For the first time in Peter Bendix’s two-plus years running the Miami Marlins front office, we have a credible report about the team negotiating a contract extension with a player. The negotiations did not go far, according to Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic, but earlier this offseason, the Marlins discussed a potential long-term deal with All-Star outfielder Kyle Stowers.
Ghiroli describes the two sides as being “incredibly far apart.” Stowers’ camp was using Bryan Reynolds as a comp, who received an eight-year, $106.75 million extension from the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2023. The Boston Red Sox and Ceddanne Rafaela agreed to an eight-year, $50 million deal in 2024 shortly after Rafaela’s debut, and that’s reportedly what the Marlins are comfortable spending.
Let’s acknowledge right away that Stowers is a tricky player to appraise, even compared to other individuals with short MLB track records. That’s because his track record has been particularly inconsistent:
First 117 MLB games (2022-24): .208/.268/.332, 6 HR, 33.8 K% and -0.9 fWAR
Last 117 MLB games (2025): .288/.368/.544, 25 HR, 27.4 K% and 4.0 fWAR
Clearly, the Marlins believe that this past season is more indicative of who he will be moving forward, otherwise they wouldn’t even be interested in a contract that may cover the rest of his career.
When the Pirates extended Reynolds, he was the same age that Stowers is now. He had a similar blend of power and plate discipline and a similar defensive profile (solid left fielder who could fake it in center). However, his breakout year (2021) was bookended by other full seasons of great hitting (2019 and 2022). That established a much higher “floor” for himself than Stowers has been able to do. Also, Reynolds was a year closer to free agent eligibility.
Stowers is under Miami’s club control for four more seasons. Any deal he signs as a free agent would start at age 32, at which point he’s likely to be past his prime. That’s why players who are pre-arbitration eligible while in their late 20s rarely get extended, period.
Whether it be Reynolds or Rafaela, we shouldn’t be referencing guaranteed eight-year frameworks in regard to Stowers. He is immensely valuable to the Fish moving forward, but not that far into the future. If Stowers were to essentially replicate his 2025 production in 2026, that would dramatically boost his earning power. Even then, that’d be reflected more so in his average annual salary than the length of the contract.
If Stowers and the Marlins return to the bargaining table this winter, I have landed on Matt Carpenter‘s initial extension with the St. Louis Cardinals as the most relevant starting point. Like Stowers, Carpenter was a pre-arb, left-handed hitter coming off an excellent age-27 season. The Cardinals locked him up for six years and $52 million, plus a seventh-year club option worth $18.5 million.
MLB salaries have inflated in the 12 years since the Carpenter deal. On the other hand, Carpenter was a significantly safer investment because of his defensive versatility and contact skills.
All factors considered, let’s bump the Stowers guarantee up to $63 million and the club option value to $20 million:
$3M in 2026
$8M in 2027
$12.5M in 2028
$12.5M in 2029
$12.5M in 2030
$12.5M in 2031
$20M club option in 2032 ($2M buyout)
Who says no to that?