Are the Jacksonville Jaguars the cream of the AFC crop? They certainly looked the part Sunday, as they ended the Broncos’ 11-game winning streak emphatically, winning 34-20 at Mile High Stadium. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence looks like he’s playing the best football of his career, and he has the Jaguars on the verge of winning their first AFC South title since 2022. They even have an outside chance of securing the top seed in the AFC.

Meanwhile, in the NFC, five playoff berths have already been claimed. While seeding still needs to be sorted out in the final two weeks, the Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers have all already punched their tickets to the postseason, and all but the Eagles still have a chance to win the No. 1 seed. With their win against the Colts Monday night, the 49ers have a clean path to taking the top spot: Beat the Bears in Week 17 and the Seahawks in Week 18, and the first-round bye is theirs.

Let’s take a look at what else happened around the NFL in Week 16:

Listed odds to make the playoffs, win the division and secure the No. 1 seed are all via The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock. Seven teams from each conference make the playoffs, with the top seed in each conference securing a first-round bye. Go check out our NFL Playoff Simulator to play out your favorite team’s path to the playoffs. 

Denver Broncos

The Broncos, who already clinched a playoff berth, maintained their hold of the No. 1 seed despite their loss to the Jaguars. But the 11-game winning streak is gone, and so is the margin for error in the race for the AFC No. 1 seed and the AFC West title.

The Broncos can get back on track this week against the Chiefs, who will be starting a third-string quarterback after a lifeless loss to the Titans in their first game without Patrick Mahomes. But regardless of that outcome, the Chargers would set up a winner-take-West finale in Denver if they can get past the Texans in Week 17. The AFC still runs through the Broncos, but they’ll have to earn it.

Final two weeks: at Chiefs, vs. Chargers

New England Patriots

The Patriots beat the Ravens Sunday night to clinch a playoff spot and pull even with the Broncos atop the AFC, but they have to finish with a better record than Denver to claim the No. 1 seed. That’s certainly attainable with their remaining schedules. Considering the challenges that will come from the trio of surging teams currently in the wild-card spots, the difference between the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds is massive. The Patriots can claim their first AFC East title since 2019 if they win their final two games against teams that have waved the white flag on the season.

Final two weeks: at Jets, vs. Dolphins

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars dismantled the Broncos to win their sixth in a row and improve to 5-3 against teams that are currently in the playoff field; they also clinched a playoff berth Monday night when the Colts fell to the 49ers. If they win their last two games and the Broncos and Patriots each falter once more, the Jaguars would be the AFC’s No. 1 seed for the first time since 1999. But the Jags can’t stumble themselves, as falling into a tie with the Texans would concede the AFC South lead.

Final two weeks: at Colts, vs. Titans

Pittsburgh Steelers

After beating the Lions, the Steelers now have a two-game lead over the Ravens for the AFC North lead — with a Sunday-night hat tip to the Patriots for beating the Ravens — so they can secure their first division title since 2020 in Week 17 with a victory over the Browns or a Ravens loss to the Packers. That would strip all the drama out of the Steelers-Ravens finale in Pittsburgh, but it could help the Steelers rest key players. The AFC North champ is virtually assured the No. 4 seed.

Final two weeks: at Browns, vs. Ravens

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers pulled away from the Cowboys, 34-17, and they solidified their second consecutive playoff spot Monday night when the Colts fell to the 49ers. The Chargers are now just a game behind the Broncos for the first time since Week 10, and they have an opportunity to steal the AFC West title. If the Chargers win or the Broncos lose this week, the division championship will be on the line in Week 18 when the rivals meet in Denver — a game that would be a candidate for the Sunday night season finale. The Chargers haven’t worn the division crown since 2009.

Final two weeks: vs. Texans, at Broncos

Buffalo Bills

The Bills survived the Browns, 23-20, continuing their trend of making things harder than necessary, and they clinched their seventh consecutive playoff berth with the Colts’ loss to the 49ers on Monday. The Bills also kept the pressure on the Patriots in the AFC East. If the Bills win their final two games, they’ll secure their sixth consecutive division title if the Pats fall to either the Jets or Dolphins down the stretch.

