error code: 500
For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Batters
From a pure talent standpoint, the Pittsburgh Pirates are in better shape than their 71-91 record this season might suggest. Still, the organization always feels like it’s on a giant treadmill because when the time to increase the level of investment comes, the push is always extremely underwhelming. The Pirates have actually gotten slightly better at committing to payroll (slightly!), but when they do spend, they frequently do so in rather unproductive ways.
The construction of the offense provides a good example. One area where the team actually has some depth is in viable role players and marginal starters. And yet, when the wallet finally gets pried open (again, slightly!), rather than go after the kind of big score that’s been hard for them to develop themselves, they tend to spread that money around to… viable role players and marginal starters. Spending nearly $17 million on Andrew McCutchen, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Tommy Pham wouldn’t break the bank of a normal team, but when you’re the Pirates, with a pre-benefits payroll under $90 million, that’s a significant chunk of your budget that didn’t do much to make the team better in 2025 or at any point in the future. McCutchen was an amazing player at his best and is still a fan favorite, but he’s already gotten what amounts to a three-year retirement tour in Pittsburgh. If the team can’t think of something more productive to do with those at-bats, that’s a failure of imagination.
Oneil Cruz’s 2025 season was a curious one, in that he did better than he ever has at laying off bad pitches, and absolutely crushed the ball generally, but got objectively worse results. You have to at least wonder if the sudden full-time conversion to the outfield took away some of the attention that might have been better spent focusing on becoming a more well-rounded hitter. I remain far from convinced that there was an emergency that required him to move off of shortstop before Konnor Griffin arrives, or that the swap to Kiner-Falefa did anything of value. ZiPS actually thinks that Cruz will be fine in center field since speed is so important there, but there’s a real split between the 2025 Statcast (+4 runs) and SIS (-14 runs) numbers. I still think there’s a 40-homer hitter hiding somewhere in Cruz, but it’s getting rather late in the day for the Pirates to discover him.
Since the team has good role player depth, they aren’t projected to be truly awful anywhere except designated hitter. With some health, and some creativity mixing and matching the various spare parts at the weaker positions, this could be a halfway adequate lineup. ZiPS is absolutely RAM-over-chipset in love with Griffin, and the quicker he shoves his way through the high minors, the better the Pirates will be. Still, once you get past him and Cruz, it’s a lot of guys who might be fine but aren’t true breakout candidates.
Pitchers
Well having Paul Skenes at the top of the rotation sure is a nice way to start things off! Of course the question is just how long it is before Skenes is shipped off to a team more interested in paying him, and general manager Ben Cherington saying that he “is going to be a Pirate in 2026” is a little worrisome for its specificity. After all, Skenes can’t hit free agency until after the 2029 season, and saying that he’ll be on the team “in 2026” doesn’t preclude a trade deadline mega-deal. There’s really nothing in Skenes’ profile to worry about apart from the normal fretting over possible injury, which is the case for every pitcher past, present or future — at least until we figure out a way to give pitchers ligaments bio-engineered to be stronger. The Hall of Fame comps continue past the first three below; everyone who pitches like Skenes is a Hall of Fame talent.
Mitch Keller is a solid no. 2 starter and Bubba Chandler is projected to build on his 2025 debut; if the Pirates are fortunate with injuries, they’ll be a reasonable complement to Skenes at the top. Elsewhere, more innings from Braxton Ashcraft is a good thing, at least in the ZiPS view, and Jared Jones is ostensibly returning from internal brace surgery on his right elbow fairly early in the season. Guys like Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, and Hunter Barco all get very respectable, if unexciting, projections. Overall, the rotation is a Wild Card-worthy group.
Keeping with the “respectable, if unexciting” theme, we come to the Pittsburgh bullpen. There isn’t a whole lot of crazy upside here, but ZiPS does see the Pirates as having four pitchers with ERAs in the 3.00s in relief: Dennis Santana, Carmen Mlodzinski, Justin Lawrence, and Dauri Moreta. Now, most of these guys project in the high 3.00s, but the relief corps isn’t a disaster. A whole slew of other relief options project better than a 4.50 ERA, and while that’s not a very praiseworthy line to draw, at least the games will end before they get too ugly. If this team does get into a Wild Card situation over the next year or two, they might need to bring in outside bullpen help, but considering how tight their budgets are, it’s understandable that the front office hasn’t done so just yet.
