One abysmal contract can set a franchise back years. The Braves know this better than most, which is why they’ve traditionally been extremely cautious, often outright avoiding bidding wars for top free agents. One of the clearest examples of a near disaster came just a couple of offseasons ago, when Atlanta attempted to pry All-Star Aaron Nola away from the Phillies.
Before reaching free agency, Nola had been one of the most durable and consistently excellent starters in the National League. From 2018–2023, he posted 25.9 WAR and didn’t miss a single start. But since signing his seven-year, $172 million deal to stay in Philadelphia, he’s produced just 3.4 WAR — making only 17 starts this past season while posting a 6.01 ERA.
It’s been such a steep decline that Nola landed in the honorable mentions section of Cody Stavenhagen’s list of the worst contracts in baseball for The Athletic.
“In November of 2023, Nola was a legit frontline starter, and the Phillies re-signed him on a seven-year deal. But after a rocky 2025 season, this contract suddenly looks very concerning. Some of Nola’s underlying metrics were better than his dismal 6.01 ERA, but the Phillies are paying him more than $24 million for the next five seasons. Can he rebound in 2026?”
Had the Braves struck a deal with Aaron Nola, the conversation surrounding this offseason would look much more grim. Their money would be tied up in an aging, seemingly declining starter coming off his first significant injury concerns in nearly a decade. And Nola isn’t the only player on Stavenhagen’s list the Braves were linked to over the years.
Another notable example came just last offseason, when Atlanta was outbid by the Dodgers for Tanner Scott. He secured a four-year, $72 million deal — a contract that now ranks as the tenth-worst in baseball entering the 2026 season, according to Stavenhagen.
“Scott’s deal seemed lavish last winter. It feels straight-up excessive after Scott’s 4.74 ERA in his first year with the Dodgers. Even if Scott suppresses the home runs that plagued him in 2025, it’s very difficult for any reliever to be worth $20 million on paper. Opponents slugged .520 against his four-seam in 2025.”
Another name on Stavenhagen’s list is one Braves fans have begged to reunite with every offseason — 2021 World Series hero Joc Pederson. His infectious personality consumed the city during his brief time in Atlanta, and there’s no denying how beloved he remains. But the Braves never seemed to show interest in bringing him back at the price other teams were willing to pay.
Pederson hasn’t been awful since leaving — he even made an All-Star team in 2022 — but he’s coming off a season where he didn’t crack the Mendoza Line, and he’s owed more than $20 million in 2026.
“Castellanos’ contract has been bad for a while. But last season, Joc Pederson’s first year in Texas was an even worse deal. Signed to provide left-handed power and jolt the Rangers’ lineup, Pederson instead hit only .191 with nine home runs in 96 games. Pederson was marred by an unusually low .203 batting average on balls in play but had a disastrous minus-7 run value against four-seam fastballs. Maybe Pederson can have a better year in 2026. The Rangers are also paying a lot for a left-handed platoon bat who spent only three innings in the field all season.”
For as frustrating as the Braves’ approach to free agency can be at times, the alternative is often far worse. Frivolous spending by teams without limitless financial resources is how franchises end up forced into rebuilds. The Braves may have been a massive disappointment this year, but they don’t have any true albatross contracts weighing them down. That gives them the flexibility to shake things up while still attempting to find the right balance that gets them back into championship contention.
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