When projecting what it will take to finish inside the top five in payroll, recent trends show that the fifth highest payroll has risen by an average of $10 million annually over the last four seasons. Using this, I project the mark to be at $265 million for 2026.
Being that the 2026 CBT threshold is set at $244 million, the Braves have roughly $32,530,000 remaining until they eclipse that mark. Atlanta would then have up to $52,530,000 to spend until reaching the first surcharge penalty of 12%, resulting in a payroll of around $264,000,000.
In my opinion, once a team crosses the CBT line, it makes little sense to stop right there. If the only consequence is a financial one, as Anthopolous has stated, you may as well be willing to continue to spend up.
With that in mind, the Braves would have up to $72,530,000 in space until they reached the next tier, which would result in draft pick penalties. This would result in a payroll of around $284,000,000.
Regardless of whether the target number is around $260 million or closer to $280 million, the Braves clearly have the ability to land in top-five payroll territory if they so choose to. It’s time to act on this promise.
Who Would They Spend It On?
The Braves have already made several moves this offseason.