Without any major disasters, the Pirates could creep into the low 80s wins-wise, but I expect a high-70s finish that adds six or seven wins to their 2025 total to be the most likely outcome.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
3YOPS+
RC
Konnor Griffin
591
.261
.328
.398
102
.137
.342
5
3.6
.319
107
80
Oneil Cruz
561
.237
.323
.440
110
.203
.313
-2
2.9
.328
112
78
Spencer Horwitz
521
.274
.359
.421
117
.147
.324
3
2.4
.342
115
70
Nick Gonzales
488
.265
.318
.410
101
.146
.324
4
2.2
.316
100
60
Jared Triolo
443
.248
.330
.366
94
.118
.316
-1
1.9
.308
93
51
Jack Suwinski
468
.229
.328
.425
108
.197
.308
-8
1.7
.327
109
59
Duce Gourson
385
.240
.315
.364
89
.123
.326
3
1.5
.301
91
43
Alika Williams
393
.249
.306
.359
85
.109
.305
7
1.5
.293
83
41
Cam Devanney
460
.229
.295
.371
85
.142
.303
2
1.4
.292
84
47
Rafael Flores
538
.256
.316
.400
98
.144
.348
-12
1.3
.313
101
63
Enmanuel Valdez
386
.242
.317
.399
99
.157
.290
5
1.2
.313
98
44
Joey Bart
332
.238
.331
.362
94
.124
.323
-3
1.1
.311
91
35
Bryan Reynolds
622
.251
.325
.406
103
.154
.318
-4
1.1
.319
101
75
Nick Solak
425
.270
.341
.388
103
.118
.315
1
1.1
.321
99
53
Nick Yorke
533
.253
.306
.358
85
.106
.323
1
1.1
.292
86
58
Termarr Johnson
540
.233
.308
.326
78
.094
.296
4
1.0
.283
84
54
Henry Davis
377
.225
.304
.377
89
.153
.282
-4
1.0
.300
91
40
Omar Alfonzo
481
.218
.294
.320
72
.102
.321
1
0.8
.275
78
41
Alexander Canario
307
.229
.296
.401
93
.172
.315
4
0.8
.304
93
34
Liover Peguero
492
.237
.287
.358
79
.122
.299
-2
0.8
.283
82
50
Jack Brannigan
309
.216
.289
.349
77
.133
.306
1
0.8
.283
79
30
Javier Rivas
490
.225
.264
.341
67
.116
.315
10
0.7
.264
72
43
Esmerlyn Valdez
531
.239
.311
.405
98
.166
.324
-3
0.7
.313
103
61
Anthony Prato
397
.229
.332
.329
86
.100
.301
-5
0.7
.300
85
40
Tsung-Che Cheng
482
.222
.292
.321
71
.098
.301
1
0.6
.273
73
46
Jase Bowen
447
.235
.291
.360
81
.125
.335
-1
0.6
.285
84
47
Keiner Delgado
509
.208
.289
.308
67
.100
.272
4
0.6
.269
73
43
Ronny Simon
471
.254
.317
.365
90
.111
.307
0
0.5
.301
92
55
Endy Rodríguez
401
.240
.307
.384
92
.144
.292
2
0.5
.302
93
44
Andrew McCutchen
452
.232
.327
.360
92
.128
.290
0
0.4
.305
87
48
Billy Cook
451
.230
.292
.363
82
.132
.311
-4
0.4
.287
85
47
Brett Sullivan
346
.225
.277
.342
72
.117
.261
-2
0.3
.271
69
31
Matt Fraizer
364
.237
.287
.341
75
.104
.315
5
0.2
.276
76
36
Sammy Stafura
556
.188
.270
.294
58
.106
.273
4
0.2
.253
64
43
Mitch Jebb
494
.248
.309
.297
71
.050
.289
-2
0.2
.272
72
45
Kervin Pichardo
394
.207
.269
.314
62
.106
.299
5
0.1
.259
67
32
Shawn Ross
289
.163
.250
.284
49
.121
.292
5
0.1
.242
53
19
Tommy Pham
412
.240
.313
.357
87
.117
.302
-2
0.1
.296
82
43
Malcom Nuñez
386
.237
.293
.340
76
.103
.293
-2
0.0
.279
80
35
Derek Berg
337
.178
.263
.282
52
.104
.312
3
0.0
.247
55
24
Nelson Velázquez
401
.219
.292
.377
85
.158
.276
0
0.0
.292
87
42
Axiel Plaz
299
.195
.258
.327
62
.132
.243
-1
0.0
.258
68
23
Wyatt Hendrie
220
.193
.278
.266
53
.073
.282
0
-0.1
.250
58
15
Geovanny Planchart
235
.191
.272
.254
48
.062
.262
1
-0.1
.241
54
14
Will Robertson
426
.218
.286
.387
86
.169
.292
-2
-0.2
.293
87
44
Abrahan Gutierrez
221
.221
.276
.289
58
.069
.287
-1
-0.2
.254
62
17
Sammy Siani
439
.219
.282
.312
66
.093
.298
7
-0.2
.264
70
39
P.J. Hilson
326
.227
.269
.349
71
.122
.302
-3
-0.2
.270
72
31
Tres Gonzalez
395
.234
.306
.279
65
.046
.309
5
-0.3
.267
70
33
Imanol Vargas
408
.220
.299
.341
78
.121
.341
-2
-0.3
.284
79
37
Darick Hall
377
.215
.279
.340
72
.125
.276
4
-0.3
.272
72
33
DJ Stewart
292
.190
.295
.324
73
.134
.253
0
-0.3
.280
68
25
Will Taylor
394
.208
.286
.336
73
.128
.300
-4
-0.4
.277
78
39
Aaron McKeithan
209
.220
.300
.280
64
.060
.270
-5
-0.4
.265
67
16
Callan Moss
521
.227
.301
.343
80
.116
.303
-1
-0.5
.286
86
52
Nick Cimillo
430
.212
.275
.385
82
.173
.262
-2
-0.5
.287
85
43
Maikol Escotto
310
.208
.250
.304
54
.097
.284
-2
-0.7
.245
56
25
Lonnie White Jr.
