In failing to outbid the Chicago Cubs and retain Alex Bregman, the Red Sox have succeeded in painting themselves into a corner.
There’s but one option remaining on the free agent market — Bo Bichette — and he’s going to require more money and a longer deal than Bregman just landed.
If you’re at all optimistic about the Red Sox winning that bidding war, congratulations — you possess belief in the franchise that few can still muster.
In the end, the contract the Cubs gave Bregman wasn’t outlandish. It included deferrals that will lower the present-day value, as well as the AAV (average annual value), a key component when it comes to monitoring the CBT.
A year ago, the Red Sox got into a staredown with Bregman and his representatives and won. When Bregman finally agreed to a three-year, $120 million pact last February, camps had opened and time was running short.
The fit appeared perfect, too. Here was a winning player with known leadership abilities, a stout defender who offered righthanded balance to an increasingly lefty lineup.
The deal had something for both sides: Bregman landed a $40 million AAV, albeit one that was reduced some by deferrals, while giving him the added attraction of some opt-outs.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, got something far more for their money. When Bregman signed, the Red Sox regained some long-lost credibility with their fan base. The contract signaled that they were again serious about winning, and when that was followed two months later by a six-year contract extension for Garrett Crochet, fans were convinced that the era of austerity at Fenway was mercifully over.
The arrival of Bregman and Crochet, coupled with the influx of young talent, signaled that it was OK to trust the organization again. A return to the postseason, however brief, validated the whole approach.
And now? Now, the Red Sox are right back to where they were a year ago, their trust strained if not entirely spent, with few pathways back.
It’s impossible to feel sorry for them. The Sox were casual at best in their pursuit of alternatives earlier this offseason. They barely stirred when it came to Kyle Schwarber, and while many presumed he was always going to return to Philadelphia, the Red Sox, with their resources, could have given him something to think about. They did not.
They made an offer on Pete Alonso, but reportedly never went beyond a three-year proposal, a laughably underwhelming approach for a 30-year-old free agent in his prime with multiple teams interested.
If their laissez faire approach to other free agent sluggers signaled a confidence that Bregman would ultimately return to them, they learned otherwise, the hard way, late Saturday night.
And it’s not like there are several alternatives for them a month out from the start of spring training. Ketel Marte is officially off the trade market and Bichette has a number of different suitors, including the Philadelphia Phillies.
One could argue that the Phillies have chronically underachieved on the field in recent seasons, failing to get out of the Division Series in each of the last two seasons despite consecutive first-place finishes. Over the last four years, they’ve gone from losing in the World Series to losing in the NLCS to twice losing in the Division Series.
But when they want or need a player, they usually get him. They made Schwarber a priority and re-signed him. And with new bench coach Don Mattingly, a known mentor to Bichette, they’re now considered the favorites to emerge as winners of these negotiations, too.
If they miss out on Bichette, the Sox will be forced to make do from within. They could install Marcelo Mayer at third and form a platoon of Romy Gonzalez and David Hamilton for second base, but both solutions are, to put it mildly, imperfect. Mayer, talented as he may be, hasn’t established himself and must prove he can stay on the field for an entire season. Gonzalez and Hamilton profile as role players now being asked to punch way above their weight.
That doesn’t begin to address the lack of pop, or the yawning leadership void that Bregman’s departure has created.
At the outset of the offseason, the Red Sox publicly acknowledged they needed additional power to not only compete in the division but to advance deeper in October. They acquired Willson Contreras, but his production merely matches what they got out of Bregman a year ago. Offensively speaking, the Sox are back to ground zero.
The Red Sox’ unwillingness to get uncomfortable in pursuit of another championship has relegated them to a sort of baseball middle ground — interesting and maybe even competitive, yes, but unable to take the extra step that would vault them to the next level.
Worse, they’ve squandered the good will that they assiduously rebuilt a year ago, when for a brief moment in time, they convinced the fan base that they cared again.
And, as usual, they have no one to blame but themselves.