The final two playoff spots could come down to a pair of Week 18 elimination games between division rivals. In the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens beat the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night and got the help they needed from the Pittsburgh Steelers, who fell to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, to keep Baltimore’s playoff hopes alive. Now, the Ravens (8-8) and Steelers (9-7) will square off in Pittsburgh on “Sunday Night Football” to determine who will advance to the playoffs as the AFC North champions and who will start their offseason early.

In the NFC South, a somewhat similar showdown has materialized, as the Carolina Panthers couldn’t take advantage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ loss to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Carolina fell to the Seattle Seahawks to set up a potential winner-take-all clash in Week 18. The Panthers (8-8) will travel to Tampa Bay to take on the 7-9 Bucs in a Saturday game that may send one team to the postseason as the No. 4 seed and another team home for the winter. The only way this doesn’t become a loser-goes-home game is if the Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints on Sunday; in that case, the Panthers would claim the division title regardless of the outcome vs. Tampa Bay.

Meanwhile, in the quest for the No. 1 seeds, the Denver Broncos are one win away from locking up the first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, while the NFC’s top seed will come down to a Saturday night showdown between division rivals: the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Seattle Seahawks.

Listed odds to make the playoffs, win the division and secure the No. 1 seed are all via The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock. Seven teams from each conference make the playoffs, with the top seed in each conference securing a first-round bye. Go check out our NFL Playoff Simulator to play out your favorite team’s path to the playoffs.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos won the AFC West for the first time since 2015, which is also when they won their last playoff game, and they’re still in control of the No. 1 seed. They’ll secure the top spot with a victory against the Los Angeles Chargers in the finale, or with losses from both the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Broncos shouldn’t mess around with the Chargers, as they’ve already lost once to their division foe and don’t want to invite the possibility of a third showdown on the same field a week later. Plus, after getting handled by the Jaguars in Week 16, the Broncos would like to avoid ending the season with two home losses to playoff opponents in three weeks.

Final game: vs. Chargers

New England Patriots

The Patriots won the AFC East for the first time since 2019, which was Tom Brady’s final season in Foxboro. Now with the Drake Maye era off and running, the Patriots still have a shot at the No. 1 seed if they beat the Dolphins and the Broncos lose to the Chargers — a tall order with the Chargers opting to rest their starters. The Patriots’ playoff opener will mark their first postseason game at Gillette Stadium in six years, when Mike Vrabel’s Tennessee Titans ended Brady’s New England tenure. The Patriots will lock up a top-two seed with a win against the Dolphins. However, if they lose and the Jaguars beat the Titans, the Patriots will fall to No. 3.

Final game: vs. Dolphins

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars outlasted the Indianapolis Colts, 23-17, to win their seventh consecutive game and remain ahead of the Houston Texans in the AFC South. They’ll win their first division title since 2022 if they beat the Titans, or id the Texans fall to the Colts, and they could leap into the No. 1 seed with a win and losses from the Broncos and Patriots, which is a long-shot scenario. They can also jump the Patriots for the No. 2 seed with a win and a Pats loss. The Jaguars’ .455 strength of victory is the highest in the AFC field, so they’re relatively battle-tested for a young group.

Final game: vs. Titans

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers blew an opportunity to win the AFC North by dropping an ugly 13-6 decision to the Browns. Now, they’ll have to beat the Ravens for the second time in five weeks to claim their first division title since 2020. The Steelers have swept the Ravens in three of the past five seasons, though, so there is precedent. The Steelers are trying to get to the playoffs for the third consecutive season, while the two-time defending AFC North champion Ravens are trying to reach their fourth straight postseason. The winner on Sunday will be the No. 4 seed, while the loser’s season will be over.

Final game: vs. Ravens

Houston Texans

The Texans have won 11 of 13 games, and their only two losses during that stretch are against the top-seeded Seahawks and Broncos. However, they’ve beaten the Jaguars, Bills and Chargers during their eight-game winning streak, so they’re brimming with confidence. The Texans are in the playoffs for the third year in a row, and they can steal their third consecutive AFC South title if they beat the Colts and the Jaguars lose to the Titans. If the Texans don’t get any help, they can lock up the No. 5 seed with a victory, which will ensure a trip to meet the AFC North champion in the opening round.

Final game: vs. Colts

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are locked into a wild-card position with the Broncos already clinching the AFC West, so they’re only jockeying for seeding in the finale against Denver. One problem, though, is that the Chargers’ woefully shorthanded offensive line was further exposed against the Texans’ elite edge rushers, and the Broncos lead the NFL with 64 sacks. Justin Herbert has already been taken down 54 times, so the Chargers’ potential undoing could be on full display in this closing stretch.

