The Giants would like to win the World Series again. It’s been a little bit since the last one, and it still looks like a lot of fun. The organization will commit millions of dollars toward that goal this offseason, and there’s a tiny sliver of a chance that it might work. If those long, long odds make you feel discouraged, this might be the wrong hobby for you. That tiny sliver of a chance can warm a hot stove all winter long.
But there are other teams that are trying to win the World Series, too. THEY’RE NOT TRYING HARD ENOUGH, apparently, but they’re trying. They want to nail the offseason so that they can win the World Series, too. There will be competition for all of the players you want the Giants to pursue, and it’ll be even fiercer than you’re already expecting.
Let’s see what the offseason might hold for the Giants.
What are the Giants’ priorities? How much do they have to spend?
Good questions! And the answers for both were long enough to each get their own column. Here’s what the Giants’ offseason priorities look like, and here’s the kind of money they might have to spend.
There is one addition to those articles, which is that Ryan Walker and Patrick Bailey were both informed by their agents that they’re not getting Super Two status. That might be gibberish to you, but it could mean an extra $5 million or so for the Giants to spend this offseason.
Who are the top free agent hitters if the Giants want a bat?
If you rank the top 13 free agent position players by FanGraphs’ WAR, it looks like this:
1. Kyle Schwarber (4.9 WAR)
2. Cody Bellinger (4.9)
3. Kyle Tucker (4.5)
4. Bo Bichette (3.8)
5. Eugenio Suárez (3.8)
6. Pete Alonso (3.6)
7. Alex Bregman (3.5)
8. Harrison Bader (3.2)
9. Trent Grisham (3.2)
10. Josh Naylor (3.1)
11. Ryan O’Hearn (3.0)
12. Gleyber Torres (2.6)
13. Mike Yastrzemski (2.4)
Did I go with the top 13 specifically to get Yastrzemski on there? Yes. Yes, I did. But it wasn’t just for a nod and a wink. It’s a reminder that it doesn’t take long at all to get to the helpful, good players who aren’t going to fix a lineup by themselves. If the Giants miss out on a few guys, suddenly Yastrzemski is the best position player left (and he would make the outfield better, as it stands right now). You’re thinking bigger when it comes to lineup upgrades, though.
Kyle Schwarber would be an imperfect fit for the Giants’ lineup. (Jess Rapfogel / Getty Images)
Plus, some of these guys are lousy fits for the Giants’ roster. Schwarber has the kind of bat that can make teams get creative with how they’ll fit him into the lineup, but the Giants aren’t one of them, not unless they’re trading Bryce Eldridge and others for Tarik Skubal, which they aren’t. Even the players that should be good fits have disqualifying characteristics. Cody Bellinger is too left-handed, and so is Trent Grisham. Alex Bregman plays the same position as Matt Chapman. Harrison Bader gets injured too often.
Still, if you rework the list to include those good-but-maybe-flawed fits and eliminate the players the Giants clearly won’t be signing, it would look something like this:
1. Kyle Tucker, OF
2. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF
3. Bo Bichette, 2B
4. Harrison Bader, OF
5. Trent Grisham, OF
6. Gleyber Torres, 2B
7. Look, we’re in, like, Rob Refsnyder territory now. It’s not a deep market.
This is not the best offseason to fix a lineup. The good news is that the Giants’ lineup doesn’t need to be “fixed.” Their strongest offensive months were August and September, when they hit for more power than they had in years. It didn’t feel like a fluke, either; it made sense watching it. Of course Willy Adames can do that, and Rafael Devers can do that, and … that’s what they’re paid to do. That’s why you were supposed to be excited about them in the first place.
The Giants need a little help, not a lot of help. That Bo Bichette was really swinging it in the World Series, you know …
What about trades?
Always a possibility. MLB Trade Rumors has a list of pitchers and position players that runs 40 deep, if you’re interested in that sort of thing. The problem with digging too deeply here is that you don’t know which players are actually available, or which teams are being reasonable with their demands. Yes, it would be cool in a vacuum to see Steven Kwan on the Giants, the team he grew up rooting for, but the Guardians aren’t going to give him up for Ryan Walker and four (4) trips down the Coke bottle slide. It’s a fit that’s so impractical, it’s not even worth considering.
There is a trade fit that makes a ton of sense, though: Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe. The left-handed slugger has the kind of batted-ball metrics that would give him a chance at Oracle Park, and he’d give the Giants 30-homer potential at second base. He’ll make $11.5 million next season, and while the Rays’ new owners might not be as spending-averse as the outgoing ownership group, his salary and pending free agency make him a natural trade target.
The Giants’ bigger priority, though, will be pitching, pitching, pitching.
