Just before Thanksgiving, Rob Bradford of WEEI reported that some members of the Boston Red Sox front office believe veteran right-hander Sonny Gray is none too dissimilar from Minnesota Twins All-Star Joe Ryan.
This, of course, created another avenue for Red Sox fans to argue about what was a very polarizing trade. Gray, who turned 36 on Nov. 7, is two seasons removed from finishing second in American League Cy Young voting, but most recently put up a 4.28 ERA in 2025. With the dialogue surrounding the team’s need to acquire a “legitimate No. 2 starter,” fans seem to feel underwhelmed by Gray.
Let’s address the belief brought to light by Bradford: the Red Sox front office believe Gray and Ryan are very similar pitchers. At the outset, it seems foolish. After all, this is the same Ryan that Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow reportedly offered an arm and a leg — short of outfielders Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu — for at this past summer’s trade deadline.Â
Even if St. Louis didn’t require a package headlined by shortstop Franklin Arias (No. 3 on Talk Sox) or outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 2), wouldn’t the acquisition cost of Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke signify the talent gap between the two?
Not necessarily. Being seven years older and owed a lot more financially, that alone lowers the cost for Gray. Even if they’re the exact same pitcher, there are a ton of variables at large when a trade comes to fruition.
But let’s look at these two side-by-side and re-assess how Boston did in the Sonny Gray trade.
Whiffs and Chase
Last season was something of an outlier for Ryan in the chase department. Historically, he’s never been exceptional at missing bats, constantly hovering around the high-50s in his percentile, but inducing solid amounts of chase helped him rack up the punchouts.
In 2025, his chase rate fell to the 14th percentile. As a result, despite holding opponents to a .203 average on his sweeper, he only had a put-away rate of 18.8% on the pitch. He maintained a 34% whiff rate on it, but finishing hitters off became a problem.
As for Gray, he stayed well above average at both. In 2025, he had a chase rate of 31.2%, which put him in the 81st percentile. His whiff rate ranked in the 68th percentile. His sweeper was even better than Ryan’s, holding opponents to a .151 average while generating 42.4% whiff and 28.2% put-away rates.
This isn’t a long-lasting part of Gray’s pitching track record, but it explains why he’s able to maintain elite strikeout stuff despite an unspectacular fastball.
Fastball
If anyone is arguing Gray’s heater can hold a candle to Ryan’s, they’re lying. The Twins right-hander had a 93rd-percentile fastball in 2025 in terms of run value, holding opponents to a .204 batting average with a 26.9% whiff rate on his four-seam.Â
In fact, only Nick Pivetta registered more strikeouts on four-seam fastballs than Ryan in 2025, who had 108 and tied with San Francisco Giants left-hander Robbie Ray.
Gray’s four-seam got killed in 2025, as opponents slugged .594 against it. It’s not an outlier season either, as opponents slugged .567 against it in 2024. It’s simply not an effective offering anymore for the 36-year-old veteran, who reduced his usage rate to 21.7% in 2025.
He’s much more spin-dominant than he once was, and that’s more than acceptable with an increased use of his sinker and cutter to generate ground balls and weak contact. But, in a vacuum, Ryan made more sense given the trends established by Red Sox brass last season.
Overall, here’s how their 2025 seasons looked:
Gray: 4.28 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 3.07 xFIP, 21.6% K-BB, 3.6 fWAR, 180.2 IP, 66th percentile pitching run value
Ryan: 3.42 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 3.70 xFIP, 22.5% K-BB, 3.4 fWAR, 171.0 IP, 71st percentile pitching run value
ERA aside, hard to see much difference between the two arms, no? Thus begs the question: If you’re willing to trade Duran and/or Abreu for Ryan, why are you upset about trading Fitts and Clarke for Gray?
Which brings me to my next point:
Acquisition Cost
Part of why the Gray trade made so much sense this early in the offseason is the options it continues to give the Red Sox on the trade market. While fans think very highly of the team’s farm system, that doesn’t mean other organizations necessarily agree. Even if, say, the New York Yankees viewed the Red Sox as having the No. 2 farm system in the league, that doesn’t mean the Twins do.
It’s magnified to the grandest degree when we’re talking about MLB decision-makers, but it’s none too dissimilar to how we as consumers talk about farm systems on social media.
That said, age and contracts play a major role in determining acquisition cost. Ryan is turning 30 in 2026; Gray is 36. Therefore, Ryan is more expensive. The Red Sox likely have the ammunition for one big trade this offseason; why does that trade have to happen before any other moves are made?Â
The team acquired Gray for Fitts and Clarke, meaning the Red Sox still have their biggest chips — Duran and Abreu — to address a glaring need closer to January or even February of 2026. That could be circling back to Ryan, but it also could be to add impact to the heart of the order.
Plain and simple, these two arms for one year are not very far apart in terms of overall production. Gray’s a bit more battle-tested, while Ryan has more long-term projectability. But when you’ve got to get creative to bolster a roster that has so much of its team under control already, unloading all of your assets before Thanksgiving is poor management.
As is sitting on your hands waiting for Tarik Skubal or Hunter Greene to become available, similar to what Breslow did at this past deadline with Ryan. It seems he’s learned his lesson.