The Deal: 7 years, $210 million
Whereas Josh Naylor signed for $10.5 million less than B/R’s Tim Kelly predicted he would, Dylan Cease beat Kelly’s projection for him by two years and $85 million.
It’s a big gamble on the Blue Jays’ part, as it effectively predicts a bright future for a pitcher whose past success is all over the place. Cease was a Cy Young Award contender in 2022 and 2024, only to regress to an ERA in the 4.50 range in 2023 and again in 2025.
Two constants, of course, have been innings and strikeouts. Cease ranks eighth among all starters for the former since 2022, and first for the latter with 880 to Zack Wheeler’s 794.
Whether these will remain constants over the next seven years is anyone’s guess. Cease will be 30 years old on December 28, and he won’t have great command to fall back on if his stuff starts to age. His walk rate has consistently been in the bottom quartile of all pitchers throughout his career.
Then again, the Blue Jays have a lot of money and the timing couldn’t be more perfect for them to take risks. And with Cease now alongside Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and José BerrÃos, the potential reward for 2026 is nothing less than the best rotation in baseball.