349
.192
.270
.307
61
.115
.315
-5
-0.8
.258
69
29
Enmanuel Terrero
244
.200
.255
.291
52
.091
.310
1
-0.8
.243
56
19
Hudson Head
310
.187
.249
.282
48
.095
.299
5
-0.8
.238
53
22
Mike Jarvis
310
.190
.241
.278
45
.088
.263
5
-0.9
.231
46
23
Ivan Brethowr
411
.187
.299
.272
61
.085
.282
-3
-0.9
.265
65
32
Kalae Harrison
178
.170
.220
.218
23
.048
.243
-1
-1.1
.200
25
9
Brenden Dixon
257
.182
.258
.277
50
.095
.279
-1
-1.1
.242
55
18
Jesus Castillo
401
.199
.266
.235
42
.036
.274
8
-1.4
.231
45
27
Titus Dumitru
453
.201
.258
.301
56
.100
.280
1
-1.5
.248
61
36
Shalin Polanco
396
.188
.243
.304
52
.116
.264
2
-1.5
.240
59
30
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Konnor Griffin
.291
.353
.459
124
5.3
.232
.299
.344
80
2.0
Oneil Cruz
.264
.348
.501
134
4.4
.213
.294
.388
91
1.4
Spencer Horwitz
.298
.384
.471
136
3.6
.246
.329
.378
99
1.3
Nick Gonzales
.294
.346
.454
122
3.4
.238
.291
.358
83
1.1
Jared Triolo
.275
.356
.414
113
2.9
.221
.300
.321
75
0.7
Jack Suwinski
.252
.351
.482
126
2.7
.202
.302
.373
89
0.5
Duce Gourson
.268
.341
.415
109
2.5
.217
.293
.327
73
0.8
Alika Williams
.279
.334
.404
104
2.4
.223
.279
.320
66
0.5
Cam Devanney
.257
.320
.413
100
2.3
.204
.272
.328
68
0.4
Rafael Flores
.285
.343
.449
118
2.6
.222
.287
.354
78
-0.1
Enmanuel Valdez
.270
.340
.448
117
2.1
.216
.291
.351
80
0.3
Joey Bart
.266
.358
.409
111
1.8
.209
.304
.313
73
0.3
Bryan Reynolds
.275
.349
.450
120
2.5
.223
.298
.355
84
-0.2
Nick Solak
.304
.369
.441
124
2.2
.237
.310
.341
83
0.0
Nick Yorke
.275
.330
.402
101
2.3
.223
.279
.322
67
-0.1
Termarr Johnson
.261
.335
.372
97
2.2
.210
.286
.291
62
0.0
Henry Davis
.254
.332
.432
109
1.9
.198
.274
.326
68
0.0
Omar Alfonzo
.250
.326
.369
93
2.1
.187
.263
.275
51
-0.4
Alexander Canario
.255
.324
.453
112
1.5
.200
.267
.347
69
-0.1
Liover Peguero
.261
.312
.400
95
1.8
.209
.261
.319
61
-0.3
Jack Brannigan
.245
.316
.405
99
1.6
.188
.265
.297
58
0.1
Javier Rivas
.251
.287
.386
87
1.9
.204
.240
.301
53
-0.2
Esmerlyn Valdez
.264
.336
.452
117
1.9
.213
.285
.357
79
-0.6
Anthony Prato
.259
.359
.374
106
1.5
.203
.304
.286
67
-0.3
Tsung-Che Cheng
.250
.320
.365
90
1.7
.195
.268
.282
56
-0.4
Jase Bowen
.259
.316
.406
98
1.6
.208
.264
.325
63
-0.4
Keiner Delgado
.240
.320
.355
88
1.9
.180
.266
.271
50
-0.5
Ronny Simon
.283
.341
.411
109
1.7
.228
.291
.323
73
-0.5
Endy Rodríguez
.266
.331
.431
110
1.4
.214
.278
.341
72
-0.5
Andrew McCutchen
.264
.355
.408
110
1.5
.207
.299
.319
75
-0.7
Billy Cook
.260
.320
.405
101
1.4
.205
.266
.319
63
-0.8
Brett Sullivan
.254
.309
.398
94
1.2
.192
.247
.294
50
-0.7
Matt Fraizer
.263
.314
.383
92
1.1
.207
.257
.298
55
-0.6
Sammy Stafura
.216
.301
.350
81
1.7
.162
.243
.252
39
-1.1
Mitch Jebb
.279
.339
.337
90
1.4
.219
.282
.262
54
-0.9
Kervin Pichardo
.238
.296
.365
81
1.1
.181
.244
.272
45
-0.8
Shawn Ross
.194
.278
.340
70
0.9
