Fans always want their teams to spend big, and rightfully so. The Los Angeles Dodgers did not become baseball’s first back-to-back World Series champions since the dynastic Yankees solely by seeking value at the margins.
But some of the game’s more risk-averse executives might point to all the hefty contracts gone wrong as reasons it is sometimes safer to focus on drafting and development than pushing all their chips toward the middle in free agency. Baseball’s economic system is intriguing and imperfect, and sure to be the subject of labor strife on the horizon.
Each year, we rank the 10 worst contracts in MLB, with Anthony Rendon taking the top spot in 2024. And it serves as another reminder that all these situations are fluid. This time, bounce-back years from the likes of Carlos Rodón, Trevor Story and Jacob deGrom helped change the perception of big deals from offseasons’ past.
In this year’s rankings, we’ll include 2025 production, FanGraphs $/WAR metric and the surplus or deficit that exists between the two to help inform the list. We’ll also consider remaining years, team situations and the overall vibe to determine which contracts have truly become doomed, sunk costs.
Honorable mentions
Christian Walker, Houston Astros: The first year of Walker’s three-year, $60 million deal with the Astros was a near disaster. Walker improved with a .799 OPS in the second half, but he’s going into his age-35 campaign coming off a season of decline.
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros: Correa is guaranteed $96 million over the next three years. He’s still a somewhat productive player, but he’s a far cry from matching the $32.83 million he is set to make next season. For all Correa’s qualities, both tangible and intangible, it was puzzling to see the Astros trade at last year’s deadline to take on a contract that already seems underwater.
Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox: He is guaranteed $18.6 million over each of the next two seasons. Might not seem like enough to break the bank, but Yoshida missed a large chunk of time with a shoulder injury and was worth -0.1 fWAR last season. He had a solid on-base profile in his first two MLB seasons, but his defense is severely limited, and he’s become an odd fit on the Red Sox roster.
Sean Manaea, New York Mets: Manaea took a huge step backward with his 5.64 ERA last season after dealing with a stubborn oblique injury. He’s due $50 million over the final two years of his contract, though more than $14 million of that is deferred. It’s still a high AAV for a pitcher who is soon to be 34 and has only once posted a 3-fWAR season.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks: After a strong 2023 with the Tigers, Rodriguez has shown little to be enthused about in his two years with the Diamondbacks. Rodriguez has posted ERAs of 5.04 and 5.02, and he’s still guaranteed $40 million over the next two seasons, with an innings-based incentive for 2028.
Andrew Benintendi, Chicago White Sox: He hit 20 home runs last year, but he’s done little to justify the biggest contract in White Sox history, a five-year deal he signed before the 2023 season. He’s guaranteed $32.2 million over the next two seasons, but his fWARs over the past three years have been -0.3, -0.1 and 0.2.
Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres: You’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone in baseball who thinks this is a good contract, but at least Bogaerts’ performance in 2025 was better than his 2024 season. He’s still a good shortstop, but he’s hit only 11 home runs in each of the past two years, and his offense has already declined from his peak with the Red Sox. The real problem is that this 11-year deal runs all the way through 2033, when Bogaerts will be 40.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: In November of 2023, Nola was a legit frontline starter, and the Phillies re-signed him on a seven-year deal. But after a rocky 2025 season, this contract suddenly looks very concerning. Some of Nola’s underlying metrics were better than his dismal 6.01 ERA, but the Phillies are paying him more than $24 million for the next five seasons. Can he rebound in 2026?
Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros: The five-year, $85 million extension the Astros gave McCullers before the 2021 season has proven to be a mess. Right elbow troubles cost McCullers all of the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Last year, a run of minor injuries limited him to only 55 1/3 innings, and he had a 6.51 ERA with a fastball that averaged only 91.9 mph.
