The Baltimore Orioles (16-33) and Boston Red Sox (26-26) play a day-night doubleheader Saturday at Fenway Park. First pitch for Game 1 is set for 1:05 p.m. ET (FS1/MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Orioles vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 3-1

The Orioles lost 19-5 as +105 underdogs at the Red Sox Friday with the Over (9.5) hitting. SP Cade Povich allowed 1 earned run over 5 innings, but the bullpen gave up 13 runs in the bottom of the eighth. 2B Jackson Holliday went 2-for-5 with a double and 2 RBIs. They’ve lost 9 of their last 10 games.

The Red Sox, who were -114 favorites, scored a season-high 19 runs Friday. DH Rafael Devers went 4-for-6 with 2 home runs and 8 RBIs. OF Rob Refsnyder finished 3-for-5 with a home run and 4 RBIs. Friday was Boston’s third win in its last 4 games.

Orioles at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Zach Eflin vs. LHP Hunter Dobbins

Eflin (3-2, 5.08 ERA) makes his sixth start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 1.0 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 28 1/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 10-4 home defeat vs. Washington Nationals Sunday2025 road stats: 3-0, 2.65 ERA (17 IP, 5 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 4.2 K/9 in 3 startsLast start vs. Red Sox: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 3-0 home defeat April 2Career vs. Red Sox: 3-1, 5.00 ERA (36 IP, 20 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 7 starts

Dobbins (2-1, 3.62 ERA) makes his seventh start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 32 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 3-1 home victory against New York Mets Monday2025 home stats: 2-1, 3.38 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 4 startsHas never faced Orioles

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Orioles at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:35 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Orioles -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Red Sox -110 (bet $110 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+150) | Red Sox +1.5 (-185)Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)Orioles at Red Sox picks and predictionsPrediction

Orioles 4, Red Sox 3

BET ORIOLES (-110).

I like the Orioles to bounce back in Game 1 of Saturday’s day-night doubleheader. They perform better in day games, hitting .263 on the season compared to just .206 at night, which ranks last in MLB. With their best pitcher, Eflin, on the mound — who has been outstanding on the road — the Orioles have a strong advantage. Dobbins has never faced this Baltimore lineup, and it will be a challenge for him. The Orioles are lefty-heavy, and lefties hit nearly .100 points better against Dobbins, with left-handed batters posting a .333 average compared to .239 for righties. Additionally, Boston hasn’t been dominant at Fenway, sitting at just 15-12 at home this season. I believe the Orioles will get back in the win column in Game 1 of the doubleheader.

PASS.

You’ve got solid odds on the moneyline with the Orioles. I’ll keep my wager there.

BET UNDER 9.5 (-120).

The Under has hit in 3 of the Red Sox’s last 4 games and in 3 of Eflin’s last 4 starts. The last time Eflin faced Boston as an Oriole, the game went Under. With these pitchers on the mound, I don’t expect an offensive explosion, making the Under a strong play.

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