.137
.217
.233
28
-0.7
Tommy Pham
.269
.341
.399
105
1.0
.210
.285
.308
66
-0.9
Malcom Nuñez
.266
.320
.381
94
0.9
.207
.265
.297
58
-0.8
Derek Berg
.208
.293
.339
76
0.9
.146
.236
.234
34
-0.8
Nelson Velázquez
.247
.319
.433
106
1.0
.192
.263
.325
63
-1.2
Axiel Plaz
.223
.286
.386
83
0.7
.169
.228
.287
45
-0.7
Wyatt Hendrie
.222
.312
.316
76
0.5
.160
.245
.222
31
-0.8
Geovanny Planchart
.222
.306
.298
69
0.5
.163
.245
.216
31
-0.7
Will Robertson
.247
.315
.437
107
1.0
.192
.258
.333
65
-1.3
Abrahan Gutierrez
.252
.308
.328
78
0.3
.185
.245
.241
38
-0.8
Sammy Siani
.247
.311
.352
83
0.7
.194
.255
.276
49
-1.2
P.J. Hilson
.257
.298
.405
93
0.7
.202
.244
.307
53
-1.0
Tres Gonzalez
.261
.333
.314
81
0.5
.203
.278
.247
48
-1.2
Imanol Vargas
.249
.328
.391
98
0.7
.188
.268
.296
57
-1.4
Darick Hall
.242
.309
.395
93
0.6
.188
.252
.292
53
-1.2
DJ Stewart
.217
.321
.376
93
0.4
.165
.265
.274
52
-1.1
Will Taylor
.233
.313
.377
91
0.5
.180
.259
.290
54
-1.3
Aaron McKeithan
.256
.333
.324
82
0.1
.190
.270
.244
46
-0.9
Callan Moss
.257
.326
.387
98
0.7
.197
.269
.293
58
-1.9
Nick Cimillo
.236
.299
.428
99
0.4
.184
.250
.334
61
-1.7
Maikol Escotto
.232
.275
.351
71
0.1
.178
.223
.262
35
-1.4
Lonnie White Jr.
.219
.296
.351
78
0.1
.163
.244
.263
41
-1.7
Enmanuel Terrero
.230
.293
.345
75
0.0
.171
.227
.252
35
-1.3
Hudson Head
.219
.280
.325
68
0.0
.161
.222
.238
30
-1.5
Mike Jarvis
.216
.266
.318
61
-0.2
.167
.215
.247
28
-1.5
Ivan Brethowr
.215
.326
.318
80
-0.1
.161
.274
.240
46
-1.8
Kalae Harrison
.196
.246
.255
37
-0.8
.145
.196
.183
6
-1.5
Brenden Dixon
.210
.287
.319
69
-0.5
.156
.228
.236
33
-1.7
Jesus Castillo
.230
.293
.267
57
-0.7
.176
.240
.207
28
-2.2
Titus Dumitru
.229
.284
.342
74
-0.5
.178
.234
.262
40
-2.4
Shalin Polanco
.215
.268
.345
69
-0.7
.161
.215
.256
32
-2.5
Batters – Platoon Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Konnor Griffin
.269
.341
.425
.258
.322
.387
Oneil Cruz
.225
.306
.397
.243
.330
.459
Spencer Horwitz
.257
.335
.378
.282
.370
.442
Nick Gonzales
.276
.331
.455
.259
.311
.389
Jared Triolo
.252
.340
.381
.246
.325
.357
Jack Suwinski
.218
.310
.379
.234
.335
.446
Duce Gourson
.226
.305
.312
.246
.319
.383
Alika Williams
.250
.305
.358
.249
.306
.359
Cam Devanney
.238
.304
.385
.224
.290
.364
Rafael Flores
.250
.312
.398
.258
.317
.401
Enmanuel Valdez
.228
.299
.360
.249
.326
.419
Joey Bart
.250
.345
.385
.232
.324
.351
Bryan Reynolds
.256
.324
.415
.249
.325
.402
Nick Solak
.286
.359
.405
.263
.332
.380
Nick Yorke
.245
.302
.348
.256
.308
.363
Termarr Johnson
.230
.299
.311
.234
.311
.331
Henry Davis
.231
.317
.398
.221
.298
.367
Omar Alfonzo
.209
.283
.296
.222
.298
.329
Alexander Canario
.229
.306
.413
.229
.290
.394
Liover Peguero
.240
.293
.364
.235
.283
.356
Jack Brannigan
.218
.291
.372
.215
.288
.340
Javier Rivas
.217
.259
.341
.229
.266
.342
Esmerlyn Valdez