Final two weeks:  vs. Eagles, vs. Jets

Houston Texans

The Texans squeaked past the Raiders, 23-21, for their seventh consecutive victory, and they’ve quietly maintained a one-game gap behind the Jaguars in the AFC South. If the Texans win their last two games, and the Jaguars give one away, Houston would almost miraculously win its third consecutive division title, thanks to a superior AFC South record. Regardless of seeding, the Texans are poised to enter the playoffs as dangerous as any other team in the AFC.

Final two weeks: at Chargers, vs. Colts

In the hunt

Indianapolis Colts (8-7)
Baltimore Ravens (7-8)

Eliminated

Kansas City Chiefs (6-9)
Miami Dolphins (6-9)
Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)
New York Jets (3-12)
Tennessee Titans (3-12)
Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks seized control of the No. 1 seed and clinched a playoff berth Thursday with their wild, 38-37 overtime victory against the Rams. They’ve won five in a row and nine of 10, but the Seahawks have two challenging games on the road, where they’re 6-1 this season, to finish the job. The Seahawks have far too many tie-breaking scenarios to count, so winning out is paramount. But even if they don’t, Sam Darnold’s performance in the clutch on Thursday should give Seattle the confidence it’ll need to get through the NFC in the postseason.

Final two weeks: at Panthers, at 49ers

Chicago Bears

The Bears’ four-year playoff drought ended Sunday when the Lions fell to the Steelers. And with recent wins against the Eagles and Packers, the Bears look capable of winning their first playoff game in 15 years. Before that, though, the Bears want to secure their first NFC North crown since 2018, which will require one win or a Packers loss over the final two weeks. And if the Bears stretch out this two-game winning streak, they’ll stay in play for the No. 1 seed.

Final two weeks: at 49ers, vs. Lions

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles won the NFC East title Saturday with their victory against the Commanders, and they eliminated the Cowboys from playoff contention in the process. They’re the division’s first repeat champs since the Eagles won four straight from 2001-04. The Eagles are comfortably nestled into the No. 3 seed, as it’d take an unlikely series of events to either move up or down in the standings.

Final two weeks: at Bills, vs. Commanders

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers reclaimed the NFC South lead Sunday with a 23-20 victory against the Buccaneers, but their first division title since 2015 and first playoff berth since 2017 are anything but a formality. The Panthers can close it out this week if they beat the Seahawks and the Bucs fall to the Dolphins. But if that doesn’t happen, the Panthers-Bucs rematch in Week 18 will be a win-or-go-home scenario.

Final two weeks: vs. Seahawks, at Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers took care of business against the Colts on Monday, a day after already securing a playoff spot when the Lions fell to the Steelers. The Niners can still capture the No. 1 seed if they win their last two games, so that Week 18 duel with the Seahawks is shaping up as a strong candidate for the Sunday night season finale.

Final three weeks: vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams, who already clinched a playoff berth, have an easy road to close the season against a couple of teams playing out the string, but they now need help from the Seahawks and 49ers to reclaim the NFC West. Short of that happening, the Rams’ two most likely wild-card round opponents would be the Eagles or Bears.

The Rams have lost four in a row to the Eagles, and they lost their last meeting with the Bears in 2024, albeit in a game between two vastly different teams. The Rams still have a strong case as the NFL’s best team, but their postseason path is exponentially more challenging after the loss to the Seahawks.

Final two weeks: at Falcons, vs. Cardinals

Green Bay Packers

The Packers have lost two in a row, including a costly blown opportunity Saturday night in Chicago, won’t have linebacker Micah Parsons (torn ACL) for the rest of the season and have to hope quarterback Jordan Love can clear the concussion protocol. Still, the Packers are in a good position to make the playoffs for the sixth time in seven years, thanks to the Steelers’ victory over the Lions on Sunday. They only need one win or Lions loss to get into the postseason, and the Packers could still claim the NFC North crown if they win their final two games and the Bears drop their last pair.

Final two weeks: vs. Ravens, at Vikings

In the hunt
Detroit Lions (8-7)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)
Eliminated
Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1)
Atlanta Falcons (6-9)
New Orleans Saints (5-10)
Washington Commanders (4-11)
Arizona Cardinals (3-12)
New York Giants (2-13)