On Jan. 29, 2024, the Minnesota Twins traded fan-favorite infielder Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners for starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani, reliever Justin Topa, right-handed hitting prospect Gabriel Gonzalez, and right-handed pitching prospect Darren Bowen. Despite being undeserving of the “blockbuster” tag, the swap between Minnesota and Seattle served as both organization’s most notable transactions two offseasons ago, with expectations of Polanco, DeSclafani, and Topa playing significant roles for their respective playoff-seeking clubs.

Unfortunately, the trade’s desired results did not come to fruition. Polanco struggled at the plate and in the field for Seattle, evidenced by him generating a substandard 92 wRC+ over 469 plate appearances and a -10 Outs Above Average (OAA). After undergoing forearm flexor tendon surgery, DeSclafani didn’t throw a single pitch for Minnesota. Topa also battled significant injuries, resulting in the expected mid-to-high-leverage reliever tossing only 2 â…“ innings for the already eliminated-from-playoff-contention Twins in late September. Gonzalez and Bowen also struggled at High-A Cedar Rapids last season, looking like a shell of the prospects they were in Seattle’s system a season prior. 

Topa, Gonzalez, and Bowen remained with Minnesota, hoping to rebound from their lackluster 2024 campaigns. DeSclafani eventually departed from the Twins, going unsigned last offseason before agreeing to a minor league contract with the New York Yankees earlier this month. Polanco also reached free agency last offseason after the Mariners declined his $12 million team option. However, the veteran infielder somewhat surprisingly re-signed with Seattle in early February, agreeing to a one-year, $7 million deal with a vesting option for 2026. 

A once-exciting trade between Seattle and Minnesota quickly became a sunk-cost circumstance, with both organizations attempting to squeeze whatever minimal value remained from the players. Much to the surprise of both organizations, however, the petals of the once-detested deal have come to bloom a season later than expected. Polanco has evolved into one of baseball’s best hitters this season, generating a 183 wRC+ over 126 plate appearances. Seattle has also mitigated his defensive shortcomings, starting the 31-year-old almost exclusively at designated hitter. 

Alongside star position players Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena, Polanco’s superb swing has guided Seattle to a one-and-a-half-game lead over the Texas Rangers in the AL West. Simultaneously, Topa has been a steady force in Minnesota’s bullpen, generating 1.84 ERA and 2.90 FIP over 14 â…” innings pitched. The 34-year-old right-handed pitcher has grown into the mid-to-high leverage reliever the Twins hoped he would last season, resulting in the club finally generating value from the deal at the major league level. 

Gonzalez and Bowen are also finding their fitting at their respective minor league levels. Over 152 plate appearances at High-A, Gonzalez is hitting .319/.375/.526 with 43 hits, 12 walks, and a 145 wRC+. Last season’s power outage also appears to be resolved for the 21-year-old, evidenced by him hitting five home runs (the same amount he hit at High-A last season) over 163 fewer plate appearances. Still sporting a plus eye at the plate, evidenced by his 13.8% strikeout rate, the former Top 100 prospect could quickly find himself climbing back up Twins’ top prospect rankings list after undergoing a significant tumble last season.

Bowen is thriving this season, too, manufacturing a 2.89 ERA over 28 innings pitched at Double-A. The 24-year-old’s peripherals (6.03 FIP, 97.5% left on base rate, and an underwhelming 19.5% strikeout rate) suggest he is beneficiary of luck falling on his side early this season. However, considering his early season success and impressive fastball-slider combination, Bowen could eventually contribute to the parent club, even if it occurs as a reliever.

Nevertheless, after initially looking like a defective deal, Seattle and Minnesota are finally benefitting from their late January 2024 swap, even though it’s occurring a season later than expected.