Player
2025 fWAR
$/WAR
2026 salary
Surplus/deficit
▼
Years
0.4
$3.6M
$25 M
-$21.4 M
2
-0.1
-0.7 M
$18.6 M
-$19.3 M
2
-0.2
-$1.5 M
$17.7 M
-$19.2 M
1
0.9
$7.4 M
$24.57 M
-$17.17 M
5
0.2
$1.4 M
$17.1 M
-$15.7 M
2
2.6
$20.9 M
$32.8 M
-$11.9 M
3
1.1
$8.9 M
$20 M
-$11.1 M
2
1.3
$10.1 M
$21 M
-$10.9 M
2
3.2
$25.8 M
$25.45 M
$0.35 M
8
10. Tanner Scott, Los Angeles Dodgers
Original deal: Four years, $72 million
Remaining years
2026: $16 million ($5.25 million deferred)
2027: $20 million ($5.25 million deferred)
2028: $20 million ($5.25 million deferred)
2029: $5 million (conditional club option for “qualifying injury”)
Scott’s deal seemed lavish last winter. It feels straight-up excessive after Scott’s 4.74 ERA in his first year with the Dodgers. Even if Scott suppresses the home runs that plagued him in 2025, it’s very difficult for any reliever to be worth $20 million on paper. Opponents slugged .520 against his four-seam in 2025.
9. Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres
Original deal: Six years, $108 million
Remaining years
2026: $16 million
2027: $15 million
2028: $15 million
When Darvish re-upped with the Padres before the 2023 season, he was coming off a year in which he had a 3.10 ERA and finished eighth in the NL Cy Young Award voting. He was also 35 years old. In three years since, Darvish has pitched only 290 innings with a 4.41 ERA. Worse, he had a UCL repair procedure in late October and is expected to miss the entire 2026 season. Darvish’s 3.66 xERA was far better than his actual 5.38 ERA last year. But he just had another surgery, and even though the AAV isn’t overly steep, he’s signed through his age-41 season.
8. Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
Original deal: 13 years, $325 million
Remaining years
2026: $29 million*
2027: $25 million*
2028: $25 million (club option)*
(*Marlins will pay $10M.)
The good news? Stanton is coming off his most productive year since 2021. The bad news? Powerful as he is, he was still only worth 1.9 fWAR despite 24 home runs and a .350 on-base percentage. The hard truth is the Yankees are paying a DH like he’s an all-around star. It’s been a bad contract for a while. Stanton has hit enough to keep this arrangement palatable — and it helps that the Marlins are still paying part of his salary — but he’s heading into the back half of his 30s, and the Yankees are still seeking to reassert themselves as a championship team.
7. Javier Báez, Detroit Tigers
Original deal: Six years, $140 million
Remaining years
2026: $24 million
2027: $24 million
Like Stanton, Báez had a better year in 2025, enough to justify his roster spot and keep his career afloat. Báez began playing in more of a utility role, shifting to the outfield in the first half and even starting the All-Star Game in center field. The Báez of the second half, though, was back to his old ways. Despite some fun moments in the season’s final week and in the playoffs, Báez had a .548 OPS after the Midsummer Classic. The Tigers are no longer relying on him to be a star, but no one is counting on him to play like a $24 million lightning bolt again.
6. Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies
Original deal: Five years, $100 million
Remaining years
2026: $20 million
Not everyone loved the fact that Castellanos was included on this list at No. 10 last year. The 2025 season, though, proved exactly why this has become one of the worst contracts in baseball. Castellanos had the worst year of his career, watching his wRC+ fall to 90 (10 percent below league average) and even clashing with manager Rob Thomson. The Phillies seem motivated to move Castellanos this offseason, but they might not have any takers. He can still hit when things are right, and his personality is one of a kind, for better or worse. But he’s best suited as a DH, and he’s now in his mid-30s. If you believe in WAR at all, this has never been a productive deal for the Phillies. FanGraphs has had Castellanos at -0.2, 1.3, 0.2 and -0.6 over the past four seasons.
5. Joc Pederson, Texas Rangers
Original deal: Two years, $37 million
Remaining years
2026: $21.25 million
2027: $18.5 million (mutual option)
Castellanos’ contract has been bad for a while. But last season, Joc Pederson’s first year in Texas was an even worse deal. Signed to provide left-handed power and jolt the Rangers’ lineup, Pederson instead hit only .191 with nine home runs in 96 games. Pederson was marred by an unusually low .203 batting average on balls in play but had a disastrous minus-7 run value against four-seam fastballs. Maybe Pederson can have a better year in 2026. The Rangers are also paying a lot for a left-handed platoon bat who spent only three innings in the field all season.
