There is something I needed to get off my chest, but I wanted to keep it out of the lab. The key to all good science is to remain true to the scientific method and that means keeping opinions out of our stats as much as humanly possible. However, like many of you, I am an Astros fan and I am invested in seeing the team do well. I have also been an Astros fan since the early 1980s. I’m not going to bore you going that far back, so I thought I would simply look back from the turn of the 21st century on. I am simply looking at ML ranks in runs scored and runs allowed. Let’s see if we notice something.
We can look at the aggregate or we can look at the fact that the offense has outranked the pitching in only eight of the last 26 seasons. I really don’t feel like going back throughout my own fandom, but memory would seem to indicate the same over that same amount of time. This is usually where traditionalists would utter something like “pitching wins championships” or “defense wins championships.” Sure. There is some truth to that, but you win baseball games by scoring more runs than your opponent. You can do that in a 3-2 game or an 8-7 game.
I point all of this out because it informs my bias. I am like that bad shopping cart that pulls to the right no matter which way it is facing. I want offense. When in doubt I add more offense. If I have a little bit more to spend I will then go out and get more offense. I do this because that’s the way I’m wired, but I also think that way to counteract what the Astros have been about throughout my entire lifetime. They seemingly think the opposite. Even this offseason, almost every single rumor, headline, and hot stove item has been about them acquiring pitching.
Make no mistake, we will get to pitching in the lab and there is definitely a reason for wanting more of it. I just have a fundamental problem with a team being 21st in runs and 9th in runs allowed and thinking they only need pitching. That doesn’t make a lot of statistical or qualitative sense. You ask any Astros fan what kept them out of the postseason and most would not cite pitching. They would look at an offense that seemingly disappeared for games at a time.
This is where I introduce the term “magical thinking.” Essentially magical thinking is the belief that all negatives will improve and all of the positives will remain positive. There is a term for that in the English language. It is called serendipity. Serendipity happens. There will be a team next year that comes out of nowhere and makes the playoffs. I can’t tell you which team it is, but you can bank on at least one. It will happen because players that normally play well will continue to play well and others that don’t normally perform will magically perform. Those teams will go back to their normal self in 2027.
In the Astros case, there are a number of things that went wrong in 2025 that could turn themselves around. Yordan Alvarez could be healthier and more productive. Isaac Paredes and Jeremy Pena could be healthier as well. Cam Smith and Christian Walker could improve with the bat. Yainer Diaz could develop more patience. Jesus Sanchez could return to career norms. Jake Meyers could be healthier AND maintain his career high batting numbers.
All of those things are possible and some of those things might even be probable. What isn’t probable is for all of those things to happen at the same time. That is magical thinking. What is also magical thinking is to believe that nothing unforeseen will happen to knock you down a peg. The problem with the Astros is that they have seemingly banked on positive regression on a roster that is mostly getting older and not better. You traded your best utility man for a lesser version. You are also likely getting a lesser hitter at backup catcher. Every other player in the same. Are you better with a healthy Alvarez? Absolutely. Will that vault you from 21st to the top ten? That’s very unlikely.
This is usually where a smart commenter will chime in and say: what moves would you suggest? That is a fair critique. My answer for managers like Joe Espada (and Dusty Baker before him) is that you know they like to use their bench. Now is not the time to make your bench weaker. I was actually optimistic when I thought that Ramon Urias and Mauricio Dubon would be on the bench, Now, neither of them are on the bench and they have been replaced by Nick Allen.
One hedge on that bet are the presence of guys like Zach Dezenzo, Zach Cole, and Brice Matthews. They are more boom and bust than Dubon and Urias but the possibility of boom does give the offense a slightly higher ceiling. The question is how much opportunity they will get. We say all of this with the full knowledge that it is only December. We have two full months before we even see Spring Training action. There is time to address some of these things. It is simply going on past habits and organization focus. They will address the pitching staff somehow. They likely won’t address the offense and will just assume it all goes to plan. Now is not a good time for magical thinking.