The Rays are driving opponents nuts 90 feet at a time

TAMPA — Speed, of course, is the talent. Scoring, naturally, is the goal.

Chaos, delightfully, is the happy byproduct for Tampa Bay.

You may have noticed the Rays have been a little rambunctious on the bases this season. Going into the weekend, they led the majors in stolen bases per game and were on a pace to steal a franchise record 220.

How rare is that? In the last 30 years, only the 2024 Nationals have stolen more.

This is not a coincidental happenstance. Major League Baseball’s recent rule changes — limiting pickoff moves, increasing the size of bases — made it easier to steal and gave the Rays another peripheral to exploit.

Now, think about some of the players the Rays have brought in since 2024. Jose Caballero. Jake Mangum. Jonny DeLuca. Richie Palacios. Travis Jankowski. Notice a trend? They haven’t cornered the market on speed, but the Rays have purposefully invested in it.

They may not be able to compete financially for sluggers like Aaron Judge or Vladimir Guerrero, but the Rays can compete on the margins for assets that may be overlooked in other markets.

And while stolen bases may not have the same cache as home runs, there are ancillary benefits.

Like driving opponents nuts.

“Not all pitchers can control the run game and give catchers a chance to stop runners from stealing bases,” said Rays manager Kevin Cash. “And those who don’t, sometimes they have to alter the pitch selection of what they’re choosing for the hitter.

“It’s very tough for a pitcher who is not equipped to prevent baserunners to do it on the fly. And with our roster, whether it’s J-Lowe (Josh Lowe), Wallsy (Taylor Walls), Cabbie (Caballero), (Kameron) Misner, and definitely, Chandler (Simpson), we are creating some mental stress on some teams in terms of, ‘How do we defend this?’”

Speed alone is not enough. The Rays discovered that last season when they led the American League in stolen bases but also in caught stealing and pickoffs. So, while they are actually running more in 2025, they are trying to be more strategic about how they do it.

Through 50 games, the Rays were stealing bases at an 83% clip, which is a not-insignificant increase over the league average of 78%. Last season? The Rays were at 77%. Not so long ago, it was generally accepted that 75% was a decent success rate. With the new rule changes, you want to be above 80% to make the risk worthwhile.

For the most part, players are on their own, or they decide with first-base coach Michael Johns when they’re going to run. Cash will occasionally — rarely, he said — throw up a red light to keep them in place.

In some situations, the threat of the steal is almost as valuable as the extra base itself. Let Simpson hit in front of, say, Yandy Diaz and you can assume Diaz will see an increased share of fastballs. Put Caballero on base and watch how the infield alignment shifts as the first baseman has to hold the runner and the middle infielders cheat toward second base.

You can visibly see, Caballero said, when a pitcher is getting anxious about a baserunner.

“Oh yeah, for sure, they start thinking about you,” Caballero said. “They start doing things they’re not used to doing. Even if I don’t get the steal, I feel like it’s still a win just because they’re focusing on something else besides the hitter.”

The Rays have gone through this with their own pitching staff. They’re not particularly strong at holding runners because they do not like the slide-step that speeds up deliveries and they do not want to alter their pitch selection when it comes to hitters.

The general feeling is that elite baserunners are going to get their stolen bases and there’s not a lot you can do about it. So the Rays focus more on the players who have decent speed but get stolen bases when pitchers aren’t paying attention.

We’re talking about differences that are miniscule and almost imperceptible on the surface. Ryan Pepiot, for instance, says his normal delivery to the plate while pitching out of the stretch is around 1.5 seconds. With a good baserunner at first, he wants to speed that up to 1.3 or 1.4. Any faster, he said, and it will start affecting the quality of the pitch.

“It’s more changing your look so you’re not the exact same with every pitch,” Pepiot said. “If you’re at 1.3, you’re giving your catcher a chance. It may take a money throw that’s absolutely dotted and perfect, but you’re at least giving him a chance. You’re just trying to keep the guy at first off-balance. You don’t want to come set, then 1-2-3 pitch.

“If you’re doing the same thing every single time, you might as well just give them the bag.”

These are the types of headaches the Rays are causing for opponents most nights. Not surprisingly, when the Rays do not steal a base, they are 4-12 this season. Now, that’s partially explainable by games when they do not produce enough baserunners.

But there’s also something to be said for the pressure they’re putting on opponents.

Just go back earlier this week when a double steal by Misner and Caballero set up a two-out, two-run single by Jonathan Aranda to tie the game in the eighth inning of an eventual 3-2 win against the Astros.

A couple of weeks earlier, Simpson pinch ran in the eighth against the Yankees. He stole second and third while Brandon Lowe also stole second. Both came around to score the tying and winning runs in another 3-2 victory.

“I couldn’t be more impressed, happy, excited about our success rate. We’ve been really intelligent with our decisions of when to steal,” Cash said. “You can be a team with a big bat coming off the bench, but on a given night we’ve got the weapon of two baserunners coming off the bench.

“And you can book it; they’re going to get their 90 feet.”

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The Rays are driving opponents nuts 90 feet at a time

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