Red Sox right-handed starter Brayan Bello fist pumping off the mound. (Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
There are rumblings in the world of the Boston Red Sox and plenty of them. While we still await to see if Alex Bregman makes his return or if the team completely pivots to a different player, the rumors continue to surround the trade market. According to Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon from The Athletic, the Red Sox are quietly shopping Brayan Bello.
The Red Sox showed their belief in the player by committing to him financially. In March of 2024, the Red Sox handed him a five year, $55 million extension, keeping him part of the fold until the 2029 season. Bello has served as a young building block for this group, something Breslow seems very inclined to doing. Handing out longer term deals to young players is his type of business. This is part of why moving a player like Bello is enticing for other teams. A middle of the rotation pitcher that is much more cost efficient than what you can get on the open market.
You know praise is real when legendary pitcher Pedro Martinez goes on to say that he has more talent than he has. Martinez is one of the most legendary pitchers the game had to offer and is in the Hall of Fame. For Bello, he hasn’t quite reached the ceiling of being an ace, but is a very formidable number two or three in any given rotation.
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Bello has progressed in his career and has showed more promise with each passing season. He has seen his workload climb up each year and for the second season in a row has surpassed the 160 innings pitched mark. Furthermore, he had a career year with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. It’s nice to see those numbers get lower from the years prior. There may have been luck involved, as he had a 4.19 FIP, but the results are the results. Bello has also been one of the better starters over the last two seasons, ranking 21st among qualified pitchers in ERA (3.91).
Throughout the course of his career, Bello has a 4.09 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and has pitched 543.1 innings. Although, Bello has a career strikeout rate at 19.8% and this season was the lowest strikeout rate of his young career with 17.7%. He isn’t not known has a high strikeout pitcher, seeing his highest K/9 being 8.63 his rookie season. It was noticably low this season with 6.70. Also, Bello has been prone to walking batters, as he walked 8.4% of the ones he faced. That does need to change moving forward. The Red Sox evidently have a type and pitchers with swing and miss ability perk up their attentions.
One thing Bello has been great with pitch usage wise is his offspeed pitches. Most notably his changeup. Since breaking into the league, Bello has thrived with that pitch, seeing it become his top putaway pitch until 2025. Bello was not throwing the pitch nearly as much, but still had a high whiff rate with the pitch. One major attribute to Bello this season was his arm angle. In 2024, his arm angle was 28 degrees and in 2025 it was 33 degrees. Given the 33 degree arm slot, it’s perfect for pitchers wanting to force weak contact. Bello is a ground ball pitcher and having an elite defense behind him is important.
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Overall, this sounds like a great player and a pitcher that’s worth keeping around right? Also, there are potential reasons as to why Breslow would be willing to listen and field offers.
Given how Craig Breslow has carefully constructed this roster, trading from the rotation would come as a shock. On paper, the Red Sox have a plethora of depth and removing one piece from the rotation they’ve tried to reinforce would shock many. If you are the Red Sox, you feel at least pretty good from a pitching standpoint entering the 2026 season. They’ll be led by Garrett Crochet, who’s coming off a CY Young finalist season and performed like the elite ace everyone expected. Sonny Gray as it stands does serve as the teams’ number two Veterans Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval will be able to serve as options to compete for a roll on the staff. Then you have the kids.
Red Sox’ Brayan Bello’s Baseball Savant page.
Connelly Early showed maturity beyond his years when he made his debut. Even though he has made four starts, he’s a well rounded pitcher with a lot of tools to like. Early had a 36.7% Chase rate, 33.9% whiff rate, and a 36.7% strikeout rate. His four seam fastball was successful, having a .176 batting average against with it. His best secondary was his sweeper (throwing it only to lefties), but had the same amount of strikeouts as his four seam with eight. The organization showed to have plenty of trust with Early, giving him a playoff start and pitching 3.2 innings. That was a longer leash he got compared to Bello in Game 2.
“He had a taste of what it is to pitch in October, in Yankee Stadium, in a win-or-go-home game, right? What better experience that we want for a young kid to have, right? So moving forward, he’s gonna be better, and I’m excited about his future.”
Then you have the top prospect in the organization in Payton Tolle. Tolle is a polarizing pitcher, with an electric fastball packed with vicious velocity. Once he develops a secondary pitch that he trusts, he is a bonafide weapon and a major front line starter for this group. What we’ve seen countlessly over the years is the ascension of pitchers through the minor league systems. Trey Yesavage is the big one that comes to mind. For the Red Sox they could have one on their own with Kyson Witherspoon.
It has been noted that Witherspoon had more maturity and poise in his game. That is a major key for him as a prospect. Like Early, there is plenty to work with. His former coach at the Univeristy of Oklahoma described his mindset as elite and is a very disciplined and detail oriented pitcher. His arsenal is packed deep with a five pitch mix, highlighted by his four seam fastball that sits between 95-99 MPH.
Over the course of his college career, he developed secondary pitches and some still need work. His cutter is used frequently and generates plenty of swing and miss. His slider was his first developed breaking ball pitch and has potential to be an above average pitch in his arsenal. The potential for him is a front line starter and we will see how his ascension goes in 2026. Baseball America projects that he is one of the 12 prospects to make their MLB debut in 2026. Magnificent.
So what’s my point talking about the kids? Well, they are the present, but also the future of Red Sox baseball. If you break down a rotation going into 2027, it’s Crochet, Early, Tolle, Witherspoon. That’s a salivating rotation to think about and could push Bello out the door at that rate.
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Craig Breslow has gone on to note that he wants a front line starter for Jarren Duran. It remains to be seen if that truly even happens, but would further bolster the depth at the position. It would make exploring a Bello trade even more likely. Why this also makes sense from a business standpoint is you look at the return for Shane Baz.
The Orioles sent FOUR of their top twenty prospects to the Rays for three years of control for Baz. Given the pipeline for the Red Sox, Breslow could fetch a return that can replenish some of what he’s parted with from the farm this winter. When you look at the Stuff+ models via Fangraphs, Baz grades out a little bit better than Bello. Here’s how they graded out in 2025 comparably:
Baz: Stuff+: 107. Location+: 98. Pitching+: 107
Bello: Stuff+: 96. Location+: 101. Pitching+: 98.
As you can see with the two comparable photos, the grades on Baz’s pitched out grade Bello. Only pitch that is awfully close is their changeups.
A return would be interesting, especially given what Bello has done to this point in his career. The Red Sox do have other areas of need, preferably the lineup. There is a world where Bello is part of a bigger move to land a high impact player of need in return. Time will tell what happens with Bello and his future, but there is a path where it does make sense for the Red Sox.