Final game: at Broncos

Buffalo Bills

The Bills sputtered in a 13-12 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, ceding the AFC East title to the Patriots and dropping to the No. 7 seed as a result. While their streak of five consecutive division titles crashed to a halt, the Bills can still try to win a playoff game in their sixth straight postseason. That won’t be so easy, though, because they’re 0-8 in road playoff games over the past 30 years, including four losses with quarterback Josh Allen.

Final game:  vs. Jets

In the hunt

Eliminated

Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
Miami Dolphins (7-9)
Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)
Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)
Cleveland Browns (4-12)
Tennessee Titans (3-13)
New York Jets (3-13)
Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have ridden a six-game winning streak to the doorstep of their first NFC West title since 2020, and they’ve matched their franchise record with 13 victories. The other two times they’ve done that, they went to the Super Bowl in 2005 and 2013. The Seahawks’ path to get back there would be more palatable if they could secure the No. 1 seed, but they’ll have to slay a dragon to make it happen. They need to win the finale against the 49ers, who have won seven of the last eight meetings between the division rivals. Otherwise, the Seahawks will head out on the road as a wild-card team.

Final game: at 49ers

Chicago Bears

The Bears clinched the NFC North title Saturday night when the Packers lost to the Ravens, but they were eliminated from contention for the No. 1 seed with their own loss to the 49ers. As the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, the Bears will host either the Packers or one of the NFC West wild-cards in the playoff opener, potentially even setting up a rematch with the Niners. They’ll be the No. 2 seed with a win against the Detroit Lions or an Eagles loss to the Washington Commanders. Otherwise, they’ll drop to No. 3.

Final game: vs. Lions

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia outmuscled the Bills, 13-12, in the rain for their biggest win since Week 10. The Eagles, who already wrapped up the NFC East title for the second year in a row, are 3-3 against teams in the playoff field, and they’re 5-0 in home playoff games with quarterback Jalen Hurts. The defending Super Bowl champions are flawed but unafraid, and they’ll be a chore to knock out in the postseason. They’ll be the No. 2 seed with a win against the Commanders and a Bears loss to the Lions. Otherwise, they’ll remain at No. 3.

Final game: vs. Commanders

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are 5-5 in their last 10 games, alternating wins and losses throughout that stretch, but it’s been enough to maintain their edge in the NFC South. That’s because the Buccaneers have lost four in a row and seven of eight, and they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 6. However, for the Panthers to win their first division crown in a decade, they’ll need one of two things: They either need to beat the Bucs in Tampa, sweeping them for the first time since 2017, or they need the Falcons to beat the Saints. In the latter scenario, they’d win the division regardless of the outcome vs. the Bucs.

Final game: at Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers’ shootout victory against the Bears set up a winner-take-all game with the Seahawks for the NFC West title and No. 1 seed. With the Niners’ six-game winning streak and their recent history against the Seahawks, they should feel confident about their chances to finish the job. If they do that, they’d enter the postseason with home-field advantage — the Super Bowl is at Levi’s Stadium, too — and a 5-3 record against teams in the playoff field.

Final game: vs. Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams, who lost to the Falcons on Monday Night Football, will not repeat as NFC West champions, so they’ll open the playoffs on the road as the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. They were the first team to clinch a playoff spot this season, but the margin for error is so slim in the NFC that an overtime loss to the Seahawks on a 2-point conversion dramatically redirected their postseason path. Really, with four losses by a combined 14 points, the Rams know they had their chances to run away with the NFC. The Rams are 4-4 against teams in the playoff field, but three of their losses came on the road, which makes one of the season’s best-looking teams decidedly more vulnerable.

Final game: vs. Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed after a third consecutive loss, and the wheels appear to be falling off. They wasted backup quarterback Malik Willis’ outstanding performance Saturday in a 41-24 loss to the Ravens, whose 307 rushing yards were the second most by any team this season. The Packers have allowed an average of 145.8 rushing yards over their last nine games. For perspective, that’d be the third-worst mark in the league if stretched out over the whole season, and a bad run defense might be the most difficult weakness to overcome in the playoffs.

Final game: at Minnesota Vikings

In the hunt

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

Eliminated

Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
Detroit Lions (8-8)
Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1)
Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
New Orleans Saints (6-10)
Washington Commanders (4-12)
Arizona Cardinals (3-13)
New York Giants (3-13)