First baseman Josh Naylor’s free agency will be one of the biggest Seattle Mariners storylines to follow this offseason.

Naylor quickly became one of the Mariners’ most valuable and beloved players during his two-plus months with the team following the July 24 trade that brought him to Seattle.

Seattle Mariners chair John Stanton writes open letter to fans

The 28 year old added a needed impact bat to the middle of the order, hitting .299 with an .831 OPS and 19 extra-base hits in 54 games with the M’s. He impressed with standout defense at first base, posting five defensive runs saved and three outs above average. He surprised by being a difference-maker on the basepaths, swiping 19 bags without a caught stealing. And his always-intense demeanor brought an edge the team didn’t have before.

Naylor’s stint in Seattle made him perhaps the greatest trade deadline add in franchise history. Now the M’s are tasked with trying to bring him back to the Pacific Northwest.

How much will it cost?

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, a former MLB general manager, recently projected Naylor to get a four-year, $90 million contract in his predictions for the top 50 free agents.

With Bowden’s projection in mind, Brock and Salk co-host Brock Huard asked ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan how much competition the Mariners will have trying to sign Naylor.

Passan pointed out how the recent examples of stars Pete Alonso and Freddie Freeman show teams have reservations about signing first basemen to long-term deals.

Alonso hit free agency last year. He was a four-time All-Star who had hit at least 30 home runs in every season of his six-year career outside of the COVID-shorted 2020 campaign, including reaching 40 homers three times. Yet Alonso’s market was scarce and he ended up re-signing with the New York Mets on a two-year deal in February.

When Freeman hit free agency following the 2021 season, he was an MVP winner and five-time All-Star. The Atlanta Braves quickly moved on, trading for Matt Olson. And Freeman remained a free agent until just before the 2022 campaign started, signing a six-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers in March.

“That’s the thing about it, first basemen in free agency, they don’t do great,” Passan said. “We’ve seen this with Pete Alonso. We’ve seen this with Freddie Freeman. And the reason Freddie Freeman is a Dodger is because of the industry aversion to signing first basemen to long-term contracts.”

That indicates there may not be a lot suitors looking to bring in Naylor, at least for a lengthy contract, but Passan believes Naylor’s situation has the potential to be different.

He thinks the 28-year-old Naylor’s age would be why, especially compared to Freeman, who was 32 when he signed with the Dodgers. But Seattle will still have to wrestle with the idea of going against a league-wide trend to re-sign Naylor.

“I think that they understand as great as Josh Naylor was, first basemen’s markets in free agency just aren’t all that immense,” Passan said. “And so four (years) for $90 (million)? Yeah, I guess. It’s certainly more than the three (years) for $52.5 (million) we talked about last time, right? But I think the three (years), $52.5 (million) was also before the postseason that Josh Naylor had and the proof that he belongs in this lineup.

“It’s not that they would like him, it’s not that they would need him in free agency. It’s that, if they don’t have him, it’s going to feel empty. And after a year like this, that’s not something the Mariners want to be doing.”

Hear the full conversation at this link or in the audio player in this story. Listen to Brock and Salk weekdays from 6-10 a.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app. 

Seattle Mariners coverage

• Check-In: How Mariners prospects are doing in Arizona Fall League
• These prospects could debut for the Mariners in 2026
• Mariners Offseason: Why trade is best way to add impact
• Drayer: Still reeling, Mariners know they ‘need to do more’
• Jerry Dipoto discusses Seattle Mariners’ anticipated 2026 payroll