Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal could be on the move this MLB offseason, and the Los Angeles Dodgers are given the best chance to land the starting pitcher according to Kalshi
Tarik Skubal is set to enter the final year of his contract in 2026(Image: Photo by Jane Gershovich/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
The MLB winter meetings are underway, which means it is time for general managers to wheel and deal with one another in person.
Already this week, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed All-Star closer Edwin Diaz, the Baltimore Orioles signed Pete Alonso, and the Philadelphia Phillies re-signed slugger Kyle Schwarber.
The biggest domino yet to fall is Detroit Tigers ace and back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, whose future hangs in the balance ahead of the final year of his contract in 2026.
According to prediction market platform Kalshi, the Dodgers own a 57 percent chance of landing the all-world starting pitcher to bolster their superstar-laden roster that is coming off back to back World Series titles.
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If the Dodgers were considered unstoppable before, adding Skubal to their starting pitching rotation would put them in a whole new stratosphere.
Unfortunately for the other 29 MLB teams, Los Angeles has the facilities to pull off this seismic trade due the strength of their farm system. They are also one of the only teams willing to make a leap like this, as evidenced by their aggressive pursuit of players like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and others.
Signing Skubal to a long-term contract is another story, but the Dodgers wouldn’t need to worry about that until the 2026-27 offseason, which could be impacted by a looming lockout.
Skubal could join a Dodgers pitching staff that has Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow(Image: Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Kalshi traders give the Tigers a 44 percent chance to retain Skubal for the 2026 season, at the end of which his contract is set to expire. The 29-year-old already rejected a four-year contract extension worth less than $100 million to stay in Detroit following the 2024 season.
If the Tigers are not willing to offer their ace a long-term deal in the realm of $400 million, then they will lose him and get nothing in return, unless they trade him before next year’s trade deadline.
Kalshi traders give the New York Mets, who have been unafraid to splash the cash under owner Steve Cohen, a six percent probability of landing Skubal.
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Skubal’s availability for trade opens the potential for a shift in the league’s power balance. Alongside Paul Skenes and Yamamoto, he is widely considered one of the best pitchers in MLB.
Across his two Cy Young-winning seasons, Skubal posted a 2.30 ERA with 469 strikeouts across 62 starts.
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