Ahead of Thursday’s deadline, the Red Sox did not issue a qualifying offer to free agent starter Lucas Giolito, sources confirmed.
Giolito, who became a free agent earlier this week when his mutual option for 2026 was declined, was thought to be a candidate to receive the qualifying offer, which is valued as a one-year, $22.025 million offer for 2026. He would then have been able to accept that deal and re-sign before the November 18 deadline for such decisions, or decline it, guaranteeing the Red Sox draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere. By not issuing the qualifying offer, Boston will not receive a draft pick if Giolito signs elsewhere. He may still re-sign with the club — and his market will likely benefit from the fact clubs won’t have to sacrifice a pick to sign him.
Giolito, 31, rebounded nicely in 2025 after missing 2024 due to elbow surgery he had during spring training. The veteran had the start to his season delayed by a hamstring strain but returned to make 26 starts while logging a 3.41 ERA and striking out 121 batters in 145 innings. Giolito and Brayan Bello solidified the rotation behind ace Garrett Crochet to help the Red Sox reach the postseason for the first time since 2021.
In September, though, Giolito struggled as his velocity decreased, and he was ruled out of the postseason once he reported soreness in his pitching elbow that was too painful to pitch through. An MRI revealed irritation in Giolito’s flexor tendon — and no structural damage — but added a wrinkle as he entered the free agent market for the second time in three years. In recent weeks, sources have indicated that Giolito’s condition has improved and that his injury is not a serious one. Still, teams interested in signing him likely will review his medical records carefully.
The Red Sox would have had to be comfortable with the idea of Giolito accepting their offer to issue it, so it’s clear the $22.025 million price tag gave the club some pause as free agency opens in earnest. ESPN projected that Giolito will receive a two-year, $32 million deal this winter (with a $16 million average annual value) while The Athletic projected a three-year, $57 million contract (with a $19 million AAV) earlier this week. The Red Sox could look to find common ground and retain Giolito but appear more likely to raise the ceiling of their rotation by finding a true No. 2 behind Crochet. Bello is under contract for next year and there are more than a handful of candidates — a group including Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Kyle Harrison, Richard Fitts and Cooper Criswell — set to compete for back-end spots.
Giolito was the only real qualifying offer candidate among Boston’s eight free agents. Alex Bregman received the QO last year from Houston, making him ineligible to ever receive it again. Dustin May and Steven Matz wouldn’t have been candidates but are ineligible because they were traded midseason. Rob Refsnyder, Justin Wilson and Liam Hendriks would not command close to a $22.025 million average annual value, ruling out the possibility for them.
Thirteen players did receive qualifying offers and will be attached to draft pick compensation: Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette, Astros starter Framber Valdez, Padres starters Dylan Cease and Michael King, Phillies lefty Ranger Suárez, Mets closer Edwin Díaz, Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen, Cubs starter Shota Imanaga, Yankees outfielder Trent Grisham, Tigers second baseman Gleyber Torres and Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff.
Giolito joined the Red Sox on a two-year, $38.5 million contract (that included a player option for 2025) before the 2024 season. He declined his player option and returned in 2025 after missing the entirety of his first year with the club. By hitting 140 innings this past season, he converted a reasonable $14 million team option (that would likely be exercised) into the mutual option that was declined. The Red Sox gave him a $1.5 million buyout.
A year ago, the Red Sox made the right call in extending the qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta, who declined it, then signed with the Padres month later. Boston received a pick when Pivetta left.
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