It didn’t take long for smoke signals about payroll pressure to emerge from the Brewers’ camp this offseason. Those concerns are probably overblown, but they reflect a truth about winning in Milwaukee that doesn’t apply to many other teams. It’s possible that the same constraints that have compelled the Crew to forge a specific mode of operation over the last decade (and the same ruthless devotion to that system that has led to previous trades of this ilk) will lead the team to trade Freddy Peralta this winter, even if they don’t actually have to do so.
Few teams are harder to read than the Brewers, because baseball operations chief Matt Arnold runs one of the game’s tightest ships when it comes to preventing leaks to the media. He’s also a shrewd manipulator of the discourse around his team. Even if he had a budget far larger than he felt was needed, he wouldn’t say so. That would only give agents (for players available in free agency and those with whom he might wish to sign extensions) and trade partners more leverage. Whether Arnold had anything to do with the report in The Athletic that downplayed the team’s capacity this winter or not, that notion made its way through the rumor mill, without Arnold attached to it. It confirms things outsiders tend to believe about Milwaukee anyway, so it will be viewed as credible even if it isn’t true. The team can use the rumor to avoid being bidded up on the market, while they lurk as unexpected players on certain free agents because they actually have more to spend than others believe.
However, it inarguably made a major difference when Brandon Woodruff accepted the qualifying offer to return to the Brewers for $22.025 million last month. He’s now soaking up at least 15% of the team’s payroll, and while they have lots of cost-controlled young players who aren’t yet eligible for arbitration, they also have a growing list of somewhat expensive players. William Contreras, Andrew Vaughn, Woodruff, Peralta, and Christian Yelich head the list, but don’t ignore the fact that Jackson Chourio‘s salary rises to $7 million in 2026, too. If the team wants to make any material improvements to their roster, they might need to subtract some money in the process.
Peralta is the trade candidate who offers both the opportunity for a high-end return and substantial cost savings, if dealt. He’s the player for whom the team could get big value, making themselves even more nimble and dynamic for the next half-decade. He and Woodruff are the only ones whose value is confined to 2026, since they’ll each hit free agency thereafter. While a Peralta trade is not necessary (and would be difficult, for many within the organization, because of what Peralta means to the clubhouse), it might turn out to be the right move—and Arnold nearly always makes the right move, even when it hurts. Here, therefore, are five teams who look like strong suitors for Peralta.
Baltimore Orioles
Fans in and around Baltimore are ravenous for a big move—a massive, multi-year financial commitment to a free agent. They want head honcho Mike Elias to announce, in effect, that his team is once again one of baseball’s heavy hitters. That’s not Elias’s style, though. He might make an exception for the perfect player, but it’s telling that—two years after trading for Corbin Burnes and one year after letting Burnes walk via free agency, while signing Tomoyuki Sugano, Charlie Morton, Andrew Kittredge and Tyler O’Neill—the Orioles started this winter by trading oft-injured pitcher Grayson Rodriguez for outfielder Taylor Ward and signing closer Ryan Helsley to a short-term deal.
The prospect pipeline has been spilling forth young hitters for a few years already, but the Orioles’ farm system remains reasonably deep. They also have young players with big-league experience under their belt who could be good fits for the Brewers’ needs. Outfielders Colton Cowser, Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Dylan Beavers; uptrend pitching prospects Nestor German and Braxton Bragg; and a likely Competitive Balance Round A draft pick are all pieces Milwaukee and Baltimore could discuss.
Detroit Tigers
One of the nice things about Peralta, relative to other players on the verge of free agency, is that he’s very affordable. At just $8 million, his price tag for 2026 is much lower than those of many similarly talented pitchers in their final seasons of team control. (For instance, Burnes made $15.6 million in 2024, for Baltimore.) That widens the pool of plausible suitors, to include teams like the Tigers. After Jack Flaherty opted in on the second year of his deal and Gleyber Torres accepted the qualifying offer, Detroit faces some payroll constraints of their own, but they’re very much in the mix for the 2026 AL Central crown. Should they trade Tarik Skubal—but even if they don’t—they’ll need an infusion of high-quality starting rotation depth to position themselves for a deeper run next October.
Detroit’s farm system is much stronger than the Orioles’, too. Milwaukee could target high-end catching prospects Thayron Liranzo or Josue Briceño, with an eye toward replacing Contreras with the combination of Jeferson Quero and one of the two youngsters in 2027. Alternatively, they could focus on a big-leaguer like Zach McKinstry, and/or thr Tigers’ own tradable draft pick for 2026.
Houston Astros
No team with whom Peralta could land this winter would be a better match between player and new team, in terms of pitching philosophy. The Astros love smallish, highly athletic pitchers with a feel for spin and a willingness to issue the occasional walk as the price of missing as many bats as possible. Despite being a dynastic force in one of the league’s biggest markets, they’re also under some financial strain this winter. Reportedly, Houston doesn’t want to exceed the lowest competitive-balance tax threshold, but that ties their hands, and they need to replace the departing Framber Valdez.
Houston is shopping center fielder Jake Meyers, a valuable, well-rounded player—but Meyers isn’t much of a fit for Milwaukee. Peralta could be so perfect a fit in Houston that the Astros would entertain getting a third team involved, sending Meyers elsewhere while the Brewers rake in players from the third party in exchange for Peralta. Failing that, though, Milwaukee could try to buy low on the talented Cam Smith, or load up on the depth in the upper levels of Houston’s system. Pitchers AJ Blubaugh, Bryce Mayer and Miguel Ullola and top positional prospects Brice Matthews and Jacob Melton would all come up in conversations between the teams.
New York Yankees
Though they’re a fairly robust player development machine, the Yankees are going through one of their periodic downcycles in terms of prospect depth. They lack both expendable young players on the big-league roster and compelling pieces in the middle ranges of their top prospect list. Their best prospect, George Lombard Jr., would not be available in a Peralta trade, and third-ranked prospect Dax Kilby is too far away from the majors to headline a Peralta deal from the Brewers’ perspective.
The sweet spot is Puerto Rican righthander Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, a lanky five-pitch starter who got to Triple A at the end of 2025 and has a chance to be contributing in the majors by the end of 2026. There are several other promising arms in the upper levels of the minors for New York, so a deal is possible, but the team’s lingering injury concerns—they’ll enter spring training without certainty about the timelines of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, and Chase Hampton—could make it hard for them to let their best healthy young hurlers go.
Texas Rangers
Much like the Astros, the Rangers want to contend in 2026, but they’re up against the tax threshold and don’t want to spend what it looks like it will take to win the AL West again. Therefore, Peralta’s cost-effective upside has to be highly appealing.
Like the Yankees and Astros, Texas has a thinned-out farm system, showing the ravages of years of trying to win in the short term and the imbalance of the rules that dole out extra picks and international spending allotments to small-market teams at the expense of large-market ones. Unlike New York, though, the Rangers have lots of young players on the edges of their roster who could appeal to the Brewers in a deal. Starters Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker and Jacob Latz; twice-stumbling former top prospect Justin Foscue; and a bevy of relievers could be in play. The tough part would be finding a headliner who suits what the Brewers want to do in 2026; the Rangers’ best talents are a couple years away.
Crucially, all these teams play in the American League. The Brewers could trade Peralta to the Mets, the Dodgers or the Giants, but they could meet any of them as early as the Wild Card Series. Sending Peralta to the junior circuit would ensure that the Brewers only encounter him in 2026 if they reach the World Series, and they should be able to extract a comparable return from one of these suitors. That makes these five teams the natural landing spots, if Peralta does end up anywhere but Milwaukee for the final year of his contract.