We saw in our previous piece that the Astros stood in 19th in MLB with a .651 team BPO. For those that haven’t read the first piece, we noted that bases per out is a more comprehensive way of looking at offense and pitching because it includes a base running element. Naturally, most catchers do not contribute a lot in that department. We are going to build on the information from that first article, so I strongly suggest going back and reading it.

When looking at individual data, one must keep in mind how it fits into the team concept. It’s not only what your BPO is, but how many outs you are responsible for in general. This will become much more important when looking at backup catchers. Their BPOs will normally be lower, but they are also generally responsible for fewer outs.

We will be including two numbers in addition to the BPO and outs. We will have what we might call BPO+. That is simply a percentage of the league median BPO. We will also have a BPOP+ which is a percentage of the league average BPO amongst catchers profiled. We tried to include all catchers with 200 or more plate appearances. That ended up being 42 catchers.

BPOOutsBPO+BPOP+Yainer Diaz.5934208792Victor Caratini.65426996101

I did not include the league and positional medians in the table, but they are very important and become even more important depending on the position. I chose the median simply because players on the higher end and lower end usually skew the averages up or down. Diaz is 13 percent worse than the median (.671) semi-regular or regular, but that’s compared to the whole big league universe. Catchers lag behind other positions for a variety of reasons, so the median catcher (out of 42 catchers) was only .641.

The number of outs are paramount here. Diaz created the third highest number of outs of anyone on the roster. Outs are bound to happen, but you want to maximize the damage on a per out basis. Diaz hit 20 homers and drove in a good number of runs for a catcher, but he just didn’t steal first base often enough. It is hard to predict how many more runs they would have created if Caratini and Diaz had been flipped. It might not be much more than a win’s worth of run production, but for a team that tied for the last wild card spot, a win would have definitely come in handy.

In a perfect world, the Astros would simply bring Caratini back and maybe do more a job share in 2026. Given their salary constraints, an average starting catcher might be a little out of their price range. There are folks like Carson Kelly and J.T. Realmuto available via free agency, but they are starting quality catchers. We will focus on the next group of guys that fit within the 42 catchers that were profiled. Obviously, there are other names that might be better fits outside of that and going with Cesar Salazar as a backup is also an option.

BPOOutsBPO+BPOP+Danny Jansen.688234101107Jonah Heim.5123267679Elias Diaz.4982197377Christian Vazquez.4691606973

All four of these guys were starting catchers last season or have been in the past. There is nothing more insidious than the memory of an effective player. Heim was very solid when the Rangers won the World Series in 2023. He has not been the past two seasons. We all remember Christian Vazquez from the 2022 season. That was the last time he was effective.

Elias Diaz may have very well been a Coors Field mirage. He moved on to San Diego and became a shell of his former self. That leaves Jansen. The only question with Jansen is price. He has been a time share catcher for his entire career. His offensive numbers are superior to Caratini’s so would he cost more than Caratini? It’s really hard to say. He was officially non-tendered, so he is a free agent.

It is only one website, but most people swear by Spotrac.com when it comes to contracts and estimating market value. Only Dana Brown and Jim Crane know how much the Astros have to invest and how much they would want to invest in a backup catcher. Let’s take a look at what they are predicting for these four catchers and Victor Caratini.

Victor Caratini— 2.272 millionJonah Heim— 6.080 millionChristian Vazquez— 1.053 millionElias Diaz— 2.428 millionDanny Jansen— Not available

Those contract numbers don’t make much sense when looking at the numbers above. Part of that is that we are only looking at the hitting side of things. The other part is that the free agent market is not always as enlightened as it could be. There are three fielding numbers we tend to look at for catchers and all are available at Fangraphs. Most fans are familiar with Defensive Runs Saved. That comes from the Fielding Bible. The second are what we would call framing runs (FRM). The last category is Statcast’s Fielding Run Value. All of those statistics measure how good a player is compared to the average at his position in runs. Zero is average.

InningsDRSFRMFRVVictor Caratini418.0-5-2.6-3Danny Jansen739.1+6-5.4-8Elias Diaz650.00+1.0+1Jonah Heim800.1-7-3.7-3Christian Vazquez519.0+5+0.70

I’m not really sure how they are arriving at six million for Heim unless they are betting on positive regression. That would make sense if this were 2025 and he was coming off of one bad season in 2024. This is two subpar seasons in a row. Jansen’s value was not pinpointed, but he would seem to be closer to that six million level than anyone else on the list.

If Caratini is really a two million dollar player then I would sign him right now and be done with it, but I suspect he will go for at least the six million he got the last two seasons. That leaves Diaz and Vazquez. Vazquez has always been a strong defensive catcher, but at 35 he likely isn’t going to be a positive impact bat again. However, for a million dollars and if he only played 40 to 50 games you could stomach the lack of offense. The same is true of Diaz as well.

I suspect that the Astros wait around to see where the market goes for Caratini and Heim. Their numbers show that their market values should be flipped and if they are then it becomes a more difficult decision. Do you bite the bullet and sign a starting quality catcher to share time with Yainer Diaz or do you go cheap and hope for a bounce back candidate?