DETROIT — The Detroit Tigers have decisions to make this winter, but none more consequential than the question of Tarik Skubal’s future.
Skubal was crowned the 2025 American League Cy Young Award winner last week, becoming the first pitcher to repeat since Jacob deGrom in 2018 and 2019 and the first in the American League since Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000. He turns 29 on Thursday and is coming off a season in which he went 13-6 with an AL-best 2.21 ERA, struck out a career-high 241 in 195 1/3 innings and then stacked three dominant playoff starts on top of it.
Since returning from flexor tendon surgery in 2023, Skubal has evolved into one of the most dominant pitchers of the modern era. Over 77 starts he is 38-13 with a 2.39 ERA and 571 strikeouts in 467 innings.
Two years ago, an extension with the Tigers seemed reasonable. One year ago, it seemed unlikely but not impossible. Now the chances are essentially zero. Skubal, so close to a big free-agency payday, has little reason not to wait. The Tigers, unlikely to receive any discount at this point, seem better off letting things play out.
The Tigers have been resolute in avoiding even the slightest hint of public comment about Skubal’s future.
“I’ve learned that general comments on this topic tend to get chopped up and forced into narratives,” Tigers president Scott Harris said. “I can’t comment on our players being traded, on free agents, or on other teams’ players. Tarik’s a Tiger. He’s an incredible pitcher, and we’re lucky to have him. That’s all I can say on that.”
Skubal’s agent, Scott Boras, alluded to limited conversations with the Tigers when he met with reporters this month, but didn’t offer specifics.
“We talk a lot through the course of the offseason, and we’ll continue to discuss,” Boras said. “Our point of view is we always listen. We’re prepared to listen to anything that Chris (Ilitch) or Scott (Harris) has to say. So we’ll just see how it goes.
“All we know is that the fans in Detroit want the Tigers to build a Tarik Barrack.”
With no such barrack immediately forthcoming, that naturally leads to the question that has dominated the winter and will continue to do so: a Skubal trade.
The answer remains unlikely to very unlikely. It would require a package so lopsided it almost defies precedent. It would have to be the best offer ever made for a player with one year of team control. Plenty of speculative proposals are perfectly fair on paper, yet none come close to moving the needle for Detroit.
The Tigers are not perfect, but they do not have any glaring deficit large enough to justify losing the ace of the franchise. It is virtually impossible to trade Skubal and come out as good or better in 2026. Almost by definition, you become worse, perhaps much worse, and the lottery tickets for 2027 or 2028 offer little consolation.
The Tigers have made the playoffs in back-to-back years and expect to return in 2026. If they were rebuilding, matching with a trade partner would be simple. Instead, they need immediate impact and most of the prospects that would normally headline a deal for an ace hold far less value for a win-now club.
Look at the trade boards on BaseballTradeValues. Many proposals are reasonable and plausible, yet none meaningfully change the equation. In a normal scenario, a young third baseman like Chicago’s Matt Shaw might be enough to get a deal done. For Skubal, he is merely a conversation starter at best.
If there is any path to a deal, it likely involves a massive overpay from a single big-market team or a chaotic three-team arrangement. Maybe the Tigers send Skubal to a Mets or Yankees or Dodgers-type team, that team ships a pile of premium prospects to a third club and the Tigers come away with a controllable version of Skubal such as Hunter Greene or Paul Skenes. Far-fetched, unlikely and hard to pull off, which is exactly the point. So is any realistic Skubal trade.
If the Tigers keep him through the winter, they get another chance to reassess in July if the season goes sideways. And if they never trade him and he simply walks as a free agent, they will at least collect draft-pick compensation.
No one needs to be convinced of Skubal’s value. That clarity, as much as any offer or rumor, is what ensures this storyline probably won’t go away.
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