So who are the top starting pitchers?
Again, using FanGraphs’ WAR, the top free-agent starters:
1. Ranger Suárez (4.0 WAR)
2. Framber Valdez (4.0)
3. Dylan Cease (3.4)
4. Merrill Kelly (3.1)
5. Chris Bassitt (2.4)
6. Adrian Houser (2.3)
7. Justin Verlander (2.2)
8. Nick Martinez (2.1)
9. Lucas Giolito (2.0)
10. Tyler Mahle (1.9)
It’s not a thrill ride over here, either. On paper, Framber Valdez is the perfect fit, the closest thing to a left-handed Logan Webb that exists. In practice, he’ll have 10 teams lining up to offer him nine-figure deals. He also might have intentionally crossed up his catcher, which wouldn’t endear him much to Buster Posey.
There are other options, though. FanGraphs had a nice write-up of players coming over from Japan and Korea, and both pitchers listed in the “poised to make an impact section” should interest the Giants. Tatsuya Imai is a heckuva pitcher, even if everyone knows it. Our own Tim Britton projected him to get close to $200 million, so he’s not going to be a bargain the Giants sneak away with. He’ll be a name that you’re suddenly thinking about 17 times an hour during the Winter Meetings.
The other pitcher in that section, Cody Ponce, is a former big leaguer and 2015 second-round pick of the Brewers who added a splitter and extra velocity in the KBO, and it allowed him to dominate. He’s a large lad (6-foot-6) with mid-rotation potential, possibly at a price that allows the Giants to spend on other positions.
Who are the best pitchers in the Farhan Zaidi Legacy Tier?
That is, the pitchers who want to sign a one-year deal, put up good numbers at Oracle Park and get right back to free agency. Last year’s entrant was Justin Verlander, who was signed by Posey, so it wasn’t just a Zaidi thing. And don’t poke fun at the strategy, either — it worked remarkably well, and it continues to be a better idea than signing pitchers to long-term deals.
As usual, there are plenty of options, including:
• Max Scherzer
• Justin Verlander
• Brandon Woodruff
• Zac Gallen
• Miles Mikolas
• Dustin May
• Zack Littell
• Zach Eflin
There are also pitchers who might sign multi-year deals with an opt-out, like Shoto Imanaga, Michael King and Lucas Giolito. All of them make some measure of sense, and we’ll look at most of them in-depth before the Winter Meetings. The only thing we know is that the Giants can’t screw up their choice.
Who are the top relievers?
You don’t really want to spend money on a top reliever, do you? How quickly we forget Armando Benítez and Mark Melancon. High-priced closers are for suckers. The Giants might make a trade or two, but they’ll probably bring in a bunch of minor-league free agents who throw 98 mph and strike out 12 batters per nine innings. Maybe it’ll work out, and maybe it won’t. But they definitely aren’t spending the bulk of their finite funds on an expensive reliever.
Who. Are. The. Top. Relievers?
Fine. There’s Edwin Díaz, if you’re looking for brand recognition. Robert Suarez is just as nasty, which means he’ll be roughly as expensive. You can even spend $18 million on Kyle Finnegan if you think baseball teams should look more like your fantasy team, with a whole lot of saves up and down the roster.
Don’t balk at the idea of a reclamation project, either, even someone on the expensive side. Devin Williams might be cooked, but if he’s closer to his old self, the Giants will have a high-leverage arm to use in the late innings. If they’re contending, it’ll be exactly what they need. If they stumble again, he’ll be a popular trade target. The Giants have enough open bullpen spots to take a chance like that, too.
Counterpoint: Armando Benítez and Mark Melancon. The only reliever the Giants should sign to a multi-year deal is Tyler Rogers, and the best time to do it was yesterday. Other than that, forget it.
Predictions?
They will try for Framber Valdez, catcher-gate and all. They’ll finish second or third, but months later, it’ll come out that they weren’t really that interested. Got a feeling about this one.
They will not try for Kyle Tucker. Too expensive and too poor a fit for Oracle Park.
They will consider bringing back Verlander, even if the more obvious target in that class is Scherzer.
I’ll go with:
• Zac Gallen, 2-years/$40 million (player opt-out after first year)
• Old Hall of Fame pitcher, 1-year/$19 million
• Tyler Rogers, 2-years/$25 million
• Brandon Lowe (trade)
Not saying you should be thrilled with that kind of offseason. Just reading these here tea leaves. The Giants have surprised in recent offseasons, though, and they certainly surprised with the Devers trade. They have clear needs and only a few obvious solutions. We’ll see if they use cash, prospects or imagination to fill their holes. The safest bet might be a combination of all of the above.