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To get the greatest value from Mason Miller, should the San Diego Padres transition him into a starting pitcher in 2026?
A trade of top prospect Leodalis De Vries and three minor league arms (Braden Nett, Eduarniel Nunez, and Henry Baez) landed the San Diego Padres one of the most prized pitchers in all of baseball.
Mason Miller was acquired by A.J. Preller at the 2025 trade deadline in a surprising move by San Diego.
The 27-year-old is widely considered one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball. Armed with a triple-digit fastball that reaches 105 mph and a wipeout slider, Miller is a unique arm with unlimited upside. The Padres possess four more years of control of the pitcher, as he is not set for free agency until after the 2029 season.
Miller is an important piece for the future, but some argue his real value remains as a starting pitcher.
While speaking to reporters a few weeks ago, A.J. Preller mentioned that Miller and Adrian Morejon may be used in a starting capacity next season. He did not rule out either pitcher entering the starting staff to begin the 2026 season. It may be a long shot, but the G.M. is considering it.
Both men were key pieces to the success of the bullpen in 2025. Losing each to the rotation would be a tough pill to swallow. That surely leaves the Padres hesitant to make any move.
“We’ll get together as a group,” Preller said of Miller. “We’ll have our thoughts and definitely get Mason’s thoughts and hear what he thinks is best. We will see how the offseason plays out, roster-wise. Then we’ll have some clear direction for him of what that looks like.”
Robert Suarez will likely opt out of his current deal and test the free agent market this winter. The Padres may lose their closer, and with his departure, Miller would be the only viable option for the 9th inning role. This may not be the best time to transition Miller to a starting pitcher, but the Padres also have issues in the starting staff. Something must be done.
Michael King and Dylan Cease will also seek new deals this winter. Each pitcher will likely throw somewhere else next year, though the Padres may elect to re-sign King if the price is right. He also may remain with the Padres in 2026 as he holds a mutual option for $15 million. The odds say he will explore a long-term deal, though. Nothing is certain as of yet.
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Can Miller make the move back to the rotation?
Mason Miller was drafted in the third round of the 2021 MLB Draft out of Gardner-Webb University (Boiling Springs, NC). He also played at Waynesburg University (Waynesburg, PA) for four seasons. In his five total collegiate seasons, Miller started 38 of the 50 games he appeared in for both teams. The right-handed pitcher threw 92 innings in his senior season at Gardner-Webb, where he made 14 starts. He is capable of starting.
In fact, in the minors, Miller only came out of the pen once in his 16 minor league appearances. He showed immediate ability once drafted, and the A’s rushed him to the majors. He started for the team as he made his major league debut in 2023. In his third professional start in the majors, Miller threw seven shutout innings against the Mariners, throwing 100 pitches. His next start, he went six-plus innings against the Royals, throwing over 90 pitches.
After making that fourth start of the season, Miller reported elbow discomfort.
The fireballer spent four months on the shelf with a slight sprain of his UCL. When he returned in September, Miller only pitched in two or three-inning stints and never eclipsed 54 pitches in an outing. He transitioned into a closer for the 2024 season, saved 28 games, and became an A.L. All-Star. That is where he’s pitched since that slight elbow injury, but it may be time to unleash the pitcher.
His stuff will play. The fastball/slider combination is dominant. His third pitch, a change-up, is a work in progress. He is improving on his deception of the change, and it should be serviceable if he is allowed to start games. Honestly, his fastball and slider combination alone would be adequate to get major league hitters out three times in a game. His stuff is that good.
What to do moving forward with Mason Miller?
The elephant in the room is his arm health.
Mason Miller is valuable, and you would hate to injure him by extending him too far too soon. The Padres could only expect somewhere near 100 innings from the pitcher in 2026. He has never totaled over that in a baseball season, and it would be irresponsible to push him much further than that. The Padres are built to win now. They will want Mason Miller to pitch in the playoffs. Limiting his innings will surely affect that. This isn’t an ideal situation.
If Miller makes it through 2026 with no issues, the team can increase that total innings slightly again in 2027 to 130-150 innings. But the reality is a 180-plus inning season from Mason Miller would not happen until 2028 at the very earliest. That is still two years of potential domination. But it will need to be built up to that.
So, what do you do if you are the Padres?
Do you allow Miller to close games for the next four years and not mess with him? That is the safe bet. He is a top closer in the game. Or do you risk turning him into a Paul Skenes-like pitcher at the top of your rotation? That would provide the most value for the team, but there are sure to be bumps in the road. The Padres paid a hefty price for the pitcher; they may want the most value from him in the long run.
It will all come down to where the holes are on the roster for 2026. The Padres could use a closer (if Robert Suarez leaves), and they definitely need help in the starting rotation (especially if Michael King leaves). Though Miller will be limited in what he can deliver in 2026, pitching in that capacity could be amazing for San Diego.
A.J. Preller and the front office will be fluid, as always, in constructing the roster for 2026. They are surely working on several angles.
One of the most important pieces for 2026 is Mason Miller. His future may be cloudy right now, but in time, we will gain clarity. Unlike last season, the Padres should be active fairly early in the winter market. There are a lot of decisions that need to be made. They will have some money to spend. What to do with Mason Miller is a big decision moving forward. Anything can happen.
James was born and raised in America’s Finest City. He is a passionate baseball fan with even more passion towards his hometown Padres. James has written about the Padres and their prospects for over a decade. He also writes about San Diego State as well as other local sports. James is the Editor-In-Chief of EastVillageTimes.com. Always striving to bring you the highest quality in San Diego Sports News. Original content, with original ideas, that’s our motto. Enjoy.
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