With just a week to go before Christmas, the MLB offseason remains in a bit of a lull; despite a flurry of activity to close out the Winter Meetings, both free agency and the trade market are stuck in a holding pattern, a big game of front-office chicken in which no one wants to blink first.
There are some signs that things could heat up soon, though. Alex Bregman’s market got a jolt of life earlier this week, while several big-name Japanese free agents need to make decisions sooner rather than later. We’ve got updates on all that and much more in our latest MLB rumor roundup.
Alex Bregman wants long-term security, could seek six-year deal
Wild Card Series – Boston Red Sox v New York Yankees – Game Two | Al Bello/GettyImages
As rumors continue to swirl around Bregman, ESPN’s Jeff Passan offers some more insight into just what he and agent Scott Boras have set the bar this winter, writing that the third baseman “figures to seek six years”. Which is understandable: As he enters his age-32 season next year, the clock is very much ticking, Bregman is running out of time to secure the long-term contract he wanted last offseason — the sort of deal that could well carry him through the rest of his career.
Which raises an interesting question: Are the Boston Red Sox willing to meet that price? Boston landed Bregman last year on a short-term deal with a higher AAV, after he reportedly turend down a six-year deal from the Detroit Tigers. The Red Sox need a big bat, especially after missing out on both Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, but how does Craig Breslow feel about paying up for a 32-year-old on the decline?
Could Diamondbacks go after Bregman while keeping Ketel Marte?
Philadelphia Phillies v Arizona Diamondbacks | Chris Coduto/GettyImages
When news first broke that Arizona was “kicking the tires” on Bregman, the assumption was that it would be away for the team to backfill the inevitable departure of Marte via trade, keeping the infield strong while helping address needs elsewhere (i.e., the pitching staff). But what’s better than one All-Star infielder? Two All-Star infielders: According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, “a scenario exists” in which the D-backs just sign Bregman, keep Marte and roll into 2026 with one of the better infields in the sport.
Of course, Rosenthal does stress that this isn’t a likely scenario, both for payroll reasons and because this could be Arizona’s last chance to get something of value for Marte: Next offseason, he gains his 10-and-5 rights, granting him full no-trade protection. But this team has consistently shown a willingness to get aggressive when they see an opportunity, so who knows?
Yankees, Cubs, Phillies among favorites for Tatsuya Imai, who could command $150-200 million
Samurai Japan v Netherlands – Game 1 | Gene Wang – Capture At Media/GettyImages
As of mid-December, the hottest pitcher still on the market isn’t Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez or Michael King. It’s Japanese righty Tatsuya Imai, whom the Wall Street Journal reports could secure a contract in the $150-200 million range before his posting window closes in early January. Imai has blossomed into one of the best pitchers in NPB over the last few years, and his diverse repertoire (and the fact that he won’t turn 28 until next May) make him a tantalizing prospect.
According to the Journal, the Yankees, Cubs and Phillies are among the teams known to be in on the bidding. Chicago probably has the biggest need for another arm of that trio, but both New York and Philly are in desperate need of at least one offseason splash — and Imai could be a better and more realistic investment than, say, Kyle Tucker.
Starting pitcher market is on the verge of heating up
Seattle Mariners v Houston Astros | Kenneth Richmond/GettyImages
While Dylan Cease is the only big-name pitcher to have signed so far this offseason, Passan reports “that could change soon” as just about every would-be contender needs more rotation depth. The teams most interested? There’s the Orioles, for starters, while the Mets are open to spending big if the years are short. The Astros, D-backs, Angels and Padres are also all in need of an arm or two. Given how few genuine difference-makers are available on the open market — and how cold the trade market is right now — it should only take one domino falling to bring the rest down soon after.
Munetaka Murakami might settle for short-term deal as posting window closes
2023 World Baseball Classic: Championship Team USA v. Team Japan | Daniel Shirey/GettyImages
While Imai and Kazuma Okamoto have until the first week of January to sign with an MLB team, Murakami has just a few days left in his posting window — and yet there have been crickets surrounding him for weeks now. It seems as though front offices are (understandably) concerned about his sky-high strikeout rate in Japan, and how that might translate to the Majors. If he’s not hitting 30 homers, he doesn’t figure to have much value, and you can’t hit 30 homers if you can’t make contact.
If Murakami doesn’t get the payday he wants, a short-term deal might be the best thing for all involved, allowing a team to take a chance on the player while the player in turn gets the opportunity to answer questions about his profile. He’ll be just 26 in February, after all, meaning a two- or three-year deal would still let him test the market again in his 20s.
Angels remain the most logical landing spot for Nolan Arenado
St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago Cubs | Matt Dirksen/GettyImages
Unless the Cardinals pay down most of the salary remaining on his bloated contract, it seems hard to believe that St. Louis will find a suitor for Nolan Arenado that allows him to play on a contender; he’s just too diminished a player at this point in his career, a mediocre bat whose defense is still good but no longer elite. The Angels have always made sense as an Arenado suitor — one that would allow him to return to the West Coast, and one that loves to pay for big names no matter the contract — and now Rosenthal reports that L.A. is at least exploring the possibility.
Finally negotiating a buyout with Anthony Rendon frees the Halos to find a new third baseman, and while Arenado is hardly a difference-maker at this point in his career, he’s still an upgrade, one that would ostensibly win some headlines for Arte Moreno.