Player
2026 fWAR
$/WAR
2026 salary
Surplus/deficit
▼
Years
0
$0
$38 M
-$38 M
1
-0.5
-$4 M
$27 M
-$31 M
3
-0.8
-$6.2 M
$21.25 M
-$27.45 M
1
-0.9
-$7.6 M
$19.2 M
-$26.8 M
4
-0.6
-$4.6 M
$20 M
-$24.6 M
1
1.8
$14.4 M
$37.1 M
-$22.7 M
5
0
$-0.2 M
$16 M
-$16.2 M
3
1.9
$15.4 M
$29 M
-$13.6 M
2
0.4
$3 M
$16 M
-$13 M
3
1.4
$11.4 M
$24 M
-$12.6 M
2
4. Anthony Santander, Toronto Blue Jays
Original deal: Five years, $92.5 million
Remaining years
2026: $19.2 million ($11.35 million deferred)
2027: $19.2 million ($11.35 million deferred)
2028: $17.45 million (opt-out, $11.35 million deferred)
2029: $15.45 million ($11.35 million deferred)
2030: $15 million (team option, $5 million deferred buyout)
The Blue Jays have chased many big-ticket free agents hard in recent years. Most of them chose to sign elsewhere (though Dylan Cease recently joined up on a long-term deal). Santander took Toronto’s money, but the Blue Jays made the World Series largely in spite of Santander’s first season in Canada. Santander played only 54 games in his age-30 season. He hit .175 with six home runs. Left shoulder inflammation plagued him for most of the season, and a back injury even made for a premature end to his postseason.
Santander has a chance to rebound if he can stay healthy in 2026. But his lifetime on-base percentage is only .305, and he provides little defensive value. It’s a risky profile and one the Blue Jays might be stuck with for the next four seasons. The deferred money makes it a bit easier to swallow for now, but it will feel worse in the future if Santander can’t turn it around.
3. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout is still a good player. But he is not on a good contract. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty Images)
Original deal: 12 years, $426 million
Remaining years
2026: $37,116,666
2027: $37,116,666
2028: $37,116,666
2029: $37,116,666
2030: $37,116,666
In some ways, Mike Trout was more productive than you might think in 2025. He had a .353 on-base percentage and smashed 26 home runs. His OPS+ was 21 percent above league average. He played 130 games, his most since 2019. There are also only six players who have a higher average annual salary than Trout. His days in center field are over. He stole only two bases last year. He is under contract for five more seasons, playing for an organization that has no discernible path to contention. It’s a hefty deal that has aged poorly and will likely worsen. Trout is already worth 87.5 career WAR, among the great players of a generation. The next five years, though, could be ugly.
2. Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
Original deal: Seven years, $245 million
Remaining years
2026: $38 million
As of now, only four players will make more non-deferred money than Rendon next season. Those players? Juan Soto, Zack Wheeler, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Aaron Judge. Safe to say one of these things is not like the other. Rendon did not play a single game in 2025. He had surgery to correct a left hip impingement and was largely out of sight and out of mind all year. It’s unclear what his status will be in 2026. The good news is the Angels have only one more year tied to one of the worst free-agent signings in history. Since his megadeal with the Angels before the 2020 season, Rendon has played only 257 games while hitting just 22 home runs and accumulating 3.7 fWAR.
1. Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies
Original deal: Seven years, $182 million
Remaining years
2026: $27 million
2027: $27 million
2028: $27 million
Rendon’s deal is mercifully coming to an end, which means there’s a new worst contract in baseball. Kris Bryant’s time with the Rockies has been a malaise, with injuries hampering the career of a player who once won Rookie of the Year and NL MVP in his first two seasons. Bryant played only 11 games in 2025 and had an ablation procedure on his back in May. Bryant is dealing with a chronic, degenerative disc disease. He has talked about not giving up, but the prognosis has also been far from optimistic. Bryant has never played more than 80 games in a season with the Rockies, and new executive Paul DePodesta inherits a situation that seems to lack any sort of encouraging solution.