After striking out in somewhat embarrassing fashion yesterday in their pursuit of slugger Kyle Schwaber, who signed with the Philadelphia Phillies for 5-years and $150 million, it appears the Cincinnati Reds haven’t completely given up their attempt at improving their sub-par offense.
According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Reds haven’t jumped back into the free agent frenzy in search of said upgrade, they’ve instead started kicking tires on two big-ish names on the trade market. Chief among them is Arizona Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte, though the Reds reportedly have some interest in Tampa Bay Rays 2B Brandon Lowe, too.
Let’s establish some broad baselines here. Both Lowe (31) and Marte (32) have been pretty elite hitters over the course of their careers, with Lowe (123 OPS+) actually owning a slightly better league-adusted career mark than Marte (121 OPS+). Both are primarily 2Bs by trade and both hit from the left-side of the plate (with Marte a switch-hitter), though each has reasonable experience playing in the outfield and at other spots on the dirt. In theory, the Reds would be getting one of these guys and playing them at 2B a lot, but that’s not necessarily the only spot they might play – and it’s not a death knell for Matt McLain’s career there on the surface.
Narrow the focus a bit, though, and Marte and Lowe are in wildly different leagues.
While Lowe’s league-adjusted career marks best Marte’s, lately Marte has been in superstar territory while Lowe has simply been good. Dating back to the start of the 2022 season, Lowe has hit .241/.314/.453 (114 OPS+) in 1680 PA, being valued at 7.2 bWAR/7.4 fWAR as his defensive marks have been substandard, too. That’s a .336 wOBA and 115 wRC+ player who’s also set to earn about $11.5 million in his final year of team control before free agency.
Marte, meanwhile, has hit a brilliant .279/.360/.498 (134 OPS+) in 2721 PA since the start of the 2021 season, in which time he’s been worth 19.4 bWAR/19.4 fWAR with defensive metrics that have actually been improving as he’s aged. He’s also very much on the front-end of a major contract extension that will pay him up to $102.5 million through 2031, should he pick up his 2031 player option, and that’s hardly an overpay for him given his current level of excellence.
So while these two players in whom the Reds have interest share some similarities, they are valued in totally different manners at the moment.
If you’re going for Marte, you’re going for your new best hitter. You can make the case that Elly De La Cruz may well surpass him as early as 2026 (especially if he stays healthy), but that’s a wash for the current term. If you trade what it would take to get Marte, you’re acquiring him to be your best hitter. Though they go about their business in different ways, that’s a move that both on the bottom line and the expectation line matches their pursuit of Schwarber in ambition.
If you’re going for Lowe, you’re going for a pretty good upgrade to the offense, but with a guy who you are still going to platoon with a right-handed hitter. You’re getting a matchup-based guy for one season who, in theory, could mash in the middle of the order against RHP, but overlaps in a number of ways with what you’ve got in Gavin Lux already (with additional power, of course). An incremental move – and a good one, at the right prospect cost – but hardly a move that really pushes the club into another echelon.
This is a wide-net reveal of Cincinnati’s ambitions this winter, with an acknowledgement that they’re a) still trying to get better but b) are wary and realistic about what it will cost to do so at multiple levels.
It’s also worth pointing out, I guess, that Marte’s very own Arizona club once took Matt McLain with a 1st round pick back in the day, even though he spurned their offer to attend UCLA. The Reds then took him with a 1st round pick after his college days and he signed, but I do wonder if he’s got some favor embedded somewhere in their scouting department in the event the Reds do try to make a blockbuster deal for Marte.