Happy Halloween, all! For those in need of a good scare on this spooky holiday, I present to you a rumored trade target of the Boston Red Sox with the following qualifications:

33 years old

Six years, $153 million remaining on current contract

Relegated exclusively to first base/designated hitter

Hasn’t played 150+ games in a season since 2019

Hit .261/.357/.487 with a 131 wRC+ in 2025

That’s impressive production at the plate, but at that age and with that contract, you can be sure Craig Breslow and the front office will be scared off from pulling the trigger on a trade, regardless of the name or how luscious his beard is.

Indeed, Bryce Harper appears likely to hit the trade market this winter, though not because of any serious decline in his performance or a demolition of the aging Philadelphia Phillies’ core. Instead, old friend Dave Dombrowski found himself running his mouth to the media, saying that Harper, while still an All-Star, might no longer be the elite player he once was. Though those comments were later walked back, Dombrowski never totally shut down trade speculation surrounding his first baseman, leading to an ongoing saga in which Harper has been vocal about feeling betrayed by the franchise.

If you’re more into sports drama than I am, you know there’s more to the story than that, but the point of this isn’t the dysfunction sinking the 2022 National League pennant winners. It’s that Harper, for the first time since the end of his tenure with the Washington Nationals, is truly available, though this time via trade rather than free agency.

The first base problem remains a confounding one in Boston. Triston Casas has long been expected to be the solution, but injuries have completely derailed a once-promising career. After three straight years of posting a wRC+ above 120, the 25-year-old managed a paltry 56 mark in 2025 before a ruptured left patellar tendon ended his season prematurely in early May. Both he and Nathaniel Lowe will likely be tendered contracts via arbitration this offseason (Casas is more likely to stay than Lowe if push comes to shove), but counting on either to produce commensurate with other All-Star talent at a premium offensive position is a fool’s errand.

Thus, unless you believe playing Romy Gonzalez on an everyday basis or trusting Kristian Campbell‘s glove are good ideas, then you’ll come to the same conclusion the Red Sox have: The team needs to acquire a new first baseman this offseason.

I, like many others, like Pete Alonso‘s fit in Fenway Park, but I also know that Breslow isn’t going to be giving him the contract he wants. He was great in 2025 (141 wRC+) but merely above-average in the two seasons prior. Handing him $30+ million a year just to strikeout 25% of the time isn’t good business, especially if his elite power wanes as he ages deeper into his thirties.

Harper is a higher-floor, lower-ceiling alternative to Alonso, and the Red Sox could probably get the Phillies to pay a decent portion of his remaining deal if they were willing to part with a legitimate prospect in return. Even so, six years of guaranteed salary is a lot to pay for a guy who, in Dombrowski’s words, is no longer elite.

That characterization is unfortunately true, no matter how much Harper doesn’t like it. After posting a 150 wRC+ in 2020 and a 170 mark in 2021, he’s sat in the 130-140 range over the past four seasons. That’s still a huge step up from what the Red Sox got out of the cold corner in 2025 (.244/.305/.386, 86 wRC+), but a first baseman who hits like that isn’t quite the same as a right fielder who wins MVP awards. Sure, Harper has also become a quality defender at first base since shifting in from the outfield, accruing eight Outs Above Average, four Fielding Run Value, and two Defensive Runs Saved since the start of 2024 (over 2,300 innings at first base), but he’s getting paid Freddie Freeman money to be, well, not as good as Freddie Freeman.

In reality, even if Harper was producing like his old self, he’d still be a tough sell for the Red Sox. The front office has been very careful about spending long-term money in anticipation of the 2027 lockout, reserving those contracts for very young members of their current core. Players who don’t fit that description (Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman, Kenley Jansen, etc.) have been jettisoned via trade or shown the door to free agency in recent years. Owing Harper $20+ million in 2031, when he’ll be 38 years old, flies in the face of that philosophy.

I don’t think many were banging the drum for the Red Sox to chase Harper this winter, but I did want to remind people of a few things:

Just because someone isn’t “elite” doesn’t mean they’re bad; if Harper was recording a 130-140 wRC+ every year and was five years younger, he’d be considered a steal at his current contract.

There are alternatives to Alonso on the first base market, though every option will have major flaws. There’s no perfect fit, including Alonso himself.

The Red Sox absolutely have to find more competition for Casas and Lowe at first base in 2026. An 86 wRC+ at first base across an entire season is untenable for a contending team.

It’s more likely than not that the Phillies and Harper make up and move forward together, if only because convincing another contending team to take on the back half of his contract is going to be a nightmare. There’s reason to squint and convince yourself that he’d be a strong immediate upgrade over what the Red Sox can field at first base next year—especially if they miss out on Alonso—but odds are the front office will be happier rolling with what it has than trying to finagle the two-time MVP’s contract into their accounting books.