Steamer is one of the more widely used projection systems in baseball. They use a formula that weights recent seasons, along with attempts to predict regression for players based on several factors. Looking ahead to 2026, Steamer has a few interesting predictions for the Twins roster.

Luke Keaschall was one of the few bright spots in 2025, slashing .302/.382/.445 across 207 plate appearances, good for 34% better than league average. Not many players are capable of earning a projection anywhere near that performance, but Steamer predicts a step back across the board.

Keaschall is projected for a .267/.350/.400 line. Steamer predicts a steep decline in batted-ball luck and power for him They still count on a solid 2.6 Wins Above Replacement, but interestingly enough, this is accounting for above-average defense from him. Anything is possible, but the defensive value is questionable, if Keaschall remains at second base.

 

The Twins will be relying on Keaschall to repeat as a legitimately great player in 2026, and Steamer doesn’t quite see that happening. He did show some signs of regression, and it may be worth baking in a step back from his elite performance in 2025, given the small sample.

 

Joe Ryan and Pablo López project as the Twins’ top two starting pitchers for 2026, and Bailey Ober still comes in third. After Ober, the rest of the rotation feels like a toss-up, with candidates such as Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Simeon Woods Richardson. Despite Ober having an ostensibly undisputed spot in the rotation, assuming he’s still on the team, his projected value is almost exactly the same as many of these other names competing for spots.

Ober comes in at 2.0 WAR, with Bradley right behind at 1.9. Matthews and Woods Richardson project for 1.8 WAR. Ober’s lead on this group likely comes from the weight of his strong 2023 and 2024 seasons; his 2025 has only dragged his projections down.

 

This will be a big season for Ober, after physical concerns and a lack of velocity plagued him in 2025. With so many options to replace him if he continues to struggle, his hold on a rotation spot is as weak as it has been since 2023. With the Twins in need of all the help they can get, they’ll need vintage Bailey Ober, or to be quick to move off of him if he looks like his 2025 self.

 

The Bullpen is in Dire Straits

It should be no surprise that the Twins’ bullpen projects as a real problem, but Steamer outlines just how big a hole it is. With Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk tied with projections of 0.4 WAR apiece, the 2025 Twins’ roster included seven relievers who were more valuable. That included Sands himself and Justin Topa, who will both return, but the state of the bullpen is bleak.

 

Steamer can only project based on the current roster, meaning the Twins can still drastically improve their outlook before the offseason is over by adding pieces. It’s also uncommon for Steamer to project potential relievers like John Klein, Marco Raya, Conner Prielipp, etc., for strong relief performances when they’ve been starters throughout the minor leagues and haven’t debuted yet. Nor should we ignore the possibility that one of Bradley, Matthews or Abel will move to the pen and have success.

The Twins have talked internally about rebuilding the relief corps. That’s one avenue they can use to beat their projections. That being said, given their starting point in the bullpen, it’s hard to imagine a respectable performance from the current group. They will likely still need several successful external additions (as well as many of these up-and-coming arms) to hit their 90th-percentile outcomes to come anywhere close to 2025’s bullpen.

 

It’s worth noting that projection systems have been wrong about the Twins for several seasons now, typically predicting much more success than the team has actually achieved. Still, with some filling out of the roster still on the way, it’s interesting to look ahead and see what Steamer predicts for the Twins’ 2026 roster.