An Octet of Viable No. 3 Starters4 of 9
Tyler Anderson, 36, LHP
136.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.9 K/9
Over the duration of his three-year, $39 million deal with the Angels, Anderson had a 4.53 ERA and a 5.02 FIP. Not great, but he had some solid stretches, including being named an All-Star in 2024 and pitching well for the first couple months of this past season.
Prediction: One year, $8M with Washington Nationals
Aaron Civale, 30, RHP
102.0 IP, 4.85 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.8 K/9
Civale was kicked around the Midwest in 2025, going from the Brewers to the White Sox to the Cubs. And the third time was the charm, as he had a 2.08 ERA in five bulk relief appearances with the Cubs before going 4.1 scoreless innings in his lone appearance of the postseason. Small sample size, but hard to argue with a strong finish.
Prediction: Two years, $18M with Detroit Tigers
Adrian Houser, 33, RHP
125.0 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
Take out the incredible 11-start run with the White Sox prior to the trade deadline and Houser has a 4.77 ERA over the past four seasons. But that was one heck of a breakout stretch and some team is going to convince itself it/he can recapture that lightning in a bottle.
Prediction: One year, $9M with Houston Astros
Zack Littell, 30, RHP
186.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
Since becoming a full-time starter midway through the 2023 campaign, Littell has been quietly solid, making 75 starts with a 3.67 ERA—on par with Nick Pivetta (3.70 ERA in 73 starts) and Pablo López (3.67 ERA in 78 starts). He also just turned 30 in October and is the pitcher from this tier who presents the best case for moving up to the “No. 2 options” level. Could end up being one of the biggest steals of the offseason.
Prediction: Three years, $40M with St. Louis Cardinals
Michael Lorenzen, 34, RHP
141.2 IP, 4.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.1 K/9
Lorenzen had some uncommonly rough luck in the BABIP department in 2025 while also allowing home runs at the highest rate of his career. It was a brutal combination that kept him from ever getting into a multi-start groove, but he did have some occasional gems, going at least seven innings on four occasions.
Prediction: One year, $7.5M with Athletics
Tyler Mahle, 31, RHP
86.2 IP, 2.18 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.9 K/9
Mahle has a 2.66 ERA over the past three seasons, but that also encompasses just 24 starts, missing most of both 2023 and 2024 following Tommy John surgery and missing half of 2025 with a rotator cuff strain. He’s a fringe ace when healthy, but that has become one of the most unreliable “when healthy” asterisks in all of baseball.
Prediction: Two years, $30M with Atlanta Braves ($13M in 2026 with a $17M club option or $4M buyout for 2027)
Nick Martinez, 35, RHP
165.2 IP, 4.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
Martinez has been treated like more of a No. 5.5 starter than a No. 3 starter, bouncing back and forth between the rotation and a bulk relief role. But he has a 3.67 ERA between his 61 starts and 131 relief appearances over the past four seasons. He made more starts in 2025 (26) than ever before, though.
Prediction: Two years, $28M with San Diego Padres
MartÃn Pérez, 35, LHP
56.0 IP, 3.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.1 K/9
Pérez missed about two-thirds of this past season, but put up numbers on par with what he gave the Padres in 10 starts after the 2024 trade deadline. And it wasn’t exactly forever ago that he was an All-Star with the Rangers in 2022. He could be a No. 2 starter in a reunion with the White Sox, but would probably be more of a No. 4 or No. 5 starter if he went across town to the Cubs.
Prediction: One year, $9M with Chicago White Sox