While the majority of the Reds’ fanbase would fall in love with the idea of signing a player of Kyle Schwarber’s pedigree, the Reds are most likely not going to offer a contract that would command him. The Reds, instead, will most likely do what they have been doing for the past few seasons: sign players to “prove it” deals and bank on them being a winning lottery ticket.
Austin Hays fit that mold in the 2024 offseason, signing him to a two-year contract with a mutual option for the second year. Frankie Montas in 2023, and Will Myers was that player in 2022. If I’m looking for a player that could be a productive power bat and be a prove-it type player, I am looking at Lane Thomas to be that guy this offseason.
With a career 5.4 WAR and 103 OPS+, Thomas had a bad year in 2025, to put it bluntly. A bone bruise and plantar fasciitis limited him to just 39 games. He hit just four home runs while batting just .160 with a .518 OPS. 2024 was also not great, but he did hit 15 home runs with a .237 batting average and a .709 OPS between his time with the Washington Nationals and Cleveland Guardians, finishing with a 100 OPS+. The outfielder posted an OPS+ over 100 in every season of his career except for 2020 and 2025. His numbers at Great American Ballpark are what get me excited.
In 38 career games played in Cincinnati, Thomas has a career slash line of .287/.347/.581 with 10 home runs and a tOPS plus of 151, his second-highest at any ballpark in Major League Baseball, and his highest at any ballpark with more than 11 games played.Â
Will these numbers translate to a full season? Most likely not, but they are definitely worth taking a flyer on if the Reds are not going after a Schwarber or Suarez-type player in free agency. Thomas may be the perfect low-risk, high-reward option this offseason on a budget-friendly deal.
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