.245
.316
.424
.237
.309
.396
Anthony Prato
.241
.341
.336
.223
.327
.326
Tsung-Che Cheng
.220
.281
.309
.224
.296
.326
Jase Bowen
.248
.307
.384
.230
.283
.350
Keiner Delgado
.202
.286
.286
.210
.290
.315
Ronny Simon
.252
.312
.357
.254
.319
.369
Endy Rodríguez
.246
.306
.396
.237
.307
.377
Andrew McCutchen
.245
.345
.382
.228
.321
.352
Billy Cook
.231
.299
.362
.230
.289
.363
Brett Sullivan
.210
.261
.305
.232
.286
.360
Matt Fraizer
.229
.282
.321
.241
.290
.351
Sammy Stafura
.182
.266
.277
.190
.271
.300
Mitch Jebb
.237
.296
.281
.252
.313
.303
Kervin Pichardo
.209
.279
.318
.206
.265
.312
Shawn Ross
.167
.259
.292
.162
.246
.281
Tommy Pham
.240
.322
.375
.240
.310
.350
Malcom Nuñez
.246
.302
.349
.232
.287
.335
Derek Berg
.185
.269
.304
.175
.260
.272
Nelson Velázquez
.223
.301
.397
.217
.287
.367
Axiel Plaz
.200
.261
.363
.193
.256
.313
Wyatt Hendrie
.197
.279
.279
.191
.277
.260
Geovanny Planchart
.188
.269
.232
.193
.274
.264
Will Robertson
.217
.282
.368
.219
.288
.394
Abrahan Gutierrez
.233
.291
.315
.214
.268
.275
Sammy Siani
.204
.265
.291
.224
.288
.319
P.J. Hilson
.223
.267
.351
.229
.269
.348
Tres Gonzalez
.224
.298
.247
.237
.308
.289
Imanol Vargas
.200
.280
.305
.228
.307
.355
Darick Hall
.200
.258
.318
.222
.288
.350
DJ Stewart
.177
.282
.306
.194
.299
.330
Will Taylor
.219
.297
.362
.203
.281
.325
Aaron McKeithan
.222
.306
.302
.218
.296
.269
Callan Moss
.232
.314
.362
.226
.296
.335
Nick Cimillo
.217
.283
.400
.209
.272
.379
Maikol Escotto
.211
.258
.311
.206
.246
.302
Lonnie White Jr.
.196
.275
.304
.190
.268
.308
Enmanuel Terrero
.194
.250
.290
.203
.257
.291
Hudson Head
.180
.240
.270
.190
.254
.287
Mike Jarvis
.194
.248
.280
.188
.238
.277
Ivan Brethowr
.192
.306
.298
.185
.297
.261
Kalae Harrison
.159
.196
.182
.174
.229
.231
Brenden Dixon
.183
.266
.268
.181
.254
.281
Jesus Castillo
.207
.270
.234
.195
.264
.235
Titus Dumitru
.200
.263
.312
.201
.256
.297
Shalin Polanco
.177
.231
.292
.192
.247
.308
Pitchers – Standard
Player
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Paul Skenes
R
24
13
6
2.76
32
32
179.7
143
55
16
46
204
Mitch Keller
R
30
9
10
4.02
29
29
161.0
157
72
19
48
140
Bubba Chandler
R
23
8
7
3.89
29
27
129.7
118
56
14
49
122
Braxton Ashcraft
R
26
6
6
3.61
31
16
107.3
103
43
11
30
98
Carmen Mlodzinski
R
27
7
7
3.59
39
13
102.7
97
41
9
34
89
Mike Burrows
R
26
4
4
3.92
28
23
110.3
102
48
14
37
104
Jared Jones
R
24
5
6
4.05
19
19
97.7
92
44
11
36
88
Johan Oviedo
R
28
5
6
4.10
22
20
96.7
87
44
12
40
94
Hunter Barco
L
25
3
3
4.23
26
21
87.3
83
41
11
36
82
Antwone Kelly
R
22
3
4
4.39
25
25
98.3
102
48
13
38
76
Thomas Harrington
R
24
6
8
4.54
23
21
103.0
107
52
14
32
79
Wilber Dotel
R
23
6
9
4.61
25
25
111.3
114
57
15
42
86
Dennis Santana
R
30
5
3
3.41
63
0
63.3
54
24
5
20
58
Sean Sullivan
R
25
4
5
4.46
26
12
76.7
80
38
10
28
56
Drake Fellows
R
28
5
7
4.57
28
