Do you ever feel like punishing yourself for no real reason?

That’s not the feeling that led me to revisit the “Bold Predictions” I made about the 2025 White Sox heading into the season, but by the time I was done with them, it sure felt like an exercise in self-flagellation. That’s a bit of hyperbole – I didn’t miss the mark completely on everything – but as a writer and would-be analyst, it’s always helpful to check your own record every once in a while. Most of these didn’t turn out great, but the underlying logic behind them often felt more solid than the final results would indicate, so there’s a bit of give-and-take, even if it reads as excuse-making.

Anyhow, let’s nail my predictive abilities to the cross and see how far off I landed on some of 2025’s more out-there picks.

Davis Martin makes the All-Star team, leads Sox pitchers in WAR

I went big and bold off the rip, and while this one wound up being pretty off the mark, I’d like to think my heart was roughly in the right place. Martin wound up finishing fourth on the staff in rWAR (1.5), trailing Adrian Houser (3.0), Mike Vasil (2.9), and Shane Smith (2.4), and with a 1.3 fWAR that slotted in behind Smith (2.2), Houser (1.7), and Grant Taylor (1.7). I’m not going to dock him for the statistical oddity that was the magical Adrian Houser Run. Still, being unable to supplant either Vasil or Taylor – the reason for the disparity being that rWAR values Vasil’s 2.50 ERA and doesn’t care about his 4.32 FIP, while fWAR disregards Taylor’s 4.91 ERA and salivates over his 1.42 FIP – prevents me from claiming even a spiritual victory, unfortunately.

Still, I think my logic here wasn’t terrible. Martin’s season was solid and unspectacular, which I felt was a likely enough scenario to justify going bold by taking it a step further. I’ll give myself credit for guessing that the group of Smith, Martin, Jonathan Cannon, and Sean Burke would generate at least one surprise breakout. But alas, I simply backed the wrong horse, as Smith wound up taking home the unexpected All-Star bid that I thought might go to Martin — which segues perfectly into the final prediction I submitted in the spring.

Shane Smith saves at least 15 games this year

Once again, dead wrong, but my heart was in the right place! There was never any doubt that Smith’s stuff would earn him a shot at the spotlight, whether in the rotation or bullpen. As I wrote at the time, Smith “certainly earned a shot to stick as a starter with an electric showing in Spring Training, but he also made it clear that he has the stuff to succeed in the back of a bullpen if starting doesn’t work out.”

I suspected that Smith’s upside as a reliever and some minor league breakouts would get him pushed to the bullpen, and that’s where I missed the mark wholeheartedly. I’m still pretty confident Smith would have wound up taking the ball in the ninth inning enough to become a solidified closer, had he gotten moved out of the rotation. I correctly assessed that the Sox bullpen “is going to look like Highlander in 2025,” with 22 pitchers taking the ball at least 10 times and none of them registering more than Jordan Leasure’s seven saves. But virtually nobody in the minor leagues pushed for a shot in the rotation all season. While I was skeptical that Smith’s spring stuff would hold up into the regular season, he took that skepticism out back to the woodshed, actually throwing steadily harder as the season wore on. Once again, I might have hit the green, but fell about three putts short of the hole.

At least two of Hagen Smith, Edgar Quero, and Noah Schultz earn Rookie of the Year votes

We’ve got a few weeks to go until award finalists are released, but this one is all but decided. Quero is nearly certain to receive some down-ballot Rookie of the Year votes, and neither Smith nor Schultz is eligible, having failed to reach the majors. My reasoning at the time was that if Smith or Schultz made their debuts in 2025, they’d be pitching well enough that they’d be in a position to at least catch a few stray votes. Well, they didn’t pitch all that well, and they didn’t make their debuts. Not necessarily mistaken in my general assessment of the situation, but yet again backed the wrong horses. I figured at least one of Smith or Schultz was primed to pop, and totally whiffed on it.

I’m just going to reprint what I wrote about Quero, because it’s a pretty hilarious combination of being right and being wrong at the same time:

“Quero doesn’t have the supercharged skill set of Smith, but his combination of power and plate discipline should translate to The Show without much of an adjustment period, if they’re going to translate at all… Quero’s long-term success in the majors will probably be dependent on whether he can stay at catcher, but in the immediate his bat-to-ball ability, extensive professional experience, and the relative stability he’s shown moving level-to-level makes him a stronger candidate to make an impact in 2025 than fellow top backstop Kyle Teel.”

The power didn’t really pop, as he slugged just .353, but the plate discipline and contact ability sure did. He chased pitches out of the zone less than 97% of MLB hitters, and made contact in general at a well-above-average rate. He walked at a league-average rate while striking out considerably less. There are still questions about whether he’ll stay at catcher, but his wiles behind the plate, on top of that league-average-ish bat, are what’s going to get him those Rookie of the Year votes.

So, I was feeling pretty solid about this one… until that last line hit. Oops.

Colson Montgomery starts at least 80 games, but fails to cement himself as the shortstop of the future

Oops again? This one looked great at the beginning of July, when Montgomery was called up just in time to bring it to fruition, potentially. Naturally, I’m pretty pleased that it didn’t. Moving on!

Bryan Ramos is a lineup fixture by the end of the season

Ramos started three games for the 2025 White Sox, notching two hits (both doubles) in 12 plate appearances. He slashed .216/.309/.396 in 105 games for the Charlotte Knights. The door isn’t completely shut on Ramos making an impact for the Sox, as he’s still just 23. His power numbers in Charlotte still weren’t terrible, and the team’s infield for 2026 and beyond is far from settled. It’ll just have to wait for another year of bold predictions. Next!

Andrew Vaughn is non-tendered after the season

There’s a slight philosophical angle to deciding whether to give myself a check mark for this one. Did I correctly predict that Vaughn would play poorly enough that the Sox would opt against paying market value for his services after this season? Yes, definitely. Is Andrew Vaughn almost sure to be tendered a contract this month by the Milwaukee Brewers, the team for which he posted a .308 batting average and 141 OPS+ after being dealt post-DFA? Also, yes, definitely.

Overall, looking back at these, I’ll be kind and give myself some pity credit. Some were a lot less bold than others, and while I was pretty far off on most of them, the thought process behind them was sound enough that I’m not feeling too sorry about it. Hopefully, I’ll do better on the next set of predictions, which are always fun to throw into the ether. Check back soon, as I’ll toss six more fortune cookies in the air about what kind of offseason we’re about to see on the South Side.