It’s now or never for the Seattle Mariners, who will turn to 2023 All-Star pitcher George Kirby in Game 7 of the ALCS on Monday night against the Blue Jays in Toronto.

Mariners need to be sharper in Game 7 than they were in Game 6

Kirby has a strong postseason track record. In his first four career playoff outings, he allowed just three earned runs on 15 hits, two walks and three hit batters with 20 strikeouts over 18 innings, equaling to a 1.50 ERA. But the Blue Jays turned that on its head in this series.

In Game 3 of the ALCS last Wednesday, Toronto’s deep lineup pounded Kirby in Seattle for eight earned runs on eight hits and two walks over four innings. The Blue Jays went on to win 13-4, tied the best-of-seven series at 2-2 the next day, and rebounded after the Mariners’ emotional Game 5 victory on Friday with a 6-2 win on Sunday to force a decisive Game 7.

MLB on FOX analyst John Smoltz knows all about pitching in the postseason, as the Hall of Fame right-hander pitched in 41 playoff games, was the NLCS MVP in 1992 and won a World Series with the Atlanta Braves in 1996. He believes Kirby will be on his game Monday at Rogers Centre.

“I think Kirby’s going to bounce back,” Smoltz told Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk on Monday morning. “Because a pitcher, when you’ve had something happen to you for the first time that’s never happened, you have a chance… to reset, you make the necessary adjustment, you watch what’s going on. … I go to the stars that have been carrying this ball club, and in a moment like this, I think they have a chance to deliver a significant blow.”

There’s one big key Smoltz has for Kirby to be successful in the first Game 7 in Mariners history.

“I know this sounds simple and I know it seems elementary, but my philosophy has always been – whether it’s a Game 7 or a postseason, but more importantly in a Game 7 – always get the first hitter out,” he said. “You got less stress, and if the next guy gets on, you’re a ground ball away from a double play and getting out of the inning. But if you can keep getting the leadoff hitters out, you dull the roar of the crowd and you put yourself in a less of a heartbeat situation.”

That will be especially important against a Blue Jays team that led MLB in batting average this season and is elite at stringing hits together. But the Mariners’ lineup has its own strength that can show up Monday night.

“When they get on base, they’re just the best in baseball,” Smoltz said of the Blue Jays. “And the same thing on the other side, when Seattle is… taking their walks, creating those big swing moments, they’re as good as anybody in baseball. So it really is strength against strength, and who imposes their will either on the mound or at the plate is going to have a decided advantage in this great winner-take-all.”

But above all, Kirby could be the most important piece of the puzzle for the Mariners in Game 7 by giving Seattle something it has been missing in this series: a long outing from a starting pitcher.

“Seattle, with the ability to play close games and get great pitching, it’s been a little bit confusing because of how they got here,” Smoltz said. “I mean, they’ve had to use so many pitchers, and they’ve had to exhaust so many to get here. This has been a phenomenal year, and they’ve got a chance to go to the World Series, and I think they’re in position to do it if they can get just a little bit of length out of their starter tonight.

“I think Seattle’s formula works when they get their starting pitching. They’ve got a nasty bullpen, but obviously they gotta get a couple big hits. They do that throughout the year, and if they do that tonight, they’re gonna go to the World Series for the first time ever.”

Hear the full Brock and Salk conversation with Smoltz at this link or in the video and audio players near the top of this post.

Game 7 of the ALCS between the Mariners and Blue Jays is set for a 5:10 p.m. first pitch on Monday night. The radio broadcast will be on the Seattle Sports app beginning at 4 p.m. with the Mariners Radio Network pregame show, as well as on 770 AM and 98.9 FM. On TV, the game will be on FOX with Smoltz on the call alongside play-by-play announcer Joe Davis.

Seattle Mariners ALCS coverage

• Radio: Both M’s ALCS Game 7, Seahawks-Texans on Seattle Sports app
• If the Mariners are going to make World Series, this is the way it should be
• Mariners-Blue Jays Game 7 pitching matchup not just about starters
• Morosi: What stands out as M’s, Blue Jays head to Game 7
• Wrong first: Seattle Mariners to play in a Game 7 for first time