Adrian Houser is the type of pitcher who doesn’t create a buzz, but teams always seem to talk themselves into. He’s durable enough, the pitch mix is stable, and he’s the kind of veteran whose median outcome is “fine.” For a team like Detroit, hanging somewhere between competing and waiting for the next wave of arms, Houser fits the mold of the familiar offseason flyer.

Advertisement

Whether that’s actually a good thing depends on what part of his profile you focus on.

Below: The good idea, the bad idea, and the parts of his Baseball Savant data that really tell the story.

THE GOOD IDEA CASE1. A pitch mix that actually stabilized in 2025

Houser leaned heavily on his sinker again in 2025 — 45.9% usage, averaging 94.4 mph, generating 18 inches of arm-side movement and keeping hitters to a .293 batting average and while that’s not dominant, but it’s workable when you’re aiming for ground balls. He also spread the rest of the arsenal just enough to keep hitters from sitting on one shape:

Advertisement

Slider (15.4% usage): .233 XBA, .400 XSLG, .346 wOBA

Changeup (15.3%): .278 XBA, .351 XSLG, .285 wOBA

Curveball (11.7%): .223 XBA, .263 XSLG, .289 XWOBA

Those are respectable secondary numbers. The changeup, in particular, quietly carried the best expected results with .285 wOBA and 22.4% putaway rate, his highest among offspeed options.

2. The ground-ball tendencies still exist and still matter in Detroit

Houser’s 2025 ground-ball rate sat at 48.9%, almost identical to his career clip (52.2% across nine seasons). He’ll always give up air contact, but the profile isn’t extreme; his pull-side ground-ball rate (21.8% career) has held steady.

Comerica Park rewards pitchers who keep the ball down and live in the big part of the field. Houser does both by default.

Advertisement

3. His worst damage tends to come on very specific swings

The pull-side “AIR” (fly balls + liners + popups) has climbed in recent years — 18.2% in 2025, the highest of his career — but that rise mostly comes when hitters elevate his sinker or sit on the four-seamer.

The curveball, changeup, and slider still limit dangerous contact reasonably well. That gives Detroit’s pitching group something actionable: elevate the four-seamer less, lean into sinker/change sequencing, and force hitters into mishit contact. Houser doesn’t need reinventing — just sharpening.

4. He eats innings and doesn’t implode often

With nearly 1,200 MLB innings, Houser has a demonstrated baseline: he gives his team a chance. He’s not the type to strike out nine and walk one, but he also doesn’t get run out of a game in two innings very often. That alone has value for a team managing workloads for Reese Olson, Casey Mize, and young depth options.

Advertisement

THE BAD IDEA CASE1. No strikeout ceiling — and not much of a floor either

Houser’s whiff profile is rough:

Four-seamer Whiff%: 15.9%

Curve Whiff%: 27.2% (by far his best, but used only 11–12%)

Changeup Whiff%: 35.1% (good, but inconsistent execution)

His overall K-rate in 2025 settled at 14.1%, which puts enormous pressure on contact management. Detroit’s pitching identity has steadily shifted toward miss-shaping and punchouts. Houser does the opposite.

2. Pull-side damage is a growing problem

Houser’s 18.2% pull AIR rate in 2025 is a real red flag. That’s the exact swing shape that crushes sinkerballers once they start losing just a bit of command. When hitters know the horizontal movement is coming, they cheat the inner third.

Detroit’s defense can help, but it can’t fully erase a trend that has grown for four seasons.

Advertisement

4. ERA vs. xERA suggests erosion, not bad luck

Houser’s 2025 numbers:

That gap is small but important, the underlying indicators say the results matched the contact he allowed. He wasn’t unlucky; he was exactly what the expected numbers projected.

For a pitcher at age 32, these are usually signs that the plateau is going to tilt downward, not upward.

Added Depth is Fine

Houser fits a very specific kind of need:

If the Tigers want a veteran No. 5, an innings stabilizer, a cheap option who bridges the rotation while the system catches up, good idea.

If they’re hoping for a breakout, meaningful upside, swing-and-miss help, or someone who aligns with Detroit’s preferred pitch profiles, bad idea.

He is what he is: A contact-heavy, ground-ball righty whose value depends entirely on command and sequencing. In the right role, he helps. In the wrong one, he gets exposed.

If the Tigers treat him like a bonus arm, he makes sense. If they treat him like an answer, they’re asking for trouble.