This year, however, was not a normal year.

Based on the protection results, teams whiffed on 2021 and 2022 first-round picks much more than normal, as only 17 of 27 first-time-eligible first-rounders were added to 40-man rosters.

That 63% protection rate is the worst of the past decade, far worse than the 73% rate in 2018 that had previously ranked as the worst.

Each year, the 40-man roster protection deadline forces teams to put their cards on the table, and that is especially true when it comes to first-round picks. If a team decides not to protect a first-rounder in the player’s first year of Rule 5 eligibility, it’s a clear sign of a missed pick. If a pick has potential, he’ll be added to the 40-man roster, even if there are extenuating circumstances. For example, the Guardians added righthander Daniel Espino to their 40-man roster after the 2023 season, even though he hadn’t pitched in 18 months at that point and was still another 16 months away from returning to the mound.

Across baseball the past decade, 79.6% of first-round picks were protected in their first year of Rule 5 eligibility. Most have actually reached the majors by the time they become Rule 5-eligible, sometimes because teams will call them up late in the preceding season, knowing they are set to be added to the 40-man anyway.

But that means on one out of every five picks, a team whiffs. Last year, five out of 27 picks were unprotected. The year before, only three of 28 picks were unprotected.

This year, however, there were four players selected in the top 10 alone who went unprotected. That’s an especially surprising number, as only seven top 10 picks had been left available in the previous nine years combined. And one of those (Kyler Murray) was left unprotected because he was playing quarterback in the NFL.

The Royals left a pair of top 10 picks, LHP Frank Mozzicato and OF Gavin Cross, unprotected this year, marking the first time a team has done that in the past decade. Kansas City is also the only team with three unprotected top 10 picks over the past decade. Lefthander Asa Lacy, the No. 3 pick in the 2020 draft, was also unprotected in his first year of Rule 5 eligibility.

The Marlins left infielder Jacob Berry, the sixth pick in the 2022 draft, unprotected, while the Rockies did not protect outfielder Benny Montgomery, the eighth pick in the 2021 draft. The Marlins (Berry and RHP Tyler Kolek), Rockies (Montgomery and RHP Riley Pint) and A’s (Murray and OF Austin Beck) are the other teams who left multiple top 10 picks unprotected in the past decade.

On the other hand, six teams have had a perfect score. The Padres, White Sox, Pirates, Braves, Mariners and Astros have not had an unprotected first-round pick in the past decade. The Padres and White Sox both did so with 11 picks apiece:

TEAMProtected
First-Round
PICKSTotal
First-ROUND
PICKSPCTPadres1111100%White Sox1111100%Pirates1010100%Braves99100%Mariners99100%Astros88100%Diamondbacks8989%Mets8989%Nationals8989%Orioles8989%Phillies8989%Red Sox8989%Brewers91182%Cubs91182%Rays91182%Angels7978%Tigers7978%Cardinals91275%Marlins91275%Reds91275%Rockies81173%Twins81173%Guardians71070%Rangers91369%Blue Jays81267%Dodgers6967%Yankees71164%Giants61060%Athletics61155%Royals61155%

Traditionally, college draftees have a better chance of making 40-man rosters than prep picks. Over the past decade, 86% (156 of 182) four-year college first-rounders were 40-man additions, compared to 73% (107 of 146) of high school first-rounders.

But this year, those numbers flipped. Only 53% of college first-rounders were added while 75% of the prep first-rounders are on 40-man rosters:

DraftPick
NumberTeamPlayerPosSource20217RoyalsFrank MozzicatoLHPHS20218RockiesBenny MontgomeryOFHS202129DodgersMaddux BrunsLHPHS202130RedsJay AllenOFHS20226MarlinsJacob Berry3B4YR20229RoyalsGavin CrossOF4YR202211MetsKevin ParadaC4YR202219AthleticsDaniel SusacC4YR202227BrewersEric BrownSS4YR202230GiantsReggie CrawfordLHP4YR

For the first-round picks left unprotected, the odds are stacked heavily against them having successful MLB careers. Of 63 first-rounders not added to 40-man rosters over the years, the overwhelming majority never reach the majors, and those who do generally have very modest careers.

But there is one name to dream on.

The Rangers left Cole Ragans unprotected for the 2020 Rule 5 draft. At that time, he hadn’t pitched since 2017 because of injuries. Ragans returned to action in 2021 and made the majors in 2022. By 2024, he was the ace of the Royals staff, going 11-9, 3.14 for a 5.0 bWAR season.