The Rule 5 protection deadline forces MLB teams to pick which prospects to shield from being snatched up by another team, and the Pittsburgh Pirates still have some decisions to make before Tuesday’s hard-and-fast deadline.

The Pirates have a finite number of protection spots, so sometimes the decision is not “should we protect this guy?” but rather, “which guys must we protect, and which ones can we afford to expose?” Exposure doesn’t necessarily mean the player will be taken, so the club may judge the risk of losing a given prospect is low enough to accept –– especially if the player is further out or has more development to go.

Additionally, roster space may be needed for other moves (dare we hope, some trades or free agent signings?). So it’s not purely about the individual merit of each prospect, but also the bigger 40-man management puzzle. In other words, the Pirates are likely making a triage decision — identifying the realistic set of prospects they must absolutely protect, then letting others fall off the list.

Pirates likely won’t protect these prospects ahead of Rule 5 Draft deadlineSS/3B Jack Brannigan (No. 21)

Jack Brannigan was drafted in the third round in 2022 and has shown flashes, but his 2025 season was underwhelming. At Double-A Altoona he hit .225/.329/.358 in 237 plate appearances, which is weak even accounting for the pitcher-friendly Eastern League this year.

More importantly, Brannigan suffered a labrum tear in his shoulder which required surgery, cutting his season short in July. This puts a question mark on his immediate readiness and timeline. If he’s one more year away, other orgs might be less likely to grab him via Rule 5 and the Pirates might decide the risk of losing him is acceptable.

Brannigan’s defensive profile is still interesting, but his hit tool, timing and health are all red flags at the moment. Plus, the emergence of Konnor Griffin as Pittsburgh’s shortstop of the future reduces the urgency for the Pirates to shield Brannigan.

LHP Anthony Solometo (No. 25)

Anthony Solometo was one of three major overslot picks the Pirates made in 2021, alongside Bubba Chandler and Lonnie White Jr. The southpaw was once rated among the Pirates’ better pitching prospects, but the past couple years haven’t gone well. He saw a decline in velocity and production in 2024, and in 2025, he logged just over 10 innings due to a shoulder injury. Given the injury and the limited recent track-record, his risk profile is elevated.

A pitcher who has barely thrown this year doesn’t present the same immediate asset value as a fully healthy arm. The chance another team will invest a 40-man spot in Solometo via Rule 5 is lower, thus reducing the imperative.

A 40-man slot is valuable. If the Pirates judge that Solometo has little chance of being taken (because of the injury) and further that their own timeline for him is at least a year out, they may prefer to use the slot elsewhere.

RHP Wilber Dotel (No. 28)

Wilber Dotel is a right-handed pitching prospect who took a big step forward at Double-A this year. However, consistency remains a concern. Of his 27 starts in 2025, six saw him go at least five innings without allowing an earned run. But he also had seven starts in which he allowed at least four runs.

Dotel posted a 4.15 ERA over 125 innings at Double-A this year. But while the upside is there, his performance has been uneven, and he might not possess the elite tools that other teams would be looking for to justify Rule 5 selection.

If the Pirates believe the chance another club will take Dotel in the Rule 5 is modest (either because performance is uneven or control is a concern), they might accept the risk of exposing him –– especially given the wealth of pitching depth that they already have.