With the 20th pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, the Atlanta Braves drafted Illinois prep right-handed pitcher Owen Murphy. The pick was seen as a slight surprise, but the team fell in love with the former two-way star for his mix of stuff, pitchability, and upside and grabbed a prep pitcher over some college arms and bats.

What were the expectations?

There weren’t any real expectations for Murphy this year, just to see him get out on the mound and pitch. That’s because after a decent 2023 season split between Augusta and Rome, he opened 2024 back in Rome and seemed primed for a breakout. Through his first seven starts there in 2024 he pitched to a 1.54 ERA and 0.73 WHIP with 60 strikeouts in 41 innings.

Unfortunately in his seventh start, he blew out his elbow in mid-May and required Tommy John surgery. Similar to JR Ritchie a year earlier, Murphy was beginning his breakout season but an injury got in the way. So the 2025 expectation was just to see him out there finishing his rehab so he could get out there and compete again, helping knock out that TJ+1 season where so many pitchers take time to rediscover their stuff and command.

Murphy didn’t get his season going until July 22, but once he did he made some noise for himself. He started in the FCL and went three dominant innings, striking out five and not allowing any hits or walks. That earned him a promotion back to Rome, where he made his final six appearances of the season. With Rome he pitched to 1.32 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts to six walks over 27.1 innings.

Pretty much everything went right for Murphy this year. It took him a little time to get back, but once he did, he just started mowing hitters down from the jump. His one outing in the FCL was so good he just got himself bumped back up to Rome immediately, and he had nothing but success there.

Nothing went wrong in a year that was more about getting back out there healthy, but saw him pitch to a 1.19 ERA and 0.69 WHIP over his 30.1 innings. You could argue maybe he was facing a level of competition lower than he should have been, but for someone in his position it is just hard to argue for anything to go differently due to how notoriously tough the return from TJ can be for pitchers.

The 2026 season will be a bigger test for Murphy. It is expected that he will reach the upper minors and Double-A for the first time in his career. It will also be his TJ+2 season, which is a better test for where a pitcher really may find himself after the surgery. Predicting his exact path to Atlanta right now is a little hard before we see just where his command and stuff are, but it is important to remember he will be in his age-22 season only, despite missing a year of developmental time due to injury.

2026 will go a long way towards defining if Murphy is more of a potential solid #3 starter at the big league level, or potentially something more. The Braves are just hoping his second year can resemble the return of JR Ritchie, similar to how the breakout and injury did previously.