Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros missed the playoffs this year for the first time since the 2016 MLB season. It was a frustrating year all around for the Astros, and they now enter the offseason with a lot of questions to answer.

Many of these are centered around the starting rotation and the lack of quality arms that the team has. And to make matters worse, star pitcher Framber Valdez is entering free agency.

Valdez has been one of the better pitchers for the Astros over the years, and he put together a fairly strong 2025 season. However, his first half of the year was much more productive than the second half.

Over his first 21 starts this past season, Valdez posted a record of 11-4 with a 2.62 ERA, while striking out 141 batters over 134 innings of work. However, things really changed for him in the second half as he saw his ERA jump to 6.05 over his final 10 starts.

It was an up-and-down year for him, but he remains one of the better pitchers available on the open market. But it does beg the question of how teams will use his inconsistency in contract negotiations this winter.

Valdez will also be turning 32 years old, and teams are normally hesitant to hand out large deals to players over 30. However, one area that could help him is that his velocity increased on his sinker this season, and it made a world of difference on the mound.

Since the Astros did place a qualifying offer on Valdez, it could make things tough for him to land a massive offer from somewhere else. Many teams generally don’t like giving up draft picks for free agents, unless they are of the superstar caliber.

Valdez is a very good pitcher, but he is seen as more of a No. 2 at best by teams across baseball. However, with the need around the league being where it is, we could see teams decide that adding the left-hander is more valuable than an unproven draft prospect.

This is just a prediction, NOT a report!

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Framber Valdez Returns to Houston Astros

Houston still could re-sign Valdez this offseason, but there will be some competition to make it happen. The Astros generally don’t spend too much to keep players, but this could be a turning point for the franchise.

As the Astros look around the league for starting pitching help, the team shouldn’t be overthinking things this offseason. While the idea of going out to land some new arms should be at the back of the mind, keeping Valdez in town should be a major priority.

Valdez has been one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball over the past few seasons, and Houston can’t afford to lose him. If this team is serious about getting back to the playoffs next year, adding him back to the rotation will be key.

The two sides are very familiar with one another, and they seem to have some unfinished business to attend to. Overall, returning to Houston makes the most sense, and it could be one of the smarter moves for him to make.