In public and behind the scenes, conflicting information is flying back and forth in the wake of the Cubs’ signing of third baseman Alex Bregman. The arrival of Bregman displaces third baseman Matt Shaw, pushing him (for now, at least) into a utility role for the 2026 Cubs. As the team ponders the endgame of its offseason, however, the front office has received multiple calls about both Nico Hoerner and Matt Shaw. How likely either is to move depends almost entirely on whom you ask, and the rest of the equation is when you ask them. This is a fluid situation—perhaps surprisingly so.

Sources familiar with the team’s thinking say Chicago would prefer to deal Shaw, all else being equal. Though Hoerner can become a free agent after 2026 and will cost them $12 million this year, the level of organizational faith in him is much higher than in Shaw, whose uneven 2025 campaign called into question both the magnitude of his talent and his makeup. The younger player’s stock is down slightly after a year in which he got a false start in the majors, found his footing in late spring, and got hot just after the All-Star break, but which ended with a thud in late September and October. Still, his trade value is higher than Hoerner’s, and after trading top prospects (Zyhir Hope, Cam Smith and Owen Caissie, most notably) in multiple deals over the past two years, the Cubs could use an infusion of talent in their farm system to go with the core they’ve built at the big-league level. Trading Shaw could get them a player who helps in 2026 (for instance, they need better optionable pitching depth) and a prospect who bolsters that farm.

One team stands out as the top candidate to match up with the Cubs on a trade for Shaw: the Kansas City Royals. They need help at second base, where Jonathan India is penciled in for this season. India batted .233/.323/.346 in 2025, struggling mightily after an early-season plunking that briefly sidelined him with a concussion. Though only entering his age-29 season, India is aging rapidly at the plate, and he’s barely a viable defender at second base. Shaw projects to hit .240/.310/.408 this year, according to early and simple Marcel projections. India projects to hit .242/.335/.381, with his superior on-base skills making up for less slugging, but Shaw is a far better defender and baserunner. The Royals have the left side of their infield locked up for the long haul, and in Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone, they appear set for a handoff at first base sometime in the next three years. A young, controllable second baseman would finish the puzzle for them.

Kansas City also has interesting pieces to offer in trade. The Cubs were interested in both of the Royals’ first-round picks last summer, had they slid into the second round. Outfielder Sean Gamble and shortstop Josh Hammond were both plucked from the high-school ranks, and neither will be ready for the majors any time in the next two years, but the Cubs’ system needs better depth, and those guys are the caliber of prospect available in a deal like this one, where the team trading them is getting a long-term, big-league piece, but not a star.

If Chicago could pry loose Gamble, Hammond or catching prospect Blake Mitchell, it would get a conversation started. The negotiation would then have to pivot to the player who would replace Shaw on the big-league roster and help the Cubs in their push toward a pennant this season. Utility man Nick Loftin is the kind of bench piece Chicago would need if they jettisoned Shaw, but he has limited value because he’s not a candidate to play everyday for a contender. Starter Kris Bubic, in whom the Cubs had interest last summer before his elbow began barking and the Royals pulled him off the trade market, has just one year of team control remaining, but his pitch mix appeals to the Cubs’ coaching and analytics staff.

However surprising it might be to most big-market fans, though, the Royals are in win-now mode. They want to maximize the value of their time with Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel García and ace starter Cole Ragans. Although they might not be in a position to take on his full salary, the team would prefer Hoerner to Shaw. The Cubs would have to get more help for 2026 to give up Hoerner—perhaps both Bubic and Loftin—but the Royals are one team who might pay the required premium. 

For Hoerner, the Cubs would have to get a difference-making pitcher to pull the trigger on a deal, while trading Shaw would be more about aligning things better and amassing talent. The Red Sox, Twins, Yankees and Giants all could have interest in one of the two infielders, in the right deals. Other teams could enter the mix, depending on how some free-agent sweepstakes turn out, but a source in another front office said Wednesday that the Cubs are gathering information quickly, with an eye toward making a decision soon about whether to trade either infielder or proceed with the roster as-is. In that context, the Royals are perhaps the team with whom they could most easily line up. It’s more likely that both players are still Cubs come Opening Day than that they’re dealt, but if that changes, keep an eye on the Royals.