It’s a thought that has crossed my mind and the minds of many Miami Marlins fans, it seems: What if the Marlins tried bringing back Luis Arraez this offseason?
Arraez’s 2023 season will go down as one of the best offensive seasons in franchise history. As Miami’s starting second baseman, he set the franchise single-season record for batting average (.354) and cruised to the National League batting title. He was the biggest contributor to their postseason berth that year.
During the following spring training, Arraez expressed a desire to remain with the Marlins long term, but his wish was not granted. Just over a month into the 2024 season, new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix shipped off the fan favorite to the San Diego Padres in exchange for prospects Dillon Head, Jakob Marsee, Nathan Martorella and Woo-Suk Go. It was one of the toughest days in what turned out to be an 100-loss season.
In hindsight, Bendix made a smart decision. In 55 major league games, Marsee has produced just as much fWAR (2.2) as Arraez did during his 271 games with the Padres (2.0). Marsee is expected to be the Marlins’ everyday center fielder in 2026. Head, a former first-round draft pick, is still one of the organization’s top outfield prospects. Indirectly, Arraez’s departure opened up more playing time for Otto Lopez, who has since established himself as the club’s starting shortstop.
Meanwhile, Arraez will enter free agency next week and he’s projected to cost far less now than if the Marlins had extended him coming off his career year.
Although Arraez won the 2024 NL batting title, there was a 40-point dip from the previous season and even bigger differences in his on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He provided even less offensive value in 2025, slashing .292/.327/.392/.719 with eight home runs, 61 RBI and a 104 wRC+.
Defensively, Arraez has made the move over to first base, playing 117 games there this season compared to only 14 at second base. He had three defensive runs saved at his new position with a career-high .999 fielding percentage, but also minus-seven outs above average.
With that being said, this version of Arraez still likely makes the Marlins better in the short term. Eric Wagaman, who was the team’s primary first baseman this season, slashed .250/.297/.378/.674 with nine home runs, 53 RBI and an 85 wRC+. Troy Johnston emerged late in the season, slashing .277/.331/.420/.750 with four home runs, 13 RBI and a 109 wRC+, but he only played against right-handed pitching. Prospect Deyvison De Los Santos struggled in his first full season with the organization, posting an 85 wRC+ at the Triple-A level and only hitting 12 home runs after a 40-homer year in 2024.
It’s a question of how Arraez compares to some of the other veteran first basemen available in free agency or potentially via trade.
The 28-year-old continues to be the very best in MLB at putting balls in play, only striking out 3.1% of the time in 2025. He finished second to Bobby Witt Jr. with 181 total hits. Part of that is durability—Arraez has averaged 149 games played over the last four seasons and just set a new career-high with 154.
Something else to consider: In 2025, the Marlins ranked 27th in home runs, obviously showing the need for a power bat. Signing a spray hitter like Arraez to play first base would put the pressure on young players at other positions to step up in that area. Someone like Griffin Conine could help if he’s able to stay healthy through the course of a full season. Coming up through the minor leagues, the organization also has Kemp Alderman and Joe Mack, who were the top two home run hitters amongst Marlins prospects in 2025 and are likely to debut next season.
Defensively, Arraez’s flaws could be partially covered up by having good infielders around him. Xavier Edwards is a Gold Glove finalist at second base, while Otto Lopez and Graham Pauley graded out positively at shortstop and third base, respectively.
The ability to make contact with everything made Arraez a fan favorite. His antics at the plate and pure love for the game would help the Marlins on the marketing side of things. The Arraez family resides in Florida during the offseason, so geographically, it’s a comfortable fit—maybe it is more than a coincidence that he had his greatest success in a Marlins uniform.
When it comes to Arraez’s price range, would he be willing to take a one-year deal with a salary similar to the $14 million that he earned in 2025? From the Marlins’ perspective, they will want the option of flipping him for more prospects at the trade deadline if they are in a position to sell and Arraez is having a strong season.
Being younger than most players in the 2025-26 free agent class but having a limited skill set, Arraez is a complicated free agent case.