Unfortunately for Giolito, his last start of 2025 came on Sept. 23, as he’d re-injured his elbow. Not only did it end his regular season prematurely, but he was left off the Wild Card roster as well.
Following the season, Giolito declined his end of a mutual option for the 2026 campaign. The Red Sox also chose not to extend him the qualifying offer, giving him free liberty to be pursued by other organizations with no strings attached.
Set to turn 32 years old next July, this might be his last chance to sign a longer-term contract. The question that remains is… will he?
Free Agent Profile: Lucas Giolito
Age in 2026: 31 (32 on July 14)
2025 Stats: 26 GS, 3.41 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 145.0 IP, 2.0 fWAR
2025 Salary: $20.5 million (including buyout)
Qualifying Offer Received?: No
Contract Projection
Contract Length Expectations: 2-3 years
Expected AAV: $16-22 million
It’ll be an interesting market to follow, Giolito’s. On one hand, he was great at the number one thing a starter needs to be great at: preventing runs. On the other hand, it was often not pretty, especially down the stretch, when he didn’t look nearly as strong as he did in July and August.
At the bare minimum, teams should know Giolito can eat up innings. He pitched just shy of 5.2 innings per start in 2025 and logged 14 quality starts among his 26 total.
The strikeout numbers were way down compared to his pre-injury years, but his home runs per nine innings nearly halved from 2023. Because of the strikeout regression coupled with walk stagnation, Giolito’s under-the-hood metrics are not super enticing. His 4.99 expected ERA was his worst since 2018; his 4.59 expected FIP was too.