16
90.7
97
46
11
36
61
Garrett McMillan
R
25
3
3
4.10
19
8
52.7
56
24
7
14
38
Nick Dombkowski
L
27
4
5
4.52
31
11
77.7
82
39
10
27
55
Po-Yu Chen
R
24
6
8
4.89
26
23
106.7
115
58
14
42
71
Kyle Nicolas
R
27
3
4
4.14
51
5
74.0
68
34
8
37
72
Blake Townsend
L
25
4
6
4.65
32
9
71.7
73
37
9
24
51
Derek Diamond
R
25
4
6
4.76
18
13
70.0
81
37
10
20
40
Alessandro Ercolani
R
22
3
6
4.96
24
18
90.7
98
50
12
36
55
Dauri Moreta
R
30
3
3
3.81
51
1
52.0
43
22
6
23
58
Isaac Mattson
R
30
4
4
4.07
51
1
59.7
53
27
7
28
57
Anthony Solometo
L
23
4
6
4.85
25
22
72.3
74
39
8
36
47
Justin Lawrence
R
31
3
4
3.96
46
0
50.0
43
22
4
25
52
Dominic Perachi
L
25
3
4
4.89
18
14
70.0
76
38
10
30
47
Evan Sisk
L
29
2
3
4.02
53
0
53.7
49
24
5
24
53
Chase Shugart
R
29
4
4
4.33
42
3
60.3
60
29
7
23
46
Justin Meis
R
26
3
5
4.57
35
5
65.0
67
33
9
28
52
Dugan Darnell
R
29
3
3
4.17
40
1
54.0
52
25
6
23
49
Tyler Samaniego
L
27
3
2
3.93
31
1
36.7
36
16
4
14
31
Colin Holderman
R
30
2
3
4.21
44
1
47.0
45
22
5
20
42
Michael Darrell-Hicks
R
28
3
4
4.63
33
4
58.3
60
30
7
20
46
Yohan Ramírez
R
31
3
4
4.37
46
0
57.7
51
28
6
25
61
Emmanuel Chapman
R
27
3
5
4.82
30
5
65.3
66
35
8
33
51
Brandan Bidois
R
25
3
4
4.31
37
0
48.0
44
23
6
24
46
Randy Labaut
L
29
3
4
4.57
28
2
45.3
46
23
6
24
36
Ryder Ryan
R
31
3
4
4.53
39
2
57.7
61
29
7
25
42
Valentin Linarez
R
26
3
5
4.79
35
4
56.3
57
30
8
28
45
Eddy Yean
R
25
4
7
4.71
46
3
63.0
67
33
7
30
42
Cy Nielson
L
25
2
4
4.85
37
2
52.0
51
28
6
26
45
Burch Smith
R
36
1
2
4.66
27
0
29.0
32
15
4
13
24
Cam Sanders
R
29
2
4
4.83
41
2
54.0
50
29
6
34
52
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith
R
29
1
2
4.89
23
1
35.0
39
19
5
14
23
J.C. Flowers
R
28
1
3
5.19
25
2
43.3
46
25
5
26
29
Ryan Harbin
R
24
3
3
4.80
43
1
54.3
51
29
7
35
54
Jaden Woods
L
24
3
6
4.88
39
0
59.0
60
32
8
28
49
Landon Tomkins
R
26
3
6
5.06
42
0
48.0
51
27
6
22
32
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
3ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Paul Skenes
179.7
10.2
2.3
0.8
6.4%
28.4%
.282
152
150
2.90
66
5.0
Mitch Keller
161.0
7.8
2.7
1.1
7.1%
20.6%
.294
104
103
4.06
96
2.3
Bubba Chandler
129.7
8.5
3.4
1.0
8.9%
22.2%
.287
108
110
4.07
93
2.1
Braxton Ashcraft
107.3
8.2
2.5
0.9
6.7%
21.8%
.299
116
117
3.65
86
1.9
Carmen Mlodzinski
102.7
7.8
3.0
0.8
7.8%
20.4%
.293
116
117
3.68
86
1.8
Mike Burrows
110.3
8.5
3.0
1.1
8.0%
22.4%
.287
107
109
4.04
94
1.7
Jared Jones
97.7
8.1
3.3
1.0
8.6%
21.1%
.290
103
107
4.12
97
1.4
Johan Oviedo
96.7
8.8
3.7
1.1
9.6%
22.7%
.284
102
104
4.29
98
1.4
Hunter Barco
87.3
8.5
3.7
1.1
9.5%
21.6%
.293
99
102
4.43
101
1.1
Antwone Kelly
98.3
7.0
3.5
1.2
8.8%
17.6%
.296
95
101
4.56
105
1.0
Thomas Harrington
103.0
6.9
2.8
1.2
7.2%
17.8%
.295
92
97
4.47
109
1.0
Wilber Dotel
111.3
7.0
3.4
1.2
8.6%
17.7%
.292
91
96
4.69
110
0.9
Dennis Santana
63.3
8.2
2.8
0.7
7.6%
22.1%
.277
123
118
3.45
82
0.9
