The MLB Draft Lottery for the 2026 MLB Draft will take place tomorrow, Tuesday, December 9, 2025 at 4:30 p.m. Central time. For the second year in a row, the Texas Rangers are lottery-eligible, and thus have a chance — albeit a small one — at a top pick.
With the MLB Draft Lottery, all 18 teams who did not make the playoffs are initially eligible. However, a team that picked in the top six the previous year and pays into the revenue sharing pool is not eligible the following season, and a team that picked in the top six in each of the two previous years and is receives revenue sharing dollars is not eligible the following season.
As a result, there will not always be 18 teams actually participating in the lottery. This year, the Colorado Rockies, being a team that receives revenue sharing dollars that has picked in the top six the previous two years, are ineligible, as are the Anaheim Angels and Washington Nationals, revenue sharing payors who picked in the top six last year.
That leaves 15 teams who are eligible to get a top six pick. The Texas Rangers’ odds of getting the top pick are 1.51%. The team with the highest odds are the Chicago White Sox, at 27.73%. The Houston Astros have the lowest odds, at 0.34%. The odds of receiving each subsequent pick increase, though the amount they increase by depends on what teams get the earlier picks — for example, if the White Sox were to get the #1 overall pick, the Rangers’ chances of getting the #2 overall pick would increase to 2.09%, while if the Astros receive the #1 overall pick, the Rangers’ chances increase to just 1.52%.
The Rangers most likely won’t pick in the top 6, in which case they would pick no higher than 14th, and possibly as low as #18, depending on if any teams behind them in the draft order end up in the top six.