series? While it’s unknown how a one week layoff will impact Los Angeles, what’s more reliable to say is that the 3 days off is perfect for the Blue Jays.
Their weary bullpen, led by Louis Varland’s 10 appearances in 11 games, gets a much needed respite. Jeff Hoffman threw 2 innings in game 6 and 1 inning in game 7, but now has 3 days off to recover and should be fully good to go Friday.
As for the rotation, even with Kevin Gausman coming in to pitch an inning out of the bullpen in game 7, with 3 days off he should be ready for a game 1 start Friday if John Schneider wants to use the same rotation as he used for the ALCS. Or Trey Yesavage would be exactly on turn, so multiple good options are there for the Blue Jays to choose from.
In contrast, no matter how you slice it every Dodgers SP will be on long rest, which means out of their normal routine. That’s far from a disaster, but it’s also not ideal.
So there are some talking points as to how the Blue Jays could and might make a run at the trophy against the odds. Do you think they have a shot, and if so what factor most leads you to that conclusion? All I can say for sure is that I will be rooting for Toronto, something that along with $4.50 will get you a latte.