Sean Sullivan
76.7
6.6
3.3
1.2
8.4%
16.7%
.294
94
99
4.61
107
0.7
Drake Fellows
90.7
6.1
3.6
1.1
9.0%
15.2%
.297
92
93
4.72
109
0.7
Garrett McMillan
52.7
6.5
2.4
1.2
6.2%
16.8%
.297
102
107
4.30
98
0.6
Nick Dombkowski
77.7
6.4
3.1
1.2
8.0%
16.2%
.295
92
95
4.54
108
0.6
Po-Yu Chen
106.7
6.0
3.5
1.2
8.9%
15.0%
.295
85
90
4.97
117
0.6
Kyle Nicolas
74.0
8.8
4.5
1.0
11.3%
22.0%
.293
101
104
4.33
99
0.6
Blake Townsend
71.7
6.4
3.0
1.1
7.8%
16.5%
.288
90
94
4.80
111
0.4
Derek Diamond
70.0
5.1
2.6
1.3
6.5%
13.0%
.302
88
91
4.82
114
0.4
Alessandro Ercolani
90.7
5.5
3.6
1.2
9.0%
13.7%
.291
84
90
5.06
119
0.4
Dauri Moreta
52.0
10.0
4.0
1.0
10.4%
26.2%
.280
110
107
3.93
91
0.4
Isaac Mattson
59.7
8.6
4.2
1.1
10.9%
22.1%
.280
103
102
4.34
97
0.4
Anthony Solometo
72.3
5.8
4.5
1.0
11.2%
14.6%
.287
86
91
5.17
116
0.4
Justin Lawrence
50.0
9.4
4.5
0.7
11.5%
23.9%
.291
106
103
3.98
95
0.4
Dominic Perachi
70.0
6.0
3.9
1.3
9.6%
15.0%
.296
86
90
5.22
117
0.3
Evan Sisk
53.7
8.9
4.0
0.8
10.3%
22.6%
.297
104
105
3.96
96
0.3
Chase Shugart
60.3
6.9
3.4
1.0
8.7%
17.5%
.290
97
98
4.44
104
0.3
Justin Meis
65.0
7.2
3.9
1.2
9.7%
18.1%
.296
91
96
4.75
109
0.3
Dugan Darnell
54.0
8.2
3.8
1.0
9.7%
20.8%
.297
100
101
4.13
100
0.3
Tyler Samaniego
36.7
7.6
3.4
1.0
8.9%
19.6%
.296
106
106
4.20
94
0.2
Colin Holderman
47.0
8.0
3.8
1.0
9.7%
20.4%
.294
99
99
4.29
101
0.2
Michael Darrell-Hicks
58.3
7.1
3.1
1.1
7.8%
18.0%
.298
90
93
4.48
111
0.2
Yohan Ramírez
57.7
9.5
3.9
0.9
9.9%
24.2%
.294
96
94
4.33
105
0.1
Emmanuel Chapman
65.3
7.0
4.5
1.1
11.2%
17.3%
.293
87
88
4.94
115
0.1
Brandan Bidois
48.0
8.6
4.5
1.1
11.2%
21.5%
.286
97
102
4.50
103
0.1
Randy Labaut
45.3
7.1
4.8
1.2
11.5%
17.3%
.292
92
90
4.95
109
0.1
Ryder Ryan
57.7
6.6
3.9
1.1
9.7%
16.2%
.298
92
90
4.79
108
0.1
Valentin Linarez
56.3
7.2
4.5
1.3
11.0%
17.7%
.290
87
90
5.17
115
0.0
Eddy Yean
63.0
6.0
4.3
1.0
10.5%
14.7%
.297
89
92
4.89
113
0.0
Cy Nielson
52.0
7.8
4.5
1.0
11.1%
19.2%
.296
86
90
4.95
116
-0.1
Burch Smith
29.0
7.4
4.0
1.2
9.9%
18.3%
.315
90
80
4.75
111
-0.1
Cam Sanders
54.0
8.7
5.7
1.0
13.8%
21.1%
.293
86
87
4.85
116
-0.1
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith
35.0
5.9
3.6
1.3
8.9%
14.6%
.301
86
86
5.08
117
-0.1
J.C. Flowers
43.3
6.0
5.4
1.0
12.7%
14.2%
.295
80
83
5.33
124
-0.2
Ryan Harbin
54.3
8.9
5.8
1.2
13.9%
21.4%
.295
87
92
5.06
115
-0.2
Jaden Woods
59.0
7.5
4.3
1.2
10.6%
18.6%
.295
86
91
5.04
117
-0.2
Landon Tomkins
48.0
6.0
4.1
1.1
10.2%
14.8%
.294
83
85
5.27
121
-0.4
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Paul Skenes
.219
.283
.354
.209
.253
.311
6.2
3.8
2.20
3.26
Mitch Keller
.260
.326
.415
.239
.298
.384
3.2
1.3
3.58
4.60
Bubba Chandler
.248
.330
.407
.227
.305
.351
2.8
1.0
3.42
4.54
Braxton Ashcraft
.235
.304
.372
.253
.298
.387
2.7
1.2
3.06
4.18
Carmen Mlodzinski
.234
.295
.375
.251
.317
.362
2.3
0.9
3.12
4.28
Mike Burrows
