Aside from being a perennial loser, mediocrity is the enemy of sports franchises. Being mired in the purgatory between being a contender and an also-ran is frustrating for organizations and their fan bases. The Astros are dangerously close to that middle ground and this winter may not do much to change that.

Astros GM Dana Brown is staring down the barrel of an aging and incomplete lineup with logjams in some spots and gaping holes in others. The assets of the team’s minor league are remarkably thin, something that happens when you have a decade of robbing from it to fill your own lineup and make trades that land you players of consequence.

Missing the playoffs as the Astros did might make you think it is time for an overhaul, but it’s not that simple. They still have players in their baseball prime and a group of young, talented guys who have their primes ahead of them. Owner Jim Crane doesn’t want to eviscerate a lineup he has said he believes can still be competitive, something he swears this team will always be with him in charge.

So, if you are Brown, what do you do? Really, there are a few options.

Make minimal strategic moves.

As much as Crane wants this team to win and has opened his checkbook to do it in recent seasons, flirting with if not completely disregarding the luxury tax apron. Only a small handful of teams in baseball will obliterate such thresholds because of the exorbitant cost. As a result, the safe money is on the Astros playing it relatively safe this winter.

Think a few small trades of roster players like Jake Meyers, Christian Walker and/or Isaac Paredes; as well as a handful of signings to bolster the pitching staff. Don’t expect big name deals. Meyers might be the most coveted name in terms of trade bait the team is willing to move (and that’s not saying a lot) right now and the cupboards in the minors, as we mentioned, are nearly bare.

Free agency could net them a few solid players, but any deals like what Dylan Cease got are completely out of the question. In other words, Framber Valdez isn’t getting a competitive offer from Brown and they aren’t dishing out $200 million contracts for anyone.

The result of this strategy and a steady stream of prayers for the returning injured (nevermind not adding any more to that list) is probably another middling season with a chance at the playoffs and not much more. With a looming labor war coming and fresh opportunities in the draft, this may be yet another transitional year for a team looking towards a future that is still a bit cloudy.

Ready to move Jeremy Peña? That might be what it takes to overhaul the roster. Credit: Jack Gorman

Go all in for one last run.

Given the ages of Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and a few others, it could make sense for the Astros to stock up this offseason and make one last push for a title while the guys who got them there twice before are still here and performing generally well.

This likely means more mortgaging of their limited minor league assets and probably some pretty consequential trades of players like Yainer Diaz or even Jeremy Peña to swing for big names both to bolster pitching depth, but to put additional bats into a rather meek lineup. Would Crane allow for the moving of young stars for one more chance at glory? Probably not if for no other reason than it would almost certainly send them hurtling over the luxury tax line.

The argument for this is probably shared by many fans who don’t care what it costs: just do it and let the chips fall where they may. Well, they did that and it absolutely worked, but it only did work because of the numerous home grown players that were part of those championship teams. We didn’t even mention some of the savvy, under-the-radar moves for young players that we often forget — Diaz was a throw-in piece in a relief pitcher trade.

So, while this kind of colorful offseason would be fun, there is no guarantee of success (ask the Mets) and it more likely leaves them in worse position after next season than standing pat.

Yordan Alvarez ain’t Carlos Lee. Credit: Jack Gorman

Go full fire sale and start over.

When the Astros did this after Crane purchased the team, it stung badly. There were points when the number of actual watchers of Astros games on local TV was zero. For as raucous a baseball fanbase as this is now, in 2011 when they won just 56 games, no one was paying attention.

It’s difficult to imagine this Astros franchise, so changed by the last 15 years of dominance, selling off their best players to replenish the farm system and start from scratch. First, the talent on this ball club is significantly better than the Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee-led team of 2011. Theoretically, they could rocket themselves to one of the best farm systems in baseball with a handful of moves, but that is about as unlikely as it would be helpful.

If sports teaches us anything, it’s that patience is a virtue, particularly in baseball where loaded teams often lose and others win, though the spending and success of the Dodgers is making that harder and harder to believe. Still, unless you are prepared to go through 100-loss seasons again in pursuit of what you hope will be another golden era of Houston baseball (with absolutely no guarantees in a completely changed MLB landscape), best not to temp fate.

This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2025.

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