What the Astros should do with 3B Isaac Paredes has not only been polarizing to the fans but a true point of contention with the franchise. Paredes is coming off the second best statistical season of his career, but it is also one year removed from one of his worst.

In his four mostly-full seasons, Paredes has alternated between OPS seasons of .739/.740, and OPS seasons of 800+. For his career, he is a .237 hitter with a .337 career OBP and .766 career OPS.

Last season, Paredes performed above his career norms, batting .254 with a .352 OBP and .809 OPS. It should also be noted that prior to suffering a torn hamstring, Paredes was batting .259 with a .359 OBP and .829 OPS, and that his final numbers went down a bit while he heroically tried to play on one leg down the stretch.

Paredes reestablished himself as a power bat at a premium position, and has two years of team control (Paredes qualified as a Super 2 player, so he has 4 arbitration years, and is entering Arb 3).

When Paredes went down July 19, he was the Astros best hitter to date, with a combination of power and plate discipline (noted by an OBP approximately 100 points higher than his batting average) that the Astros have wanted to get back to as a team over the last few years but have struggled to do so.

As a result, Paredes’ trade value around MLB is very strong. With an arbitration number this year of approximately $10M, Paredes represents a terrific value at a position where performances like Paredes’ last season are uncommon.

With Chandler Rome’s report yesterday that Paredes was making his Winter League debut, that would indicate that Paredes is ahead of schedule in his return from his hamstring injury. Previously, it had been reported that Paredes was not expected to be 100% entering Spring Training and may not be fully healed when the season started. With Paredes now playing winter ball, it lends credence to the idea that Paredes may be closer to full health than previously thought and be at or close to 100% entering Spring Training.

This not only means that Paredes could be healthy enough to play 1B and 2B in February, but also increases his trade value as any fears over lingering injury issues that interested teams may have had.

Paredes injury last season also forced the Astros, then in first place, to make trades to acquire more infielders. They traded for Ramon Urias, with the idea he could play both 2B and 3B, and then later took advantage of the Twins fire sale and re-acquired SS Carlos Correa who agreed to move to 3B.

Correa is a former Gold Glove SS who looked every bit the part of a Gold Glove 3B once in Houston. Paredes, to be fair, is not a comparable defender to Correa. Last season, Paredes was worth -3 Outs Above Average (OAA) – he’s a below average defender (not to be confused with a ‘bad defender’, which he is not)

Christian Walker is a former 3-time Gold Glover from 2022-2024 with Arizona. Despite a subpar overall season, Walker did post numbers more in line with expectation in the second half of last season. While his second half numbers were not exceptional, they were still pretty strong.

Last season, Walker hit .229 with a .286 OBP and .660 OPS, with 12 HR and 47 RBI over 377 PA (including 23 BB) in the first half. In the second half, Walker hit .250 with a .312 OBP and .799 OPS with 15 HR and 41 RBI over 263 PA (including 17 BB).

How much his first half was impacted by a rushed recovery from an oblique injury suffered during Spring Training (the same injury that kept him out over 2 months the season before in Arizona) can’t be measured but should be taken into consideration. It should also be taken into consideration that his second half would project to a full season (650 PA) of 37 HR and 101 RBI, exactly the kind of power production the Astros wanted to have hitting behind Yordan Alvarez in the lineup last season, and now Yordan and Correa in the lineup this season.

Walker’s glove also gave Correa, Paredes and Jeremy Pena a lot of confidence that they can let throws rip and Walker would come up with them, which he did. Whether or not Paredes can do the same is an unknown.

Hence the Astros find themselves in a conundrum. They love Paredes’ approach at the plate, they don’t know what kind of defense he will provide at a position other than 3B, and he clearly has the most value of any batter on their team not named Yordan Alvarez.

There is a school of thought to trading players when they have reached a zenith in value, and it’s fair to presume that Paredes has hit that zenith this offseason. Considering the Astros stated needs of starting pitching, their bargain bin signings and recent trade for Mike Burrows that cost MiLB CF Jacob Melton (their #2 prospect) and MiLB SP Anderson Brito (their #4 prospect), it stands to reason the best path to the Astros getting the kind of arm that could help replace Framber Valdez (who is not re-signing in Houston) would be in a trade involving Paredes. There is no chance a deal centered around Christian Walker could generate such a return, even with adding another top prospect like Brice Matthews. (Note the Pirates got 3 major league players for Burrows, as the price for controllable SPs is currently astronomical in terms of prospects).

Clearly, the team has a issue of having too many players on the infield and not enough places to play them. The Jose Altuve in LF experiment was an abject failure, and he needs to either play 2B or DH. There won’t be a lot of DH reps for anyone with a healthy Yordan Alvarez if Dana Brown’s most recent comments on Yordan getting less time in LF prove true, which locks Altuve at 2B.

Therefore, it stands to reason that Paredes or Walker will be the primary 1B, and that one of them will not be here when the calendar turns to February. Trading Paredes would generate a strong return. Trading Walker would require the Astros pay down part of his contract. For a team that is conscious of it’s current position relative to the first tax line, eating salary for a lesser return seems like a far worse decision than not eating money for a strong return of positions in need.

In no manner am I advocating that Walker is a better hitter than Paredes or is a better fit in the lineup, but I am advocating that the Astros can get a lot more for Paredes than Walker in terms of value. To get a #2 type young starter with team control (or a young SP with #2 upside) would absolutely require trading Paredes to reallocate his money/roster spot to that particular pitcher. Ideally the pitcher would earn less than Paredes and the team would have a net gain in salary, potentially allowing them to make another needed move.

Paredes is the kind of younger player a team like Houston should be building around if they were, in fact, rebuilding. However, this team is not rebuilding, they are re-tooling. They still have a roster capable of winning the AL West, they will still have the highest payroll in the AL West, and if they can avoid the “IL of DOOM” type season they had a year ago, they should win the AL West.

Jim Crane maintains as long as he is around, the window is always open. If that is going to be the case without punching up a $275M+ payroll, then it is going to require trading Isaac Paredes now and at his highest value to get the pitching they need to get through 162 games and be in the postseason.