.229
.300
.403
.251
.310
.390
2.4
1.0
3.40
4.39
Jared Jones
.236
.320
.368
.251
.316
.409
2.2
0.8
3.45
4.66
Johan Oviedo
.238
.332
.392
.235
.310
.390
2.0
0.5
3.54
4.81
Hunter Barco
.243
.336
.369
.245
.324
.419
1.7
0.4
3.69
4.87
Antwone Kelly
.260
.337
.452
.259
.316
.398
1.6
0.4
3.94
4.94
Thomas Harrington
.268
.330
.439
.256
.312
.417
1.6
0.3
4.02
5.13
Wilber Dotel
.271
.346
.443
.245
.313
.399
1.4
0.3
4.24
5.05
Dennis Santana
.227
.303
.351
.232
.291
.348
1.4
0.3
2.84
4.26
Sean Sullivan
.262
.335
.423
.263
.322
.429
1.1
0.2
4.00
4.98
Drake Fellows
.287
.360
.475
.245
.312
.370
1.2
0.1
4.10
5.06
Garrett McMillan
.262
.313
.417
.264
.305
.427
1.0
0.2
3.49
4.81
Nick Dombkowski
.260
.322
.423
.266
.325
.430
1.0
0.1
4.03
5.12
Po-Yu Chen
.271
.344
.432
.266
.344
.432
1.1
0.0
4.47
5.38
Kyle Nicolas
.228
.340
.386
.247
.330
.373
1.1
0.0
3.63
4.82
Blake Townsend
.247
.333
.461
.264
.338
.404
0.9
-0.1
4.15
5.25
Derek Diamond
.277
.345
.469
.285
.317
.449
0.8
0.0
4.29
5.29
Alessandro Ercolani
.271
.346
.447
.271
.343
.427
0.8
-0.1
4.56
5.48
Dauri Moreta
.225
.324
.393
.219
.303
.352
0.9
-0.2
3.10
4.80
Isaac Mattson
.240
.333
.375
.233
.320
.395
0.9
-0.3
3.45
5.09
Anthony Solometo
.244
.340
.372
.266
.366
.427
0.8
-0.1
4.42
5.38
Justin Lawrence
.241
.359
.391
.218
.316
.317
0.9
-0.2
3.18
4.84
Dominic Perachi
.235
.323
.395
.285
.363
.470
0.7
-0.1
4.48
5.43
Evan Sisk
.203
.289
.329
.256
.345
.388
0.8
-0.2
3.27
4.86
Chase Shugart
.257
.331
.390
.254
.324
.415
0.7
-0.1
3.84
4.98
Justin Meis
.250
.341
.442
.266
.327
.410
0.7
-0.1
4.06
5.15
Dugan Darnell
.253
.327
.411
.241
.315
.371
0.7
-0.1
3.53
4.92
Tyler Samaniego
.234
.308
.319
.260
.333
.438
0.5
0.0
3.41
4.54
Colin Holderman
.250
.348
.413
.245
.322
.373
0.7
-0.2
3.58
5.01
Michael Darrell-Hicks
.252
.333
.417
.264
.329
.403
0.6
-0.2
3.94
5.25
Yohan Ramírez
.258
.368
.438
.215
.322
.323
0.6
-0.4
3.65
5.27
Emmanuel Chapman
.233
.338
.380
.279
.361
.442
0.5
-0.4
4.28
5.49
Brandan Bidois
.244
.343
.407
.232
.319
.384
0.5
-0.3
3.67
4.97
Randy Labaut
.254
.343
.356
.261
.350
.454
0.4
-0.3
4.02
5.29
Ryder Ryan
.293
.383
.475
.244
.315
.374
0.4
-0.3
4.01
5.22
Valentin Linarez
.273
.376
.455
.244
.329
.407
0.3
-0.4
4.35
5.44
Eddy Yean
.277
.360
.429
.254
.340
.396
0.3
-0.4
4.32
5.25
Cy Nielson
.229
.353
.314
.261
.359
.448
0.3
-0.5
4.28
5.59
Burch Smith
.283
.356
.491
.258
.333
.409
0.1
-0.4
3.77
5.60
Cam Sanders
.264
.382
.440
.220
.336
.339
0.4
-0.6
4.11
5.68
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith
.288
.365
.439
.263
.329
.461
0.1
-0.4
4.28
5.65
J.C. Flowers
.272
.379
.407
.261
.361
.435
0.2
-0.5
4.55
5.97
Ryan Harbin
.253
.375
.424
.232
.346
.375
0.2
-0.7
4.24
5.65
Jaden Woods
.238
.347
.313
.266
.352
.474
0.1
-0.8
4.31
5.60
Landon Tomkins
.273
.375
.455
.260
.345
.404
-0.1
-0.7
4.61
5.68
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.