By Dan Hayes, Cody Stavenhagen and Zack Meisel

If you’re looking for offseason action, Hot Stove storylines, an arms race, cutthroat competition, bloodthirsty executives — well, the AL Central is not for you. That doesn’t mean it’s not interesting, though. This division has racked up four postseason series wins the last two years, and someone has to represent the group next October. Right now it just seems like that division winner might only need, oh, 83 wins or so.

The Tigers are obviously contenders, though Tarik Skubal’s status clouds everything in the Motor City. The Guardians are back-to-back AL Central champions, even if they rarely act like it in the winter. The Twins are keeping together their core – you know, the pieces left over from a summer flash sale. The Royals want to win. The White Sox want to escape the basement.

Who says this division doesn’t have intrigue?

Let’s start with the talk of the Central. Skubal could shape everything.

Cody Stavenhagen: Well, the Tigers certainly have some Hot Stove storylines. It’s just unclear whether the results will match all the hoopla. The Tigers have made clear they are willing to listen to offers on Tarik Skubal. That, to paraphrase president of baseball operations Scott Harris, is more a reflection of their open-minded philosophy that it is a desire to trade Skubal.

Despite all the noise, I think the chances of the Tigers dealing Skubal remain slim. That’s interesting, though, because the Tigers could certainly make a bid to blow 83 wins out of the water if they really wanted. They have the best pitcher in the American League and young hitters they expect to keep getting better. If this were the AL East, there would be greater incentive to add to that core, to sign an Alex Bregman or a Bo Bichette or even add a real No. 2 behind Skubal.

But this is the AL Central we’re talking about. Is there actually reason to believe the Guardians could win this division again?

Zack Meisel: You could cling to the usual platitudes. They always have the pitching. They’re always hanging around in the end. They have the league’s fourth-best record over the last 10 seasons (behind the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees). Yada yada yada.

If you squint, you can see it. Their rotation was electric in September, which fueled their historic comeback to win the division. Their bullpen somehow ranked first in ERA after Emmanuel Clase got busted in late July. The lineup — well, it stunk. But that made the offseason agenda a straightforward one and so far they have … not touched the lineup.

They added Colin Holderman, Peyton Pallette, Shawn Armstrong and Connor Brogdon to their bullpen and surely you’ve heard of at least one of them, right?

Stavenhagen: Hey, even though the Tigers don’t seem too interested in bolstering their lineup via free agency, they at least upped the ante by signing a player most baseball fans have heard of. Kenley Jansen is fourth all time in saves and will join what’s historically been a no-roles bullpen under A.J. Hinch. They also signed Kyle Finnegan, who was quite good after they traded for him last season (don’t ask how the other trades went).

Dan Hayes: When the Twins signed Josh Bell on Monday, it was their earliest free-agent signing since December 2022. It’s hardly big news, but Bell can hit for power with manageable strikeouts and he brings a veteran presence. It also means the front office really wants to build around Joe Ryan, Pablo López and Byron Buxton versus trading them.

What does any of this amount to? Your guess is as good as mine. Fangraphs had the Twins’ initial roster pegged for 82 wins because the starting rotation projects well. Hitting that mark requires a lot of young players to perform. Basically, the Twins are saying they think winning the AL Central is attainable by enhancing what’s left of the roster after the Trade Deadline Gutting of 2025ᵀᴹ.

Meisel: Cleveland’s fortunes lie in the hands — really the hamstrings and feet and obliques and hamate bones — of Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana, a couple of blue-chip prospects the club is banking on emerging in 2026. They’re also relying on some breakouts from a group that includes George Valera, C.J. Kayfus, Angel Martínez, Bo Naylor, Brayan Rocchio and Juan Brito. And they need those new horses in the rotation, like Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo and Slade Cecconi, to keep chugging along.

Foolproof plan? Hardly. There are significant injury concerns. There are the customary challenges of learning the big leagues for the first or second time. There’s a lot of risk here, more risk than, say, spending a little cash on a free agent or prospect capital on a trade acquisition to shore up the lineup. That could change, of course. It’s December, and the Guardians have been quietly snooping around a couple of markets. Their payroll would sit at about $70 million if the season started tomorrow, which should enrage everyone in and out of Cleveland.

So far, it’s been another cold, silent winter on the heels of another thrilling September and (early) October. The Guardians will presumably enter 2026, externally, with low expectations once again. If anything, maybe that helps Stephen Vogt’s bid for an unprecedented third consecutive Manager of the Year Award.

Dan Hayes: It’s surreal that the Bell signing and news the Twins want to hang onto their top guys — which seems like the bare minimum a team should do – qualifies as good. But that’s where the Twins are.

Twenty six months ago, Twins fans were riding high after their first playoff success since 2002. Then came the $30 million payroll cut, which ownership later described as “right-sizing” the payroll. Then the 2024 team collapsed after a 70-53 start. A week after saying the front office had what it needed to compete in 2024, ownership announced the exploration of a sale. Then the 2025 Twins went on a massive trading spree, including a Carlos Correa salary dump. Two weeks later, the sale was off. What a mess. Fans have been kicked in the shin over and over and over.

Offering this hope at long last is a small, but necessary step. Are the Twins crazy for thinking Bell and a few bullpen pieces might be enough?

In Byron Buxton and Co., the Twins boast high-end talent despite flaws in other areas. (Ed Zurga / Getty Images)

Stavenhagen: You joke, but is a bounceback out of the realm of possibility? In some strange world where Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis remain healthy, the Twins arguably have more high-end positional star power than either the Tigers or Guardians. I’m not so sure about a playoff run, but why tear things totally down to the studs when no one else is raising their hand to claim the division?

Last year the Royals were my pick to win the Central. They’ll have Cole Ragans back atop their rotation, they locked up Maikel García, and Bobby Witt Jr. is probably the best player in the division. They should be right here in this race to 83, 84, 85 or even — gasp — 86 wins.

Meisel: I love Kansas City’s pitching. They’ve added Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas to an outfield that was pitiful in 2025, with a league-worst 73 wRC+. They still need another bat, but they could be sneaky good.

Stavenhagen: And let’s not forget about our friends the White Sox. They still have a long way to go, but everyone loves Will Venable as manager, the team’s overall brand of play improved greatly throughout the course of last season and they picked up Munetaka Murakami. They’re still a clear fifth in this division, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they become sneaky interesting sooner than most people expect.

Hayes: Kind of feel like the AL Central is akin to one of my favorite lines from ‘The Firm.’ “It’s not sexy, but it has teeth.”