It was a series of contradictions. Monday night, the Cubs lost the opener of the series. The Cubs have excelled in series openers this year. They lost in large part because early, middle and late game, the pitching staff failed. The offense had a good night, scoring seven, but lost. This team had been very good when scoring five or more.
The series looked to be in rough shape. The bullpen suffered an injury to a key member and showed some signs of wear through Monday night. It’s tough to go on the road and win without some good pitching. The Cubs got very good pitching Tuesday and then again Wednesday afternoon. Tuesday night, it was Jameson Taillon about 85 percent of us went with him as the player of the game. Wednesday afternoon, it was Cade Horton. Hopefully this game isn’t carved up for a career highlight film. It wasn’t perfect by any means. But, he held the Marlins to one run, got up near 100 pitches and pitched into the sixth.
In an odd microcosm, the Cubs bullpen threw 10 innings in the series. They allowed two runs. Those two runs lost a game. Two scoreless innings Tuesday and 3⅔ Wednesday. The game got to two outs in the ninth Monday in part because the bullpen had shut that one down. Daniel Palencia was handed the ball with the game on the line for the second consecutive time. This time, he worked a 1-2-3 ninth inning.
Hat tip to Craig Counsell for sticking to his decision. It isn’t one that I would have made. But Palencia split two opportunities and didn’t miss too far from converting both. This series was a few feet away from Kyle Tucker’s glove or a better slide at the plate away from a Cubs sweep. As it is, the Cubs have taken four of six from the Marlins. They aren’t going to be a competitive team. But the Cubs took care of business. You can’t expect a team to do better than four of six. You can hope for it, but there just isn’t that much difference between teams.
There wasn’t much offense in this one. A total of eight hits for the Cubs, three of those by Kyle Tucker. He was involved with both runs. Aggressive baserunning was a weapon for this team once again in a close game. The Cubs entered play Wednesday third in the MLB in stolen bases and then stole two more. They entered tied for the highest successful steal percentage. They weren’t caught. Interestingly, the Cubs are a little less than average at taking extra bases (41 percent vs. 42 percent average). But, they are also below average in outs on bases (13 percent vs. 14 percent average).
The Cubs are also above average in defensive efficiency and fielding percentage. This is a team that can beat you in so many ways. It’s an enormous if, but if this team can find some pitching, they have a chance to get very deep into the playoffs. Offense, defense and baserunning are all somewhere in the good to very good range. Baserunning possibly bordering on elite. How much pitching can this team pull together.
We shall see.
Pitch Counts:
Cubs: 140, BF 35
Marlins: 148, BF 35
No big separation in this game. Signs of a pretty well pitched game. The Cubs have an off day on Thursday. Were that not the case, it’s reasonable to imagine all hands would be on deck. Even Brad Keller, who went 1⅔ innings, only threw 17 pitches.
Without a lot to take a look at on this day, let’s peek at how the relievers were used. Caleb Thielbar faced 7-8 in finishing out the sixth. Then he faced 9-1 in the seventh, exiting with a runner on. Keller then faced 2 to get a double play in the seventh. Then he faced 3-4-5 in the eighth. That left Palencia to face 6-7-8 in the ninth. Many of you have noted that Keller is emerging as the Cubs’ best reliever. Here, he faces the heart of their order on their (perceived and actual) last time up. I love using the best available reliever, matchups considered, to face the best hitters that last time. Craig tried it twice and it probably should have worked twice.
Three Stars:
On a day where there wasn’t much offense, Kyle Tucker has to be my top star. The homer in the first for the second straight day and that meant that the Cubs never trailed in either of these last two games. He also had the hit that led to the second run. For good measure, he stole third in an effort to get another run.
Cade Horton can’t be any lower than this in my book. He got through 16 outs. Took him 24 batters. He’s a work in progress. No one can take away from him that the first three times he’s pitched in a major league game, his team won. You can’t ask much more.
Matt Shaw gets the nod on the last spot. He had a nice series in his return to the lineup. On Wednesday, he had a double, a walk, a stolen base and the decisive run scored. He walked and stole second ahead of the Tucker single/error play in the eighth. His line is up to .217/.325/.319 (wRC+ 89).
Game 50, May 21: Cubs 2, Marlins 1 (30-20)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Kyle Tucker (.287). 3-4, HR, RBI, R, SB
Hero: Brad Keller (.235). 1⅔ IP, 4 BF
Sidekick: Cade Horton (.219). 5⅓ IP, 24 BF, 6 H, 3 BB, R, 3 K
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-193). 0-4
Goat: Ian Happ (-.170). 0-4
Kid: Miguel Amaya (-.104). 1-4
WPA Play of the Game: Kyle Tucker’s single and error with one out in the eighth inning led to the second and decisive run. (.221)
*Marlins Play of the Game: With a runner on first and no outs in the sixth, Pete Crow-Armstrong smoked one right at the first baseman, resulting in a double play. (.111)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll
Who was the Cubs Player of the Game?
This poll is closed
0%
Someone else (leave your suggestion in the comments)
(3 votes)
307 votes total
Yesterday’s Winner: Jameson Taillon (178 out of 212 votes)
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Kyle Tucker +21
Shōta Imanaga/Drew Pomeranz/Miguel Amaya +11
Colin Rea +9
Dansby Swanson -8
Ben Brown/Michael Busch -11
Julian Merryweather -13
Seiya Suzuki -13.5
Up Next: The Cubs finally face the divisional rival Cincinnati Reds (25-26). As of now, the plan appears to be Matthew Boyd (4-2, 2.98, 51⅓ IP) against Hunter Greene (4-2, 2.36, IP). Boyd has made three starts in May (2-0, 3.50, 18 IP). He’s already surpassed his season total of eight starts last year. Next up is his total in 2023 of 15 which was his most after 2019. Boyd actually pitched better against the Mets and Giants than the White Sox, oddly enough.
Greene, hasn’t pitched since May 7. He missed time with a groin injury and may be limited as he comes back The two starts he had totaled nine innings, four hits, two walks and one run. He left the last one after just three innings, but he’d already struck out six through three innings. Greene continues to grow and mature. This is no gimme.