Early ZiPS projections for the 2026 season do not favor the Cincinnati Reds, particularly on offense and in the bullpen. The Reds were ranked near the bottom of baseball in 2025. Three players I want to focus on in these projections are Noelvi Marte, Sal Stewart, and Chase Burns.

Marte had a bounce-back season in 2025 after a nightmare year in 2024. Getting injured in the Dominican Winter League, a failed PED test, and everything going wrong at the plate. It looked like Marte was losing his place as a cornerstone piece of the franchise going forward. In 2025, Marte slashed .263/.300/.448 with 14 home runs, 17 doubles, and 10 stolen bases. Marte showed flashes of being a great offensive player. In August, he slashed .297/.330/.535 with five home runs. Unfortunately, a subpar September put a damper on his season numbers, possibly due to fatigue and the grind of learning new positions defensively on the fly mid-season. 

Marte’s 2026 ZiPS projections suggest he will take a step back on offense. The right fielder is projected to slash .252/.305/.396 and have a below-league-average OPS plus, at 88. For context, ZiPS projects Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Matt McLain, Gavin Lux, and Sal Stewart higher in OPS+. Marte finished ahead of everyone listed in 2025 who was qualified as a hitter. 

Stewart was the only player with an OPS+ higher than Marte’s in 2025 that I listed above, but the first baseman appeared in only 18 games that year. The 21-year-old projects well for 2026, hitting 19 home runs and ranking second on the team in WAR at 2.8. He is projected to finish second on the team in hits, third in doubles, second in home runs, and tied for second in RBIs. ZiPS still has him projected as a third baseman, but with Ke’Bryan Hayes winning the Gold Glove Award this past season, that looks unlikely. He will most likely rotate between first base and designated hitter with a spot start at third. With projections like this, Stewart may be a serious threat for the National League Rookie of the Year next season.

Chase Burns is a wild-card pitcher next season, and the projections have him pitching 104 innings, starting 21 games, and making 27 appearances. His ERA is projected at 3.78, slightly better than Andrew Abbott’s 3.80. The real question with Burns is whether he will have a strong innings limit again next season, and if so, when do they make that move during the season? His projected 28.7 strikeout percentage is just under Hunter Greene’s, and his 6.5 percent walk percentage is the second best, behind now-free agent Zack Littell. The 22-year-old has electric stuff and is a legit power arm aiming for a spot in the Reds’ rotation next season. 

You can find your favorite Reds player’s projections here.

2026 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati #Reds, now LIVE at @FanGraphs!#ZiPS26https://t.co/Z3BmE13Pz6

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) November 19, 2025

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